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"Vote Hillary Clinton 2016" is dead. Long live "Vote Hillary Clinton 2016"! (pg. 14)
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| SYSTEM-J |
| The irony is that his "degrees" jab was presumably a reference to Lews, who is about as far away from a SJW stereotype as it gets. And now Clinton has proven to be useless as electoral Trump repellent, your earlier idealism doesn't seem that unreasonable. The biggest "what if" remains whether the angry working classes would have swallowed a "socialist" like Sanders. He would certainly have the anti-elite credentials. |
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| wotyzoid |
I think that "what if" is actually not that big. I think the sandman would have murdered him in the debates and it would have been done. A lot of these idiots, and I'm gonna call them idiots, because I'm a ing American and I can, are just fed up and feeling things that even I have felt to some degree in my teens growing up in this country. Things that I grew up identifying with sub-consciously just knowing that I was born here. I have always wanted to be back here since I was little. It's hard to put it into words with my vocabulary, but the feeling that it's just not working, and we're the richest country in the world and you look at the world through your facebook lens at, I don't know, Switzerland and it's that what the feeling. What are we doing wrong, electing the status quo. We wanna be the best. Through joy or grief.
So to sum it up, I think it's 2016, we're not really stupid, we just play stupid. Being cast as a "socialist" doesn't necessarily have the weight as being cast as "corrupt". I personally think Bernie would have clobbered him, because so many people that could have made the difference were just fed up with the DNC by the end of this thing. Young people like me, people that I went to school with. I'm not saying I represent the electorate but that says something. So people just went in there saying, " this", "burn the whole thing down", "drain the swamp". And people stayed home.
In football terms, to me, it was Chelsea getting rid of Jose. I wasn't for it, but what the can I do. Luckily there was someone capable of replacing. In the case of this election, the choice was not so wise. I think it's pretty obvious, but it's gonna take some people a few months it seems to realize it. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
He gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning, and Trump won. That isn't "completely and utterly wrong". If he'd given Trump a 1.5% chance of winning and Trump won, we'd be talking a 1 in 66 event happening, and then you could say he was probably completely wrong with his methodology. But a 1 in 3 shot is pretty likely, and he was one of the only ones to give Trump a realistic chance.
The people who got their methodology "completely wrong" were the guys you backed, when you claimed Silver's methodology didn't match theirs because he was trying to create artificial drama by weighting things towards Trump. Turns out he had a better weighting for Trump because he read the data better.
If you read that 538 article, his description of what might happen if a 3 point margin of error went in Trump's favour is actually remarkably close to what happened:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ome-up-clinton/
Clinton did actually win the popular vote by a slender margin, Trump did win Florida and North Carolina, and Clinton was ultimately let down by a slump in African-American turnout. |
Sorry, but trying to dumb down the numbers to "1 in 3" may make it seem like it was of course a possibility, but that's not actually the case here:
He had Hilary at 73% the day before and by 8pm when only 30% of the results were in she was down to 20%.
You can say all you want that nate silver (and I really don't understand why you're defending him - he's getting slaughtered by every think tank and news agency right now for ing it up so badly) predicted a slim chance of Trump winning but that's not what happened.
He only once in 6 months had clinton drop below 270 electoral votes, and most of the time was between 280 and 320, and the truth was Trump is going to end up with at least 302 and clinton's 220.
This wasn't some margin of error outside prediction model he had. The vote didn't turn out for her in blue states as Nate predicted and the white female vote overwhelmingly went for . she lost Arkansas, their home state, and lost Michigan, a blue stronghold.
She basically lost ground on nearly every demographic of wmoen over Obama:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...and-female-vot/
No one saw that coming - none of the pollsters and certainly not Nate Silver. He got grilled on NBC last night and just didn't have the answers.
After headlines such as this:
http://jewishbusinessnews.com/2016/...538-is-screwed/
Nate's now going in to full damage control spin mode with his site headline being "what a difference 2% makes!".
