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Official NCAA Football Thread (pg. 38)
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| NeoPhono |
My early predictions:
Rose Bowl-
USC 28 - Texas 35 (-7)
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech 17 - Penn State 24 (-3)
Sugar Bowl
LSU 48 - W. Virginia 21 (+21)
Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame 10 - Ohio State 31 (-17) |
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| CraveTheRave |
Give me your honest opinions people. As we all know, pretty much it will be Ohio St. Vs Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Most people are not giving ND a chance, saying they are overrated, no quality wins, loss to Mich St., etc etc. Personally, I've seen them play a lot and really like the talent they have and that they show, the coaching, everything I really do like about them.
My question is, say ND beats Ohio St., either by a blowout or by 3 points... will you acknowledge that they are actually really good, but just didn't have a tough schedule or will you make excuses and say Ohio St. didn't belong there anyway and Oregon should have been??
I really curious to see what the majority of people think? |
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| Mebot |
There's always going to be a "what-if" scenario.. what if Oregon plays instead of Notre Dame? i think you'll have both sides of people, arguing for Notre Dame and against Notre Dame.
Personally, if Notre Dame wins, I don't think i'll be saying that they had a particulary tough year and they shouldn't have been in the bowl...rather i'd say, congratulations, it's been a long time since Notre Dame has been in a highly-prized bowl game. This was their year. |
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| discobiscuit |
My BCS bowl prediction:
Rose Bowl ~ PSU 24 texas 17
CONFIRMED!
gnite,
bisco |
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| tribu |
I was thinking that to see UCLA beat USC would not be expected but not fully suprising. I think that even if they did lose, USC would get the Rose Bowl bid, ala Oklahoma in 2003. When you compare the team's that USC, PSU, LSU and VT lost too, USC or VT has the best claim to the title.
If USC did drop, LSU would have to ream georgia in the SEC title game to have a chance to leap Penn State. All of a sudden, our resident hornblower looks like he may be on to something. Could PSU be in the Rose Bowl if Drew Olson can pull the upset? |
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| tribu |
Heres a simulated 16 team playoff witht the current BCS rankings:
1 : USC - 56
16 : Texas Tech - 14
8 : Notre Dame - 35
9 : Miami - 24
4 : LSU - 28
13 : Georgia - 29 OT
5 : Virginia Tech - 10
12 : UCLA - 21
3 : Penn State - 45
14 : TCU - o
6 : Ohio State - 35
11 West Virginia - 31
7 : Oregon - 21
10 : Auburn - 28
2 : Texas - 24
15 : Alabama - 7
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1 : USC - 35
8 : Notre Dame - 36
13 : Georgia - 27
12 : UCLA - 33 4OT
3 : Penn State - 10
6 : Ohio State - 17
2 : Texas - 48
10 : Auburn - 37
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8 : Notre Dame - 24
12 : UCLA - 37
6 : Ohio State - 42
2 : Texas - 46
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12 : UCLA - 20
2 : Texas - 34 |
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| discobiscuit |
penn states schedule ranking is tougher than lsu, vt, and usc's ~ if usc loses, penn state will play texas. look at what happend when miami, alabama, and vt lost... u lose late in the season, you get booted! when alabama (3) lost to lsu (4), look what happend to their rank... when vt lost to miami.... when miami lost... if usc loses, they will not drop to #2...
plus from what i hear, ucla has no chance of beating usc (but i'm praying for a miriacle..)
come on now... your saying if usc loses, they could drop to #2 or lsu/vt could jump penn state? your kidding right? why would lsu/vt jumping psu depend on usc losing? if they are gonna jump psu, they are gonna jump psu... |
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| tribu |
| quote: | Originally posted by discobiscuit
plus from what i hear, ucla has no chance of beating usc (but i'm praying for a miriacle..)
come on now... your saying if usc loses, they could drop to #2 or lsu/vt could jump penn state? your kidding right? why would lsu/vt jumping psu depend on usc losing? if they are gonna jump psu, they are gonna jump psu... |
UCLA definitely has a chance to be USC. This game is at UCLA (means little, I know). Drew Olson, UCLA's quarterback, is the top passer (efficiency) in the nation. UCLA is 5th in the nation in scoring, and they've had 3 weeks to rest. Finally, this is a rivalry game, which means things like records and rankings get thrown out the window.
Let's say USC loses to #12 UCLA by a point. Here is how the 1 loss teams stack up.
USC 7-1(11-1) - Lost to #12 UCLA (ex: )30-29
Beat : #24 Oregon, #14 Arizona State, #9 Notre Dame, #16 Fresno State.
Penn State - Lost to Michigan 27-25
Beat #18 Minnesota, #6 Ohio State, #14 Wisconsin
Louisiana State - Lost to Tennessee 30-27
Beat : #15 Arizona St. #11 Florida, #16 Auburn, #4 Alabama, # 13 Georgia
Virginia Tech - Lost to #5 Miami 27-7
Thoroughly throttled everyone else they played (with one exception) including #15 Georgia Tech, #13 Boston College
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Why USC is in, even if they lose
If we rank the teams our one loss teams lost to, they would probably look something like this:
UCLA
Miami
Michigan
Tennessee
That is my first clue that USC would be able to stay afloat, with a close (less than 8) loss to UCLA. Secondly, USC is an offensive jauggernaut. In a bowl game it's not always about who the best team is; it's about what pairing will attract the most interest and fan base. I would deing to say that most of the sportswriters, fans, and general public would prefer a USC/Texas title game to any of the other options. USC is about 30 minutes from the Rose Bowl, Penn State is about 48 hours. While Penn State fans travel above averagely for a bowl game, there's no way they will fill the rose bowl the way USC fans will, even with the national title on the line. Beyond all that, USC has beaten more ranked teams by bigger margains than penn state, lsu, or virginia tech.
