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President of Poland and other high-ranking officials killed in plane crash (pg. 16)
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| Kamka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
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Thank you for your reply. You have interesting insight and I appreciate your posts which are able to consider and take into account the various different aspects of looking at the issue and are also insightful and analytical. I, on the other hand, am more emotional and do not always respond with that distanced and level-headed evaluative rationale :) But I enjoyed reading your posts and your input. I have heard about some of the facts you mentioned (i.e. the IBM case, and also certain business groups funding both sides of the war effort) before as well. There is more to this war than is regularly taught in the textbooks. Good night! |
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| geroin |
| quote: | Originally posted by rabbitjoker
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ - I disagree entirely (and am too busy with other things to respond further). |
i'd like to see your response to this as well. |
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| yankeeBaby |
This thread is interesting, yet somewhat exhausting to a person who has not been online for 24hours.......:disbelief :nervous: <------me.
edit (off topic?): I have been wanting to do some reading up on "Russian" history. Me and my close friend(who majored in Russian History) were conversating in the book store the other day and I was hoping for some (preferably) low-biased reads, if anyone has any suggestions? |
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| geroin |
| quote: | Originally posted by yankeeBaby
edit (off topic?): I have been wanting to do some reading up on "Russian" history. Me and my close friend(who majored in Russian History) were conversating in the book store the other day and I was hoping for some (preferably) low-biased reads, if anyone has any suggestions? |
it really depends on what era or epoch you're planning on studying or reading about. Otherwise it may take you a few decades ;)
Is there a particular time that you're interested in reading about or just in general? |
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| StereoPrincess |
Bloomberg seems to think that the economy and relations will remain good.
It is interesting how Poland seems to be in between things again.
Also, I had no idea that Poland's economy was doing so well that they have to worry about the zloty getting too high and causing crazy inflation.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...d-update1-.html
| quote: | Kaczynski Death to Aid Pro-Euro Tusk’s Grip on Poland
By David McQuaid
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-euro Civic Platform party is likely to cement its grip on power in a presidential election that must now be held by June after President Lech Kaczynski died in a plane crash.
Polls taken before the April 10 accident showed Civic Platform’s candidate, Bronislaw Komorowski, was running ahead of Kaczynski and other contenders in an election originally scheduled for October. The tragedy, in Smolensk, western Russia, killed all 96 passengers on route to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the massacre of thousands of Polish officers by Soviet forces.
Following the crash, in which Left Democratic Alliance party candidate Jerzy Smajdzinski also died, Komorowski is left as the sole surviving contender of Poland’s three major parties. The only significant impediment to a Civic Platform victory may be the possibility of a wave of sympathy for the dead president, political commentators said, and that still probably won’t be enough to prevent Tusk extending his control over the political system.
“This changes the whole political dynamic,” said Marek Matraszek, Warsaw based head of CEC Government Relations, which advises companies dealing with the government. “Does it cement Civic Platform’s dominance? That’s a very strong possibility.”
With control of the government and the presidency, Tusk’s party would have more freedom to pass legislation needed to keep the budget in check and satisfy investors focused on fiscal health.
‘Hostile Figures’
Kaczynski, who over the past three years had tried to block government efforts to overhaul Poland’s debt-ridden healthcare and pension systems, was also the last EU leader besides Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic to sign the Lisbon Treaty, and opposed Tusk’s euro adoption goal.
Kaczynski placed a euro-skeptic ally in charge of the central bank, Slawomir Skrzypek, who was also killed in the crash.
“Investors viewed President Kaczynski and Skrzypek as hostile figures,” said Preston Keat, the London-based research director of Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting company. “What kept coming up in client meetings is that they were the two blocking forces to market reform.”
Zloty Interventions
Under Governor Skrzypek, Poland’s central bank last week intervened to cap zloty gains for the first time in 12 years. The currency is up 6 percent against the euro this year, making it eastern EU’s best performer in the period. The bank appointed Skrzypek’s deputy Piotr Wiesiolek as acting governor and will hold a meeting today to discuss how to proceed.
“My sense is that the view that the zloty is appreciating too far and too fast is widely held in the central bank, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t come back into the market again next week or the week after,” said Blaise Antin, managing director of TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles, which has $115 billion under management, including $4 billion in emerging market assets.
The zloty lost as much as 0.7 percent against the euro today before recovering to trade at 3.873 at 10:04 a.m. in Warsaw. The currency will probably stabilize after investors digest the initial shock of the plane crash, Citigroup Inc. and RBC Capital said.
‘Out of the Way’
The central bank had also signaled it was deciding when to start raising interest rates from a record low 3.5 percent.