I'll fully admit I got it wrong as did every single polling company but I'd stop trying to sugar coat the quagmire that 538's in right now. They had all the data, played with it endlessly and they came no where close to predicting last night's result. |
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| wotyzoid |
| RANN stop trying to save face. |
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| wotyzoid |
| To quote Michael Moore, and I can't believe I'm doing it, " I used my vote as an anger management tool." An that's exactly what happened. |
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| wotyzoid |
| I just wanna be candid here, I haven't really processed this whole thing yet. I've been drinking scotch and smoking heavily since about 10 am. |
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| Vivid Boy |
| The US government is a slow moving machine. most of his crazy ideas are going to get blocked. It'll be business as usual with the random crazy speech here and there. Then everyone will make fun of it, we'll all have a good laugh and next thing you know 4 years are done and its time for hulk hogan to give this presidency thing ago... and you all know voting hulk hogan doesnt seem that crazy right now. it could happen |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I also resented the smug tone of Woony and RANN when they opined that "smart people" always suspected that Clinton would win by 4% and the poll uncertainty was just a media circus, so I'm taking what grim satisfaction I can out of this -show by pointing out that my fears were bang on the money, and that sticking up for Nate Silver over the bull Huffington Post was also bang on the money.
Do you mean I "stayed on the sidelines" because I didn't fall into the parameters of your angry little strawman of the "smug liberal elite" posting in this thread, and instead remained fairly realistic despite my partisan stake in the outcome?
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I think you misconstrue too easily; what I said, page after page is that this whole campaign was a total media cirucs and 538 were playing to that.
And look what the happened. It's wasn't even close to all the technical models that we were endlessly bombarded with day after day and and the polls swapped position like rabbits making a porno.
I personally couldn't see how 538 were getting these swings given the data (much of which they provided) and the media were feeding in to it all, just lapping it up. Given the final polls he was predicting a small swing to Trump but 538's headline was as I said "Five paths to victory - they all favor Clinton" Not one path for Trump, who trounced clinton. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by wotyzoid
RANN stop trying to save face. |
I'm not the one who's butthurt about the loss or still pining for early loser Bernie.
I was literally the first person on here to admit we were all wrong, the polling was wrong and gave it up to soulstar and serial killer for being right all along.
I'm also not torn up that she lost. I would have liked to see a female pres, but mainly I'm just really worried for one of my employees who is on the dream act. I may have to find another way to sponsor her if he tears up the dream act. oh and the other thing is the supreme court and federal court appointments. That can have repercussions for generations.
But other than that, let's see what Trump can do? He wanted it, now he's got to deliver. It will either be an massive disaster or a he'll "make america great".
it, it is what it is and I'm open to it.
| quote: | Originally posted by wotyzoid
I just wanna be candid here, I haven't really processed this whole thing yet. I've been drinking scotch and smoking heavily since about 10 am.
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Get over it. It's not like the federal government actually makes huge difference in your day to day life. |
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| Jon_Snow |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vivid Boy
The US government is a slow moving machine. most of his crazy ideas are going to get blocked. It'll be business as usual with the random crazy speech here and there. Then everyone will make fun of it, we'll all have a good laugh and next thing you know 4 years are done and its time for hulk hogan to give this presidency thing ago... and you all know voting hulk hogan doesnt seem that crazy right now. it could happen |
Just don't ask me to vote for The Sheik and his vaunted Camel Clutch. I've also never trusted Mr. Fuji |
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| Vector A |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vivid Boy
The US government is a slow moving machine. most of his crazy ideas are going to get blocked. It'll be business as usual with the random crazy speech here and there. |
Things tend to move a bit faster when one party controls all three branches of the government. |
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| soulstar606 |
irrespective of all the butthurt in this thread though. I think it speaks VOLUMES of the character of your fearless female leader, that she didnt even show up in fdront of her entire election night audience,
thousands of people, all there crying after she loses, and she doesnt even show up to thank any of them for their hard work, and their passion.
she instead sends that person to speak like the slimey lawyer he is and tell everyone to go home. pathetic really. and that should at leasdt make some liberals think twice about the candidate they were supporting. who WILL btw be prosecuted ffor the CGI or foundation. not to mention the ongoing email scandal.
anyway. im done with this . I wasnt even following any news or politics pre August of thie year. I dont even watch politics or news. it's just a big show for the feeble minded. the MSM just race baits and pits all of you against eachother. gets you focused on your differences instead of uniting you like a REAL leader does, like Trump.
politics. and everyone. |
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