Originally posted by guerra-monstru
But the pipeline does not go through S. Ossetia?
Absolutely not, the pipeline does not go through South Ossetia or other restive provinces for one reason alone: Georgia has not held control over South Ossetia since early 1990s and the pipeline was built after 2004, I think. The pipeline is about 50-100 km away from the southernmost part of South Ossetia.
quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
What's in in for Russia? Protecting this territory that's not even bigger than Luxembourg and is populated by only some 70-80,000 people. I think the Russian leadership believes they are being surrounded Western satellite states. Hence Russia wants to send bombers to Cuba and foster a strong relationship with Venezuela, Iran, and China. The classic age-old east versus west conflict.
Good question. I think Medvedev is worried that if Russia backs down in this situation, the domino effect will result in entire Russian influence pushed out of the whole Southern Caucasus. Russia might even lose Armenia, its critical ally in the region. So even though South Ossetia has no considerable resources or the population, Medvedev knows that if he doesnt do something, Georgia will become a NATO heaven with dozens of American bases and Georgia will forevermore become a wall separating Russia from Middle East and Iran. Which is what NATO and USA are trying to do, thats why they trained and sent Saakashvilli to Georgia. This is a geo-political war, a proxy war for USA to once and for all shut off Russia from the region.
Russia has tried for over a decade to turn the rebellious provinces into some sort of protectorates without outright independence. But in the end it backfired so badly that Georgia became threatened and decided to join NATO to protect what it viewed as Russian support of the separatists, which is not far from the truth, actually. So Russia is partially at fault, even though it didnt fire a shot.
The problem is that Georgia couldn't wait until the republics come back to Georgia on their own - there were so many things Georgian government could have done to win over the hearts and minds of the rebellious provinces. Just like they won over Adjaria province, which was rebellious until 2004.
I managed to translate on my own the most recent Medvedev speech on this conflict. OMG! Medvedev's speech is pretty scary. He mentions that even Georgian peacekeepers have been shooting at Russian peacekeepers, and thats the final time Russia is going to sit and wait. Original video from:
" ... right now things happening in South Ossetia. I would like to say couple things about the situation. Russia is present in Georgia on absolutely lawful reasons, doing its peacekeeping duties according to the international treaties and agreements which were reached before, and was selected by the international community to be part of the peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. Our main duty, before and now, will be to develop and keep a peaceful solution to the conflict. Russia historically considered itself as a guarantor of peace and stability in the region, and will continue to be. Yesterday night, in South Ossetia, Georgian forces committed an act of aggression against Russian peacekeepers and civilians. What happened is a direct violation of international law and all the mandates which were given to Russia by the world community, as a partner in developing a peaceful solution to the situation. Actions by Georgian forces have resulted in deaths, including those of Russian peacekeepers. Situation got so bad, that Georgian peacekeepers, who worked alongside Russian peacekeepers, started shooting at their Russian counterparts, although they were assigned to keep peace in the region. Right now in South Ossetia civilians are dying, women, children, older elderly, and most of them are also Russian citizens. According to the Constitution and the laws, as a President of the Russian Federation, it is my duty to protect life and dignity of our citizens, no matter where they may be. The logic of the moves undertaken by us right now comes as a result of this situation. We will not allow those who murdered our citizens to escape from justice. Guilty (parties) will carry a deserved punishment. "
Analysis: Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali could prove 'reckless'
President timed action to coincide with Olympics, says academic
It has always been hard to work out who fired the first shot in any of the many conflicts that had broken out in the Caucasus.
Ever since June 1992, when the tiny mountain enclave of South Ossetia won the first round of its bid to detach itself from Georgia, the two sides have been intermittently at war.
But the flare-ups in the last decade have been skirmishes, and for a while it looked as though peace had broken out.
The weapons used today — tanks, multiple rocket launchers and fighter aircraft — made the fighting qualitatively different.
Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive.
It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before - it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a measure of nationalist pride.
The assault appears to be have carefully timed to coincide with the opening of the Olympics when the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, was in Beijing.
Tom de Waal, of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and an expert on the region, said: "Clearly there have been incidents on both sides, but this is obviously a planned Georgian operation, a contingency plan they have had for some time, to retake [the South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali.