“Uncertainty should be out of the way by June and we stick for now with our call of three rate hikes from July, but with risks to the downside given prospects of further intervention,” said Peter Attard Montalto, an emerging markets economist at Nomura International Plc, in a note to clients. He expects the country to join the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism, a prelude to adopting the euro, in 2011.
Poland abandoned its 2012 euro adoption target last July after it became clear it would miss the bloc’s fiscal targets. Tusk now says 2015 is a “realistic” date.
Though polls show Komorowski was likely to win the October elections, an earlier presidential victory may allow the Civic Platform more time to push through policy changes.
Longer Rule
“There is now likely to be a longer period of Civic Platform presidential rule before the parliamentary elections in 2011,” Montalto said. “This should allow the privatization program, the passage of other laws and fiscal reforms to progress more smoothly through the second half before campaigning for the parliamentary elections starts next year.”
Support for Civic Platform party rose to 53 percent from 50 percent, Rzeczpospolita reported on March 11. Support for Kaczynski’s Law & Justice, was unchanged at 27 percent, while the Left Democratic Alliance increased its support to 8 percent from 7 percent, according to a poll of 1,000 adults by researcher GfK Polonia.
Poland, the biggest of the EU’s eastern members and the only EU economy to have avoided a contraction during the credit crisis, will post a budget deficit of 7.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, with debt of 57 percent of GDP, the European Commission estimates. Economic output will expand 3 percent in 2010 after growing 1.7 percent last year, the government estimates.
Poland may also improve its ties with Russia after the disaster. Kaczynski, an advocate of extending North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership to Russia’s borders by including Georgia and Ukraine, didn’t attend an April 7 reconciliation meeting with Tusk and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to mark the 1940 Katyn massacre, flying instead with his own delegation three days later.
Russian Efforts
Since the crash, Russia’s political leaders have taken pains to demonstrate their sympathy and assist Poland. President Dmitry Medvedev appointed Putin the head of the special commission looking into the crash and made an address to Polish citizens expressing his condolences. Today is a national day of mourning in Russia to mark the Polish deaths.
“The momentum that’s been generated over the past few days is just astounding,” said Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, who heads Othago, a Warsaw-based consultancy that helps firms do business in former Soviet Union countries. “It means the possibility of doing serious business with Russia and breaking the mold of 20 years of strained relations.”
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| Xavier Moriarty |
| quote: | Originally posted by StereoPrincess
Maybe there will be a young smart candidate out of the field that will do some good. |
one that will try to sell out to usa? think again!!
| quote: | | totally enjoying this thread! lol debates ftw! |
what debates??? you call this slinging debating??? exactly this kind of....damn, i call it "instant knowledge", when every single bit of information is just a click away, free for all kinds of nimrods to interpret it any way they choose to. anyways, its exactly this kind of upedness that made me turn heavily to neo-luddism and anarcho-primitivism.
wikipedia is the greatest threat to our civilization, breeding generation after generation of people unable to THINK for themselves.
free porn, on the other hand (no pun intended), is kinda awesome!! |
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| evil_cookie |
Russia as the world's savior in WWII? :haha:
All you Russian nationalists need to read a little about American history; and what the Americans did for all of us in WWII.
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| yankeeBaby |
| quote: | Originally posted by geroin
it really depends on what era or epoch you're planning on studying or reading about. Otherwise it may take you a few decades ;) |
haha in general yes. I know I have a LOT to read up on, so I am fully aware I may have to spend some time on this, but, this past century is really was I was interested in. I am not really ignorant to think I can read about this in one book, so many suggestions are welcome.
Anyone can PM me if this is *too* off topic, I just thought I would bring it up since I was just in conversation about it on Thursday (along with this crazy thread......) |
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| Xavier Moriarty |
| quote: | Originally posted by evil_cookie
All you Russian nationalists need to read a little about American history; and what the Americans did for all of us in WWII.
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was that a typo?? for US or for USA??? |
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| StereoPrincess |
Another Bloomberg article from today.
| quote: |
Zloty Erases Loss Caused by Crash; Stocks Advance on Greece
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- The zloty recovered from losses after the weekend plane crash that killed Poland’s president and central bank chief, as Citigroup Inc. and RBC Capital said the tragedy won’t damage one of Europe’s strongest economies.
The zloty erased an earlier loss of as much as 0.7 percent to trade 0.2 percent higher at 3.8622 per euro as of 4:40 p.m. in Warsaw, bringing this year’s advance to 6.2 percent. The WIG20 Index of shares climbed 1 percent, closing at a 19-month high. The yield at today’s Treasury bill auction dropped as investor demand rose to the highest since January.
Analysts say the rally will continue as growth accelerates in the only European Union economy to avoid a recession during the credit crisis and record state-asset sales help fund the budget deficit. President Lech Kaczynski, central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek and leaders of the opposition and military were among 96 people who died en route to commemorate the Soviet massacre of Polish officers near Russia’s Katyn forest.
