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2014 FIFA World Cup | Official Thread (pg. 7)
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| Trance-M |
Seedorf is added to our team again...
well not really, but maybe he should be...
Edit: video gone....
Well, for some reason I'm looking forward to see Algeria again :)
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by DOOMBOT
The players who have spoken up seem to support the protests, as long as they are not violent. |
Funny thing about the protests: They were mostly a middle-class phenomenon.
Being the Lira that I am, as soon as I saw the invitations on Facebook to these protests (my first reaction was to support them), I decided to open the books and crunch numbers. And that's when I decided not to go.
In hindsight*, one of the main complaints of the protesters seems to have been that we pay too much tax (true) and that we don't get anything back (mostly false) because we don't get education and health services like developed countries (mostly true) where they pay as much tax as we do (definitely false). "So", you might be asking yourself, "how do they benefit from paying so much tax?"
I'm glad you rhetorically asked! We've been busy pulling people out of poverty:
On the left you can see HDI levels in 1991. Most of the country was extremely poor, the South-East was relatively poor, and my hometown (the yellow spot in the middle) was an oasis of mediocrity. 20 years later, and much of this time was spent under the stewardship of the Labour Party, there are still some extremely underdeveloped regions in the North, but they're the exception rather than the rule. Education indices have skyrocketed from stone-age standards to... rather mediocre levels, but that was quite an improvement.
There's a reason those protests kicked off in São Paulo, rather than in the North: Because, if you live in such a prosperous region, and you still need pay for quality health/education, then what on Earth are you paying these taxes for?! This, along with the plateau I mentioned in my reply to Wotyzoid, is the reason behind the protests. Someone who claims to be against the current government because it's doing too little to tackle poverty and hunger is either incredibly misguided or just outstandingly ignorant.
* Even this much wasn't clear during the protests. Here's a little something I wrote in the comments section of the Guardian and that turned out to be true. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
If we managed to solve all infrastructural problems in an ideal world, the World Cup would showcase the country and tourists would flock (hoping we wouldn't need something akin to Australia's "Where the bloody hell are you?" campaign to invite people over to visit us), revenue generated by tourism would inject a much needed money into our economy and we'd all benefit from the infrastructure, but it seems that's not quite what will happen. Some of the criticism is, therefore, completely valid. However, claiming it will be a disaster and "a drain on the government finances" is an extreme exaggeration. Will it be unremarkable? Probably. A drain on the government finances?! Now that's bloody preposterous! Although this will be the most expensive (and lucrative) World Cup ever (and this includes the badly needed work on infrastructure and security, results notwithstanding), that's 0,6% of our GDP, just so you can keep it in perspective. Those who reckon this money should be spent on school and hospitals should've thought of that before we took our chances 7 years ago. |
It's been fairly conclusively demonstrated by economists that hosting major sporting events such as World Cups and Olympic Games has almost no economic benefit to the host nations (or cities) whatsoever and is an extremely inefficient method of improving public infrastructure. I'd recommend reading a book called Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski which has a very illuminating chapter on this subject regarding the World Cup, or more generally there's a book called Field Of Schemes: How the Great Stadium Swindle Turns Public Money into Private Profit which details the same phenomenon with regards to politicians lobbying for stadium construction in American sport.
So... yeah. The numbers were crunched a long time ago and they came up pretty badly. You can hardly blame the Brazilian public for being angry at the naked corruption in front of their eyes. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
It's been fairly conclusively demonstrated by economists that hosting major sporting events such as World Cups and Olympic Games has almost no economic benefit to the host nations (or cities) whatsoever and is an extremely inefficient method of improving public infrastructure. I'd recommend reading a book called Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski which has a very illuminating chapter on this subject regarding the World Cup, or more generally there's a book called Field Of Schemes: How the Great Stadium Swindle Turns Public Money into Private Profit which details the same phenomenon with regards to politicians lobbying for stadium construction in American sport. |
That's why I said "in an ideal world" and said some of the criticism was valid. I'm well aware of the problems surrounding the organisation of one mega-event (let alone two in our case!).
Either way, we're way past that stage now, as we've already agreed we'd host these events (and the Confederations Cup was well under way when the riots gained momentum last year). This debate was relevant 8 years ago (when 8 out of 10 Brazilians supported the bid). That's when we could've pulled out. It's a tad bit too late for that now.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
You can hardly blame the Brazilian public for being angry at the naked corruption in front of their eyes. |
I'd agree with you if the protesters demanded an investigation to check whether there was any wrongdoing so we could have some of the money back (that's hardly what galvanised the riots). They complained about everything, and for the record, it all started because of a hike in bus fares. Just so you can have an idea, it was believed most protesters wanted more money spent on health and education (allegations of corruption were barely mentioned) and the president promptly imported hundred of doctors from Cuba.