"Possibly the Georgians calculated that, with Putin in Beijing, they could recapture the capital in two days and then defend it over the next two months, because the Russians won't take this lying down."
If Georgia calculated that Russia would be inhibited by Putin's presence at the Olympics, that soon backfired.
Within hours, the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, chaired a session of the security council in the Kremlin, ordering units of the 58th Russian army to retake Tskhinvali. The Russian president's military credentials are so weak - he had no other choice.
Many of the 75,000 inhabitants of Tskhinvali and its outlying villages are now Russian citizens, with passports and rights to settle in Russia.
Northern Ossetia, with whom the southern separatists want to join, is formally part of the Russian Federation. While Georgians view South Ossetia as a part of its sovereign territory, there is a rival Ossetian claim.
It predates the current authoritarian regime in the Kremlin, but still links the enclave to the mothership of the Russian Federation.
Jonathan Eyal, the director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), warned that all-out war between Russian and Georgia would amount to "the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism".
He described Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali as a brazen effort to humiliate the Russians.
"It is clearly a calculated gamble by the Georgians," he said.
"If they manage to overrun South Ossetia, where there are probably only around 1,000 Russian troops at the moment, they will have humiliated Russia and would have created a triumph for themselves.
"They will also have propelled the west into a diplomatic involvement on the ground."
Eyal claimed there was considerable sympathy among western powers over Georgia's difficult relationship with Russia.
He said the country was suffering from a deliberate "strategic fermentation" of the separatist movement by the superpower.
However, he warned that taking on Russia at a time when Medvedev was keen to establish his influence carried significant risk.
Russia could not afford to stand quietly by while Georgia made such a public assault on its troops stationed in the region, he said.
"There is an element of trying to call the Russians' bluff by assuming that the Russians will not be able to afford all-out war in Georgia," he added.
"I personally don't buy that … Putin cannot afford to be seen to be humiliated in such a brazen, public way. It's inconceivable that the Russians will sit quietly by.
"The only possible outcome is that either a ceasefire is negotiated and a mediation effort begins, or it goes out into an all-out war."
Eyal said he believed Georgia's move to strike South Ossetia would generate a mixed reaction from world powers.
He described a feeling that the country was "more sinned against than sinning" but that there was also significant frustration over the actions of its president.
"If it goes into an all out war, the predicament for the west is acute and the crisis would be the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism.
"It would be much worse than the Yugoslav wars, mainly because it has the old traditional element of an east-west confrontation.
"There is considerable sympathy for Georgia among western governments such as the US and London. It is clear that the Russians have fermented the separatist movement for a particular strategic purpose.
"There is also, however, an enormous amount of frustration with the reckless behaviour of the Georgian president at this moment."
DrUg_Tit0
quote:
Originally posted by guerra-monstru
But the pipeline does not go through S. Ossetia?
No but it's a reason why Georgia is so important for Russia. The separatist provinces were a sort of control that was supposed to keep Georgia in a position where the country's peace and integrity depended on Russian peacekeeping troops. As such, Georgia would be forced to obey russian demands regarding the transfer of oil. Now that Georgia decided to take away the leverage that Russia had on them by invading South Ossetia, Russia was forced to act since it would otherwise loose all mechanisms of control over Georgia.
The second thing that Russia might go for is to overthrow the georgian government. If it manages to install a more pro-russian regime, it would put a part of the pipeline under their control. Currently the pipeline goes through Georgia and Azerbaijan, and then on to Turkey. It avoids Armenia, which is a russian ally in the region, so Russia doesn't have any means of control over the pipeline. A regime change in either Georgia or Azerbaijan would change that. And georgian attack on South Ossetia gave them a perfect excuse to go for such a thing.
Third reason was already mentioned by Magnetonium. Russia has to show it's muscle, because if it doesn't other Caucasus peoples might see that as a weakness, which may in turn result in terrorism or separatist tensions. It is particularly important for Azerbaijan, since it has a large armenian populated separatist province of Nagorno Karabah.