“This is a very sad event but I don’t think this is going to turn around the good economic policy story that Poland is,” said Luis Costa, an emerging-market strategist at Citigroup in London.
The euro gained against the dollar and stocks rose in central and eastern Europe after governments offered Greece a bailout package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.
Rescue Package
“The market isn’t panicking at all,” said Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging-market research at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “The rescue package for Greece is very positive. Although Poland wasn’t the most fragile in terms of its fiscal balance, people have been concerned that there would be some contagion.”
The cost to protect against a default on Polish debt fell 4.5 basis points to 89.5, the lowest since March 18, according to CMA DataVision prices. Prices for credit-default swaps fall as perceptions of creditworthiness improve.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the April 10 crash near the city of Smolensk the most tragic event for Poland since wartime. Russian and Polish authorities are investigating whether bad weather, human error, a technical malfunction or other reasons caused the crash, according to Russian officials.
“I don’t think it alters the general picture of Poland,” Nigel Rendell, senior emerging-market strategist at RBC in London, said in a telephone interview. “The economy is one of the strongest within Europe.”
Rising Demand
The yield on 52-week Treasury bills fell to 3.839 percent at today’s auction, the lowest level since Feb. 1, as demand reached 4.43 billion zloty ($1.56 billion), the most since January. The Finance Ministry will offer between 2 and 3.5 billion zloty of 10-year bonds on April 14, in line with the previous plan, it said in a statement.
Activity on the domestic bond market has “practically ground to a halt” and the situation will probably persist until the April 14 offering, Krzysztof Izdebski, a fixed-income trader at PKO Bank Polski SA, the country’s largest bank by assets, said by phone from Warsaw.
Polish gross domestic product will probably rise 3 percent this year, up from 1.7 percent growth in 2009, according to government estimates.
“The zloty remains, in our opinion, the most cyclically undervalued currency” in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa, JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Nora Szentivanyi wrote in a report today. It is “the one most likely to strengthen over the medium term, helped by a sustained growth rebound that we do not expect to be affected,” she wrote.
Ceremonial Role
Under the constitution, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, Bronislaw Komorowski, will assume the duties of the president, which are largely ceremonial. He’s required to set a date for a presidential election within two weeks and the vote must be held within 60 days. That brings the ballot forward from an election previously scheduled for the second half of 2010.
Along with assuming the role of president, Komorowski is also the candidate in presidential elections for Tusk’s Civic Platform party. Polls show Komorowski was poised to defeat Kaczynski in the ballot.
The political system concentrates power in the hands of the prime minister as head of government. The president may veto legislation and make some appointments, including generals, judges, ambassadors and the head of the central bank.
“The presidential role in Poland is not big while monetary policy decisions are made by a 10-member council, not by the governor himself,” Marek Juras, a central European strategist at UniCredit SpA in Warsaw, said in an phone interview yesterday.
‘Matter Can’t Wait’
Piotr Wiesiolek, a deputy central bank chief, has temporarily assumed the role of governor. Wiesiolek told PAP newswire on March 11 that the central bank is operationally ready to intervene on the market if necessary, a month before policy makers bought foreign exchange on April 9 to weaken the zloty in the first such intervention since 1998.
“The institutional setting is strong and there are no major political risks,” Shahin Vallee, a London-based emerging- markets currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in an e- mailed note. “We would buy the zloty, bonds on any weakness related to this event.”
Appreciation Ended
The zloty is up 27 percent from its five-year low on Feb. 17, 2009, the second-biggest increase among emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg for the period after South Africa’s rand.
“The appreciation trend has ended for now,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a phone interview yesterday. “The risk for those who bet on further zloty appreciation is larger now, though mainly due to the intervention.”
Commerzbank last month raised its forecast for the zloty to strengthen to 3.75 per euro by year end, from 3.95 seen previously. RBC predicts an exchange rate of between 3.75 and 3.8 by yearend, Rendell said.
Prime Minister Tusk’s chief adviser, Michal Boni, said in televised comments there is no need for emergency measures to stabilize the economy, adding that he’s in constant contact with Wiesiolek and the authorities stand ready to act if needed.
PZU for Sale
The government’s target to raise $10 billion from state asset sales this year includes an offering of shares in PZU SA, Poland’s largest insurer, scheduled to start this week. The government and Eureko BV planned to begin taking orders for at least 5.5 billion zloty of PZU shares in Europe’s biggest initial public offering this year.