Then protesters complained the doctors aren't Brazilian :p They're just slightly better than the staff of the Daily Mail, believe me. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Either way, we're way past that stage now, as we've already agreed we'd host these events (and the Confederations Cup was well under way when the riots gained momentum last year). This debate was relevant 8 years ago (when 8 out of 10 Brazilians supported the bid). That's when we could've pulled out. It's a tad bit too late for that now. |
I doubt 8 out of 10 Brazilians supported going enormously over budget for the preparations. And I think most people would suggest it's the government's responsibility to do proper research into the pros and cons of such a large undertaking and inform the public accurately, otherwise people are going to get angry when the reality differs from the promises.
| quote: | | I'd agree with you if the protesters demanded an investigation to check whether there was any wrongdoing so we could have some of the money back (that's hardly what galvanised the riots). |
Riots aren't really about expressing cogent political points. They're about anger, usually with the establishment. The corruption is what lead to the massive over-spending and delays, and whether the rioters singled that out or not, it's the source of the problem. And really? "We could have some of the money back"? How naive do you have to be to think the money will come back if you just ask politely for an investigation?
Your objection to the protests seems to be entirely based on the fact they don't offer up any clear answers, but I think that's a very academic and unrealistic interpretation of what rioting and protests can or should achieve. I think it's a good thing the Brazilian public aren't taking this lying down. It sends out a message to the government that rampant corruption will not be tolerated, which can only be a good thing for the country. Hopefully it will also set an example to other governments and other countries who host future sporting tournaments. |
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| 2techs |
| I'm not a soccer guy at all but I'm proud to be korean when the world cup comes around. This should be good. |
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| DOOMBOT |
| quote: | Originally posted by 2techs
I'm not a soccer guy at all but I'm proud to be korean when the world cup comes around. This should be good. |
Yeah, there really are a ton of good squads in this competition. It's very hard to determine who has the best shot because we also have to remember that a lot of players just finished playing in their respective club leagues and could possibly be coming off of injuries or are still injured to some degree. This is why you can never completely write anyone off, considering that an overlooked team could have much fresher legs compared to a team who is expected to do well but have many players who are hurting. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I doubt 8 out of 10 Brazilians supported going enormously over budget for the preparations. |
Yet these 8 Brazilians did bugger all while the stadiums were being built and the price tag kept getting more zeroes.
Here in Brasílie the signs of wrongdoing were already clear from the start: We were supposed to get a new tram system, which will only be ready for the Olympics (in Rio) because government watchdogs pointed out the costs were too high, and interrupted the works until state comptrollers sorted it out. This, along with other irregularities, is the reason I didn't vote for the same party (which was eventually voted out of office)... by then, some of the problems were fixed, saving some 833 million dollars that would be otherwise squandered. Hardly the ideal outcome, but a partial solution. One that is definitely better than vandalism, I must add.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
And I think most people would suggest it's the government's responsibility to do proper research into the pros and cons of such a large undertaking and inform the public accurately, otherwise people are going to get angry when the reality differs from the promises. |
Indeed, and then things went wrong. What did the general public do back in 2010? Kept voting for the same party so the same politicians could keep making the same mistakes they were doing prior to the election.
The reason is simple: The protests weren't against the World Cup. At the beginning, different groups targeted the Confederations Cup so they'd get more visibility (after the protests against soaring bus fare in São Paulo forced the government to keep the old price). If anything, the protesters just want the same amount of money spent on health and education (which, ironically enough, dwarf the expenses with the World Cup).
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Riots aren't really about expressing cogent political points. They're about anger, usually with the establishment. The corruption is what lead to the massive over-spending and delays, and whether the rioters singled that out or not, it's the source of the problem. And really? "We could have some of the money back"? How naive do you have to be to think the money will come back if you just ask politely for an investigation? |
Actually, that's precisely what the Parliamentary Inquiry Commissions have been doing since I first read about politics as a wee lad. This is precisely what's going on [Link in Portuguese] after a scandal that broke out in 2005 as the former Chief of Staff was faced with corruption charges.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Your objection to the protests seems to be entirely based on the fact they don't offer up any clear answers, but I think that's a very academic and unrealistic interpretation of what rioting and protests can or should achieve. I think it's a good thing the Brazilian public aren't taking this lying down. It sends out a message to the government that rampant corruption will not be tolerated, which can only be a good thing for the country. Hopefully it will also set an example to other governments and other countries who host future sporting tournaments. |
I get your excitement over this. Wouldn't it be better if governments stopped wasting so much money with gigantic sporting events that give little (if any) return to the general public? Perhaps. But I will say to you exactly what I said to Guardian readers a year ago (and time has yet to prove me wrong): These protests won't have that effect, and it's unlikely they'll have any lasting effect in the long run. Imagine "Occupy London" and the Tottenham riots happened both at the same time (mainly because the former led to the latter). Would Boris Johnson realise how much of a folly London 2012 was? Would this send a negative message to Rio 2016? I wouldn't hold my breath.