Finally, the last reason why Russia got involved so fast is to push back Georgia from their potential membership in the Nato pact. If it let this go on, Georgia would restore its territorial integrity and would be free to join Nato any day.
Magnetonium
Latest updates from the conflict zone:
1) Russian troops have come in direct confrontation with Georgian forces in Tskhinvali, fierce battles, Russians retaken parts of the capital.
2) Hackers have decimated several prominent Georgian government websites, most notably taking down the one that posts updates on the situation in the conflict (Interior Ministry?).
3) Georgian leader, Saakashvilli had declared martial law across the country and called for mobilization. He also wants to recall 1,000 Georgian troops from Iraq to join the fight.
4) Around 1,000 volunteers from Abkhazia, North Ossetia, Russian Cossacks have crossed the border and joined the South Ossetian forces.
Mr. Tito, since when do you follow the Caucasus politics? :D I'd pretty much agree on what you said.
Russia has been retreating since 1989, and NATO has been advancing ever since. Recently NATO attempted to start a military base in Crimea, and luckily enough the large Russian population there drove them away. NATO has bases in Baltic republics. In Central Asia Americans have bases, some of which are being dismantled because Russians are coming around!
So its more of a struggle for Russia. She feels threatened by NATO - created to deter communist agression, it has since continued expanding towards Russian borders, and its a no-brainer why. And Georgian attack on Tskhinvali was pretty much the last straw. No more retreating. Time to show the world that Russia is no longer a pushover, and this time it actually has a pretty dam good reason to do it - to defend its citizens, its trapped and mangled peacekeeping force.
DrUg_Tit0
Hehe, it's not really that I follow Caucasus specifically, at least not significantly more than the rest of the world. But since everything is about oil, what I basically did was google up oil+pipeline+georgia and went on from there. Noticing it doesn't go through Armenia, I obviously concluded that Armenia is on russian side, and knowing they have an ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan which has a share of the pipeline, it pretty much put the whole region into perspective. Everything else is pretty much typical behaviour of countries contending over oil and world dominance :)
The only part of the equation that I still find unexplained is the rationale behind georgian attack. There are bad judgments happening all the time, but this one is so bad that there's either something more going on here or Saakasvili takes the prize as an idiot of the decade.
Krypton
Something in english...
jerZ07002
quote:
Originally posted by Magnetonium
My translation:
" ... right now things happening in South Ossetia. I would like to say couple things about the situation. Russia is present in Georgia on absolutely lawful reasons, doing its peacekeeping duties according to the international treaties and agreements which were reached before, and was selected by the international community to be part of the peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. Our main duty, before and now, will be to develop and keep a peaceful solution to the conflict. Russia historically considered itself as a guarantor of peace and stability in the region, and will continue to be. Yesterday night, in South Ossetia, Georgian forces committed an act of aggression against Russian peacekeepers and civilians. What happened is a direct violation of international law and all the mandates which were given to Russia by the world community, as a partner in developing a peaceful solution to the situation. Actions by Georgian forces have resulted in deaths, including those of Russian peacekeepers. Situation got so bad, that Georgian peacekeepers, who worked alongside Russian peacekeepers, started shooting at their Russian counterparts, although they were assigned to keep peace in the region. Right now in South Ossetia civilians are dying, women, children, older elderly, and most of them are also Russian citizens. According to the Constitution and the laws, as a President of the Russian Federation, it is my duty to protect life and dignity of our citizens, no matter where they may be. The logic of the moves undertaken by us right now comes as a result of this situation. We will not allow those who murdered our citizens to escape from justice. Guilty (parties) will carry a deserved punishment. "
first, thanks for all the information - i'm learning alot about a region i never cared about (i mean that sincerely). Second, that speech seems slightly sensationalist. Perhaps it would be more believable if the rhetoric was turned down a notch.
Magnetonium
Holly - update: Russian forces report losing two airplanes in the region: SU-25 and TU-25. Georgian forces claim to have captured one pilot. 58th Russian army is reporting to have retaken Tskhinvali.
Russian Pskov special paratroopers division has landed in South Ossetia to support the Russian lines, and have nearly reached the original Russian peacekeepers line trapped behind the war zone.
quote:
first, thanks for all the information - i'm learning alot about a region i never cared about (i mean that sincerely). Second, that speech seems slightly sensationalist. Perhaps it would be more believable if the rhetoric was turned down a notch.