Poland is keeping to its plan for the share sale, Treasury Ministry’s spokesman Maciej Wewior said today. Separately, state-owned Tauron Polska Energia SA filed an issue prospectus with the financial regulator as the government seeks to sell a stake in its second-largest power group in an initial public offering this quarter.
“While tragic, we do not think this ought to cause any concern for Polish assets,” Erik Nielsen, Goldman’s London- based chief European economist wrote in a report yesterday. Goldman’s forecast on Bloomberg has the zloty at 3.75 per euro by the end of the third quarter, from 3.87 on April 9. |
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| Magnetonium |
| quote: | Originally posted by StereoPrincess
lol. I love how threads sometime take such a big turn.
I am going to be watching polish politics way more closely now. I really am interested in what will happen in the elections. Maybe there will be a young smart candidate out of the field that will do some good. |
Same! Loss of so many Polish elite has created a significant power vacuum, especially damaging for the Conservatives. No worries though, I think Poland is a much better run country than many of the other former communist bloc countries. Did you know that Poland was the only Warsaw-bloc country to see a significant economic increase last year? Mind-boggling, considering that a huge number of Poles are working abroad as migrant workers.
EDIT: You posted a link, beat me to it! Haha ...
| quote: | Originally posted by Kamka
Thank you for your reply. You have interesting insight and I appreciate your posts which are able to consider and take into account the various different aspects of looking at the issue and are also insightful and analytical. I, on the other hand, am more emotional and do not always respond with that distanced and level-headed evaluative rationale :) But I enjoyed reading your posts and your input. I have heard about some of the facts you mentioned (i.e. the IBM case, and also certain business groups funding both sides of the war effort) before as well. There is more to this war than is regularly taught in the textbooks. Good night! |
Thanks, I hope I wasn't overly annoying or aggressive with my constant commentary.
| quote: | Originally posted by yankeeBaby
edit (off topic?): I have been wanting to do some reading up on "Russian" history. Me and my close friend(who majored in Russian History) were conversating in the book store the other day and I was hoping for some (preferably) low-biased reads, if anyone has any suggestions? |
Thats a good point, though I honestly cant think of a book, I hope someone can come up with a suggestion. It's hard to find a non-biased view, best way is to read various points and draw your own conclusions.
Books aren't quite the main one of them for me, they are too dull (often its the same information over and over). I personally find a combination of media, political analysis, discussions like these forums, books, opinions, and oddly enough, speakers who take all this information and analyze it. That way it stimulates your own thinking and you start making your own conclusions and new ideas about the subject. I used to be a regular subcriber and listener of several political radio shows (nowadays non-existent, bankrupt or changed programming), and the way they presented the information was so fascinating and mind-boggling, I could never ever get that kind of experience from reading some media or a book. No, I am not talking about John Stewart or Colbert.
Threads like these are excellent at getting your mind into the know-how of world politics! Especially with lots of good input from everyone. Fill in the rest with books, and your hunger for knowledge and media. There isn't only one good source or one good book - remember that! :)
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| yankeeBaby |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Thats a good point, though I honestly cant think of a book, I hope someone can come up with a suggestion. It's hard to find a non-biased view, best way is to read various points and draw your own conclusions.
Books aren't quite the main one of them for me, they are too dull (often its the same information over and over). I personally find a combination of media, political analysis, discussions like these forums, books, opinions, and oddly enough, speakers who take all this information and analyze it. That way it stimulates your own thinking and you start making your own conclusions and new ideas about the subject. I used to be a regular subcriber and listener of several political radio shows (nowadays non-existent, bankrupt or changed programming), and the way they presented the information was so fascinating and mind-boggling, I could never ever get that kind of experience from reading some media or a book. No, I am not talking about John Stewart or Colbert.
Threads like these are excellent at getting your mind into the know-how of world politics! Especially with lots of good input from everyone. Fill in the rest with books, and your hunger for knowledge and media. There isn't only one good source or one good book - remember that! :)
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thanks! I try, I just feel like my head has been so filled with garbage and too many opinions as opposed to facts. Although, this puts me in quite a pickle, as most books dont necessarily have the correct facts either (as shown also by the WIDE degree of information people have in this very thread.....I am constantly wondering WHO is right, but I guess no one will really ever know, right? I just hate speculation.) I am not a huge fan of debate, rather, I would rather just know the correct information and process it myself, which is why I find historical debates so incredibly frustrating. Too many opinions, facts, rumors, myths, bias, pride, and ego's get in the way.
I, myself have read for well over a half a decade on *African* history (I could go on about it forever), but can honestly say that my discussions with the aforementioned friend, about Russia, are lacking. I dont have the years of knowledge she has on the subject, so I dont put up any decent arguments LOL. She did say that she has the Russian newspaper delivered, but I am pretty sure that it is written in Russian and wont be of any use to me ;) |
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