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The FIFA 2018 World Cup Thread (pg. 5)
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by Jon_Snow
I’m disappointed that the US didn’t make the tourney, robs me of the opportunity to complain how poorly they’re playing. |
You can still brag they haven't lost a single match :p
Also, America probably has the best home kit out of all teams that didn't make it this year. If I didn't have so many I'd probably cop one myself :) |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| This whole tournament is mad. Predictions and favourites be damned. |
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| sensorium |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
You can still brag they haven't lost a single match :p
Also, America probably has the best home kit out of all teams that didn't make it this year. If I didn't have so many I'd probably cop one myself :) |
Aren't theirs and Italy's supposed to be cheaper right now because they didn't make it? |
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| Lira |
Reality diverged from the most likely outcome predicted by FiveThirtyEight just 38% of the time thus far. If Uruguay and Spain win today, the number drops to 31%, which I guess is not that bad for an algorithm.
I guess it looks weird because not a single one of the top 4 teams (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Spain) won in their first matches but, except for Argentina, they were all playing the second best teams in their group. Colombia played with fewer players and Senegal aren't really that much worse than Poland (and probably has better football tradition, as Senegal is the country that brought down France in the 2002 World Cup opening match... and France were the defending champions).
It should all go back to "normal" now... Except for Argentina, which is now going against stronger teams, and possibly Germany.
| quote: | Originally posted by sensorium
Aren't theirs and Italy's supposed to be cheaper right now because they didn't make it? |
Not in Brazil, they're all the same price. Well, not now anyway :p
After the tournament, in case there are a few left, maybe. Because of the exchange rate, jerseys here are cheaper than in the US anyway. |
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| DJ RANN |
This WP is wide open right now. The only two teams that were expected to play well and are doing well are spain and portugal, but given what's happened so far, Iran will probably win lol.
Russia seem to be playing ok, but they've basically had a pass in the group stages, so we'll see what happens when they go up against a half decent team. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Senegal aren't really that much worse than Poland (and probably has better football tradition, as Senegal is the country that brought down France in the 2002 World Cup opening match... and France were the defending champions). |
As my better half is Polish, I should defend their honour and point out that this is categorically false. Senegal have qualified for just two World Cups in their entire history. Poland have qualified for eight World Cups and have twice been semi-finalists, finishing in 3rd place overall on both occasions. There's no question that they have a better footballing tradition.
For me the big surprise is how few of the big teams are even playing particularly well. Usually you get two or three teams who look the part very early on. We still have no idea who could be considered a favourite so far, which will give the smaller teams a lot more hope. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
As my better half is Polish, I should defend their honour and point out that this is categorically false. Senegal have qualified for just two World Cups in their entire history. Poland have qualified for eight World Cups and have twice been semi-finalists, finishing in 3rd place overall on both occasions. There's no question that they have a better footballing tradition. |
All right, I should probably have phrased that as "a better football tradition after the fall of the Berlin Wall" :p
You definitely follow European football more closely than I possibly could, but you probably agree that most countries in Eastern Europe, football wise, sort of became altogether different entities after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR. Yugoslavia and the USSR were top mid-tier teams that frequently reached the quarter-finals. Sure, they broke up into smaller entities, but Bulgaria reached the semis in the following World Cup (1994) and pretty much vanished afterwards. That's why I didn't take Communist Poland into account (and I probably should have when I said that without any hedges). The Poland I grew up watching never left the group stage.
I'm reluctant to take World Cup appearances at face value, though, because CAF has about as many members as UEFA, but less than half as many World Cup slots. Senegal currently has the best ELO rating among all African teams, whereas Poland is number 14 in Europe - if both confederations had an equal number of slots, Senegal would've made it either way, but Poland would be in a much more difficult situation. Of course, this would all be speculation.
I am, however, optimistic about the English squad. Am I bracing for the heartbreak? Yes. Will I take the plunge until then? Also yes. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
You definitely follow European football more closely than I possibly could, but you probably agree that most countries in Eastern Europe, football wise, sort of became altogether different entities after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR. |
Some of them did, but Poland didn't change geographically when it became a democratic republic in 1989, and from what I'm reading now it didn't have any real effect on the country's football league system either.
What I do know is that modern Poles very much see the 1970s and '80s as the golden era for their national side. They're very proud of that era and the modern team is always referenced against it. That period also coincided with increasing resistance to the Communist ruling powers, and I would imagine the majority of Poles would be pretty angry if you tried telling them their sporting achievements from that era somehow don't count anymore because they were under de facto Communist occupation at the time. |
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| DJ RANN |
Well, I was going to chime in and say Portugal and Spain are at least holding true to their "elite" status, but Morocco actually gave Portugal a hard time and if not for some great saves, that game would have been a draw or loss.
and now Spain is being locked down by Iran, and you can see the frustration of the Spaniards. Still 30 mins to play but Iran keep this up or god forbid score, it would be a major upset.
I'm loving to WC. It's the most random tourney I've ever seen (well except that time Greece won the Euro, when they were hosting funnily enough - wonder if the Russians have been taking all the vitamins - they seem to be scoring a lot and apparently have run more distance in either of their games than any other team :crazy: ). |
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| SYSTEM-J |
Greece won it when it was hosted by Portugal, RANN. Greece hosted the Olympics last year.
Given Russia's record of doping in every sport going, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they had some chemical assistance behind their unexpectedly great form. They'd use performance enhancing drugs at Eurovision if they could.
Meanwhile, Spain have scored and Iran have realised they can actually play football if they try after all. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Some of them did, but Poland didn't change geographically when it became a democratic republic in 1989, and from what I'm reading now it didn't have any real effect on the country's football league system either. |
Wait, if it had no impact on their football league, is there any other reason Poland suddenly went from semifinals regular to not leaving the group stage ever since?
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
What I do know is that modern Poles very much see the 1970s and '80s as the golden era for their national side. They're very proud of that era and the modern team is always referenced against it. That period also coincided with increasing resistance to the Communist ruling powers, and I would imagine the majority of Poles would be pretty angry if you tried telling them their sporting achievements from that era somehow don't count anymore because they were under de facto Communist occupation at the time. |
It's not that they "don't count". Of course they do, but had Brazil won nothing after the Pelé-era, it would make sense to think of Brazilian national team as two radically different beasts for political reasons (as quality did deteriorate during the military dictatorship), and I assumed that's what happened in Poland. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Wait, if it had no impact on their football league, is there any other reason Poland suddenly went from semifinals regular to not leaving the group stage ever since? |
This is extremely tenuous, Marcus. It's hardly unusual for a middling European team to produce a golden generation or period in a larger trend of mediocrity, and Poland were just as bad in the '50s and '60s under Communism as they were in the '90s as a democracy. Even assuming their success was somehow aided by the Communist regime, for which you'd have to provide some compelling evidence, it doesn't mean Poland became an "altogether different entity" when they transitioned. And don't you think it's oxymoronic to disregard results from a certain time period when trying to ascertain a nation's "footballing tradition"? Germany still have four stars on their kit even though their nation has changed far more dramatically than Poland since 1990.
Poland has had a very troubled history, and didn't exist on a map for over a century, but the Polish still regard themselves as having a consistent cultural identity dating back many hundreds of years, even under various occupations and puppet regimes. I think you'd be more sensitive here if you just admitted that you didn't really know what you were talking about when you made your original assertion. |
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