Oh, dont take my word for it, I didnt exagerate one sentence of that speech - check out the bolded parts of this article from yesterday:
Unrest
Georgian army moves to retake South Ossetia
Georgian troops launched a major military offensive Friday to regain control over the breakaway province of South Ossetia, prompting a furious response from Russia – which vowed retaliation and sent tanks into the region.
The fighting was the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won de-facto independence in a war that ended in 1992 – raising fears that war could once again erupt and draw in Russia, which has close ties to the South Ossetians and has peacekeepers in the region. Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili accused Russia of bombing Georgian territory, which Russia denied. But Russian troops were moving into South Ossetia and a convoy of tanks has already crossed the border, according to Russian state television and Georgian officials. The convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital, Tskhinvali, by evening, Channel One television said. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned that the Georgian attack will draw retaliation and the Defense Ministry pledged to protect South Ossetians, most of whom have Russian citizenship. Georgia, which borders the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia, was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the breakup of the Soviet Union. The country has angered Russia by seeking NATO membership – a bid Moscow regards as part of a Western effort to weaken its influence in the region. An AP reporter saw tanks and other heavy weapons concentrating on the Russian side of the border with South Ossetia – supporting the Russian TV reports of an incursion.
Some villagers were fleeing into Russia.
"I saw them (the Georgians) shelling my village,“ said Maria, who gave only her first name. She looked shocked and was reluctant to speak. She said she and other villagers spent the night in a field and then fled toward the Russian border as the fighting escalated. Georgia has declared a three-hour ceasefire to allow civilians to leave Tskhinvali. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said troops were observing the ceasefire, which began at 3 p.m. local time (1100 GMT). Utiashvili said Georgian forces earlier shot down two Russian combat planes that were raiding Georgian territory. He refused to identify the type of craft or provide further details. Russia’s Defense Ministry has denied an earlier Georgian report about one Russian plane downed. It had no immediate comment on the latest claim. NATO has called for an immediate end to fighting. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said he is seriously concerned about the fighting and that the alliance is closely following the situation. A spokesman for U.S. President George W. Bush said Russia and Georgia should cease hostilities and hold talks to end the conflict. Separatist officials in South Ossetia said 15 civilians had been killed in fighting overnight. Georgian officials said seven civilians were wounded in bombing raids by Russia. Putin – in Beijing to attend the Olympic opening ceremony – said an unspecified number of the peacekeepers have been wounded. South Ossetia officials said Georgia attacked with aircraft, armor and heavy artillery. Georgian troops fired missiles at Tskhinvali, an official said, and many buildings were on fire. The city’s main hospital was among the buildings hit by Georgian shelling, the Russian news agency Interfax said. The International Committee of the Red Cross said it is seeking to open a humanitarian corridor to guarantee safe access to Tskhinvali. Maia Kardova, ICRC spokeswoman in Tbilisi, said military vehicles are being given priority on the main road leading to the South Ossetia capital and this is making it difficult for rescue vehicles to get through.
Saakashvili said Russian aircrafts bombed several Georgian villages and other civilian facilities.
"A full-scale aggression has been launched against Georgia,“ Saakashvili said in a televised statement. He also announced a full military mobilization with reservists being called into action. Seven civilians were wounded when three Russian Su-24 jet bombers flew into Georgia and bombed the town of Gori and the villages of Kareli and Variani, Deputy Interior Minister Eka Sguladze said at a briefing. She said that four Russian jets later bombed Gori, the hometown of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, but that raid didn’t cause any casualties. Saakashvili urged Russia to immediately stop bombing Georgian territory. "Georgia will not yield its territory or renounce its freedom,“ he said.