Why Penn State gets the bid
You're number 3 and #1 loses their last game of the season, thus you jump up. Tradition is on Penn State's side. The Nittany Lions dominated a high ranked Buckeye team at home and finished strong, beating their last 4 opponents by a combined 101 points. They're this years feel-good story after everyone hass been calling for Joe Pa's head over the last 3 or 4 years, and to finish up in the national title game. Beat OhioState by 7 when Texas could only beatthem by 3, setting up an interesting matchup.
Why LSU gets the bid
Basically, they dont. Unless, and this is very possible, they destroy Georgia in the SEC title game. The Dawgs have a strong team this year, and are ranked 13th. If LSU totally runs away with the game, they've put themselves in a good position to jump Penn State and bid for the title. They'll have beaten the most ranked teams, and their loss came earliest in the season of these teams. They also played the "strongest" non-conference schedule of these 4. They're also a feel-good story with hurrican Katrina, but with the financial effects of the hurricane, BCS planners are going to wonder how well LSU can travel.
Why Virginia Tech deserves to go
They dont. They have a good team, but they're still young as their flop in the Miami game showed. They played a weak non-conference schedule and had trouble putting away 6-5 N.C. State.
Why UCLA deserves to face Texas
You've beaten #1 and stopped the 30-some game winning streak. You've gone 10-1 in a challenging Pac-10. Why don't you deserve to play Texas for the national title? UCLA played a significantly much harder non-conference schedule than any of these 4. They put up big bumbers all year. Their defense is weak, but it's not like USC is a brick wall. This is overall poor rationale, and theyll get a BCS game, but no rose bowl.
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All in all, I think Texas wins big. If USC loses, I think they're still in the title game, unless it's a real ugly loss. Penn State has the best shot, but with them not having played in 2 or 3 weeks, it 's easy to forget about them, especially if LSU can destroy Georgia. You've asked if these teams won't jump PSU regardless of a USC loss. I say no. If USC does lose and the voters dont put them one-two with Texas, alot of thought is going to into who gets to be #2, and alot of those voters are going to be watching LSU in the SEC title game this weekend. They may not be so quick to have LSU jump Penn State, because unless it involves the #1 or #2 ranking, it's essentially irrelevant: PSU is already BCS bound, and assuming LSU wins, they will be too. |
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| discobiscuit |
| you guys do put a lot of work into your posts and really know your stuff... i'm just a die hard psu fan... basically all i can do is wait to see what happens |
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| Mebot |
| quote: | Originally posted by tribu
Why Virginia Tech deserves to go
They dont. They have a good team, but they're still young as their flop in the Miami game showed. They played a weak non-conference schedule and had trouble putting away 6-5 N.C. State.
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Well, technically N.C. State was VTs first game so the standings for both teams were 0-0.
But don't forget about Virginia Tech's win over West Virginia. They weren't ranked then, but look at WVU now. About to clinch the Big East and ranked # 11. A win in hostile Morgantown is a quality win! |
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| tribu |
| quote: | Originally posted by Mebot
Well, technically N.C. State was VTs first game so the standings for both teams were 0-0.
But don't forget about Virginia Tech's win over West Virginia. They weren't ranked then, but look at WVU now. About to clinch the Big East and ranked # 11. A win in hostile Morgantown is a quality win! |
They're a quality team, and they deserve their #5 ranking, but I don't think theyre the best of the 1-loss teams. To say you you beat the Big East champion isn't the same as it used to be...
For VT to be in it, I think theyd have to have played at least a #15 in a non-conference game and win. Their non-conf was pretty horrendous (Marshall (4-7), Ohio University (4-7) and N.C. State really look bad). If they had played Miami closer, they would deserve it, but they came out totally flat. |
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| Mebot |
Miami will forever be our bane for the 2005 season. It's unfortunate that no matter what the argument is for VT it always comes down to the loss against Miami.
I see what you're saying about the lack of non-conference play. Schedules are made what, years or at least 2 years in advance? Just coming to the ACC from the Big East is a big transition, so while trying to phase out our old rivals (such as the Mountaineers) we have to make room for new ones.
BTW N.C. State was a conference game. Bantering over what should happen and who should win and who's the best and stuff like that is what makes this thread great.
It's unfortunate that the ACC just didn't have the caliber of teams this year to make our schedule a little stronger. Aside from Miami, no other team has proven to be worthy of a top 10 ranking. Florida State, who is usually in the top 10 every year isn't even in the top 25 and we're playing them for the ACC championship. That's pretty sad because it's a lose-lose situation for VT. Win, we stay where we are, lose and FSU goes on to a bowl game with a horrible 7-4 record.
Conference championship games are curse in a way. Teams that should be deserving of a title put everything on the risk for one last game. LSU could lose to Georgia, Texas could lose to Colorado and VT could lose to FSU and thus throw a monkey wrench into everything.
Taking that into consideration is why I think VT and LSU is more deserving than Penn State. We both play one more extra game, an extra game where anything can happen. Penn State doesn't have this. Playing an extra game strengthens both our schedules and I think that needs to be taken into effect. |
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