Change will have to come from within, which seems to have been Sochi's legacy. Putin overdid it, and it's now hard to keep it up. Qatar 2022 may have a similar effect in football, for a different reason. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Indeed, and then things went wrong. What did the general public do back in 2010? Kept voting for the same party so the same politicians could keep making the same mistakes they were doing prior to the election. |
It's something of an assumption to say that the same people who rioted were those who voted to keep the government in, isn't it? And I can't say I share your view on the nature of democracy. Perhaps the party in question were the best of a bad bunch in the eyes of the public. Perhaps nobody really believed that the World Cup would suddenly be delivered on time, on budget and without overspend or corruption by simply changing the government.
| quote: | | But I will say to you exactly what I said to Guardian readers a year ago (and time has yet to prove me wrong): These protests won't have that effect, and it's unlikely they'll have any lasting effect in the long run. |
I don't really see the reasoning here. You cannot definitively rule out the international news story of the Brazilian public rioting over World Cup overspending having an influence on (for example) the population of Krakow voting in a referendum against hosting the Winter Olympics. There might not be a directly observable cause-effect outcome to these protests but that doesn't mean they are worthless. I feel we're at a real tipping point where people all over the world are waking up to the corruption of organisations like FIFA. The ongoing Qatar debate coupled with these Brazilian protests are bringing the integrity of the World Cup into question more than ever before. A riot might not have the lucid neatness of a properly thought-out political protest, but it may actually have more worldwide impact where a peaceful, non-eventful protest would doubtless be swept under the carpet by the government and ignored by international media. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
It's something of an assumption to say that the same people who rioted were those who voted to keep the government in, isn't it? |
You're right to say I made this assumption, and that it hardly applies to São Paulo, the stronghold of the opposition party in the 2010 elections and where the protests begin. It's also true that, among university graduates, Dilma Rousseff (Labour) actually lost to José Serra (Social Democrats). However, it was a close call. Even in São Paulo, the stronghold I mentioned, Dilma garnered 45.95% of the votes.
However, Labour clearly got the youth vote (if you want to read some Portuguese here are some pre-election numbers), taking the lead in the demographics of protesters (16-25 and 25-34).
Of course, this still doesn't mean those who took to the street actually voted for Labour. One million people were involved in the protests (or so we hear), whereas 32 million Brazilians are under 24 alone. So there will always be room for scepticism, and as it spread to other areas, but it clearly shows that, at the time, the majority didn't quite agree with protesters that it was time to change.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
And I can't say I share your view on the nature of democracy. Perhaps the party in question were the best of a bad bunch in the eyes of the public. Perhaps nobody really believed that the World Cup would suddenly be delivered on time, on budget and without overspend or corruption by simply changing the government. |
Regarding the first bit: Yeah, but if the current bunch was doing bad enough, choosing another party over them would be like picking the lesser of two evils, wouldn't you say so?
And, about your latter claim, I'm trying to read newspapers articles from 2010 to point out whether there was any debate about the World Cup during the elections but, as I recall it, even abortion got more attention. The thing is, hardly anyone really cared... and it's still hardly the greatest motivation behind the protests last year as well.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I don't really see the reasoning here. You cannot definitively rule out the international news story of the Brazilian public rioting over World Cup overspending having an influence on (for example) the population of Krakow voting in a referendum against hosting the Winter Olympics. There might not be a directly observable cause-effect outcome to these protests but that doesn't mean they are worthless. I feel we're at a real tipping point where people all over the world are waking up to the corruption of organisations like FIFA. The ongoing Qatar debate coupled with these Brazilian protests are bringing the integrity of the World Cup into question more than ever before. A riot might not have the lucid neatness of a properly thought-out political protest, but it may actually have more worldwide impact where a peaceful, non-eventful protest would doubtless be swept under the carpet by the government and ignored by international media. |
I mentioned Sochi, rather than the World Cup, because it's the Winter Olympics. It's still to early to say whether those protests will have any impact on the Summer Olympics (and virtually impossible to tell whether these protests or Qatar will do their best to tarnish FIFA's reputation). If they achieve that... it will be the mother of unintended consequences. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by jillybabe
waiting on my tickets to the mexico match!!! |
Which one? Against Cameroon, Croatia, or Brazil? Or all of them? :p
If you're going to see all of these matches, you're going to make one hell of an awesome trip to the Brazilian North-east :) |
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| Jon_Snow |
| I can't help but imagine a soccer match being played inside Lira's head. Protesters vs His love of the game who is rising on the ground clutching his ankle. |
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