For the record, I don't gave a degree and never went to university.
This was basically a big you to the establishment for a price that no one has really been able to calculate, the reason being is that no presidential campaign has ever been so scant on actual policy. It's been lowest common denominator rhetoric that that won because firstly it's the easiest to broadcast and secondly because it energized a public angry at elites at the status quo.
White low information voters did vote for Trump in overwhelming numbers (over two thirds) but the most shocking demographic for me was the % of women that went with him - hilarious didn't even get a 10 point lead with women and when you put gate or all the sexist things he said in to context, you realize the depths of dislike for clinton.
Then factor in that the black trunout was substantially less than Obama (completely understandable) and this massive Latino vote was completely overestimated, and you have an erosion of support from her base vs an energized antiestablishment movement that don't really care about policy, more and out shoving it to the man.
I'm very present of mind to know that Trump won't follow through on 80% of the rhetoric he spouted, but the truly worrying thing to me is that the GOP now have house, senate and pres. While trump doesn't have much in terms of policy, you better believe that the GOP do.
As for polling, I think nate silver and th other polling companies will take take a huge hit from this; There's no data or backpedaling that can adequately explain how he got it so wrong, so far beyond the margin of error. His last blog post 24 hours before the race was "there's five paths to throw presidency, an they all favor clinton".
In hindsight, if clinton rrally is that hated, I doubt much of anything would have got done with a gop opposition that strong.
If anything, it gives a strong signal that the dnc really need to implode and start again from scratch.
Newsom 2020
Jon_Snow
quote:
Originally posted by Alex
I've been following US politics since I was kid, son. I pretty much exclusively watch US news and have a lot of family in the US.
Get the outta here with your garbage.
I get it you're mad and you are here to scold us. :rolleyes:
Alex
You let it happen bud, maybe 4 years of will wake your country up from liberal to redneck.
wotyzoid
Wait, what? I'm almost positive this election just proved the country is still pretty redneck.
Alex
quote:
Originally posted by wotyzoid
Wait, what? I'm almost positive this election just proved the country is still pretty redneck.
Didn't mean liberals should become redneck, meant both sides need to re-think things.
r5a
yall need to chill
Serial Killer
for the record, my account was locked for the past 3 days...
quote:
Originally posted by DJ RANN
Bow down to Serial killer
kiss the ring bitches...
quote:
Originally posted by DJ RANN
Yep, uneducated white males came out in force like no one expected.
??
quote:
Originally posted by DJ RANN
For the record, I don't have a degree and never went to university.
lmao
SYSTEM-J
quote:
Originally posted by DJ RANN
As for polling, I think nate silver and th other polling companies will take take a huge hit from this; There's no data or backpedaling that can adequately explain how he got it so wrong, so far beyond the margin of error. His last blog post 24 hours before the race was "there's five paths to throw presidency, an they all favor clinton"
Well it's probably because he was deliberately massaging his statistics away from the truth to make them more entertaining... Oh wait.
And Alex is starting to sound very much like a complete bell end.
TranceElevation
Great analysis about why Trump won 5:22
DJ RANN
quote:
Originally posted by Woony
If woman and blacks hadn't underperformed like they did, 98% wouldn't have been terribly unrealistic, given how close the election was now in some of the key swingstates. I don't think anyone was banking on them underperforming, given how vile Trump was to these demographics. Maybe it was a bit naive in hindsight but who knows.
I think that's it but you can't take away the fact that women didn't go with Hilary in anywhere near the numbers projected. She only performed around 8% better in most states than trump for women as a whole. That in itself is staggering.
The underperforming black vote also chipped away at some of it, the protest votes (Gary Johnson and Jill) chipped away a little more (and moreso from HRC than DT) but really the killer was that white people voted like crazy for trump and there simply wasn't enough minorities to make a difference.
If you look at the maps in the battlegound states, it's shocking how polarized they are. Florida went completely red apart from small extremely dense concentrations in Miami, tampa, orlando and tallahassee . Same with Philly.
As we digest this, I'm realizing that it's a good thing: If Hilary couldn't win with all her resources then truly she wasn't meant to, and even if she had, it would be the the biggest political clockblock for years anyway and nothing would get done. It would be like the Obama blockade on steroids.
The thing is, Trump now, not only has to run a country with 75 pending lawsuits including rape of a minor (court date this afternoon) and Trump University Class Action and Criminal charges on the 28th Nov, but he also has to make america great again.
He has to build that wall. He has to deport 5 million people. He has to bring back all those jobs that went to china, as well as introduce massive tax tariffs on all chinese imports, and has to repeal the healthcare of 20 million people and put Hilary in jail, and withdraw from the Paris climate accord.
Because that's what he's promised again and again.
And that's the kicker. None of this will happen and after 4 years of no progress and probably a worse economy to boot.
he's got to bring all that or the mob won't be happy.
DJ RANN
quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Well it's probably because he was deliberately massaging his statistics away from the truth to make them more entertaining... Oh wait.
Well given that Nate spent thousands of hours using data for predictions that turned out to completely and utterly wrong, doesn't mean he wasn't fudging them. If anything, it proves the point he was part of the whole self reciprocating parade of nonsense focussed on this election. I mean Kelly anne conway herself was genuinely shocked that they won lol.
Serial Killer
quote:
Originally posted by DJ RANN
did you happen to catch when secret service whispered "it's over" in her old and hairy ear ? and then dispersed ? amazing