A senior Russian diplomat in charge of the South Ossetian conflict, Yuri Popov, dismissed the Georgian claims of Russian bombings, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported. Russia’s Defense Ministry denounced the Georgian attack as a "dirty adventure. "Blood shed in South Ossetia will weigh on their conscience,“ the ministry said in a statement posted on its Web site. "We will protect our peacekeepers and Russian citizens,“ it said without elaboration. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev later chaired a session of his Security Council in the Kremlin, vowing that Moscow will protect Russian citizens. "In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as president of Russia, am obliged to protect lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located,“ Medvedev said, according to Russian news reports. "We won’t allow the death of our compatriots go unpunished.“ Saakashvili long has pledged to restore Tbilisi’s rule over South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia. Both regions have run their own affairs without international recognition since splitting from Georgia in the early 1990s and built up ties with Moscow. Most residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have Russian passports. An open war could prompt Russian to send in more forces under the claim of protecting its citizens. Putin, speaking in televised remarks Friday, said Georgia’s military action causes "grave concern and it will certainly lead to retaliatory actions.“ Saakashvili said government troops have seized the outskirts of Tskhinvali and are fighting for control of the center. Georgian forces also have seized several villages around the capital. Gen. Mamuka Kurashvili, a Georgian military officer in charge of operations in the region, said on Rustavi 2 television that Georgian forces were moving to "establish constitutional order in the region.“ The leader of Russia’s province of North Ossetia rushed to Tskhinvali. "We are jointly organizing defenses here,“ Teimuraz Mamsurov said in the city, according to the Interfax news agency. Mamsurov said hundreds of volunteers from North Ossetia were streaming across the border into South Ossetia, Interfax said. It also quoted the separatist leader of Abkhazia as saying that some 1,000 volunteers from his region were heading to South Ossetia. Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temur Yakobashvili said Georgian officials were doing everything they could to avoid casualties and the destruction of property. But Boris Chochiyev, a minister in the South Ossetian government, said that Georgian troops shelled the center of Tskhinvali with truck-launched missiles. He asked the Russian government to defend South Ossetians. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Boris Malakhov called on Tbilisi to commit itself to peaceful resolution of the conflict. Yakobashvili said Georgia was ready to negotiate, but claimed the South Ossetian officials were dragging their feet in starting talks. At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.
The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the U.S., Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides "to renounce the use of force,“ council diplomats said.
"We think that this is a very serious error of judgment and political blunder,“ Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said of the council members’ disagreement. "I hope that the Georgian side will reconsider its reckless actions in the area of the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict.“ The Georgian attack came just hours after Saakashvili announced a unilateral cease-fire in a television broadcast late Thursday in which he also urged South Ossetian separatist leaders to enter talks on resolving the conflict. Georgian officials later blamed South Ossetian separatists for thwarting the cease-fire by shelling Georgian villages in the area. Russia has soldiers in South Ossetia as peacekeeping forces, but Georgia alleges they back the separatists. Russia also was criticized by the West as provoking tensions by sending warplanes over South Ossetia last month. Most of South Ossetia, which is roughly 1.5 times the size of Luxembourg, has been under the control of an internationally unrecognized separatist government since 1992. Georgian forces hold several swaths of it. Relations between Georgia and Russia worsened notably this year as Georgia pushed to join NATO and Russia dispatched additional peacekeeper forces to Abkhazia. Associated Press writers Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili in Tbilisi, Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow and John Heilprin at the United Nations contributed to this report.
Moongoose
Yet with everything thats been going on, the top story on cnn today is that apparently John edwards slept with a woman that wasnt his wife a few years ago. Seriously, how can that mere important?
guerra-monstru
^The States believe that anything important is what happens in their country or because of there countries actions. Anyways something in Russian for those that can speak it. Mag, this is for you to translate. Basically says that Russian military leaving volgograd towards Georgia?http://volgograd.kp.ru/photo/gallery/5701/
DrUg_Tit0
quote:
Originally posted by Magnetonium
Holly - update: Russian forces report losing two airplanes in the region: SU-25 and TU-25. Georgian forces claim to have captured one pilot. 58th Russian army is reporting to have retaken Tskhinvali.
Hmm, now that georgians have captured a russian pilot, I suppose there's a good excuse to go all the way to Tblisi in order to rescue him...
Capitalizt
Hopefully the Russian and Georgian olympians get into a fistfight at the first race today. Then the conflict might finally make it to the evening news. ;)
