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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 101)
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| Krypton |
No offense, but how many newbs can call a bull or bear market? Over the long term, the market is in a perpetual bull market, so wouldn't it be wise for a newb to be long with a buy n hold strategy?
As for me, thanks for the list..;) |
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| mndeg |
Well with at least 2 more years of pain you don't have to watch tick by tick to know what's going on. Market cycles take a while to resolve. .com bubble took about 2 years to bottom out but credit bubble is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy worse than the .com bubble.
Housing historically also takes a long time to turn around. It doesn't exactly V bottom. It goes flat and then comes back. We have 11 months of housing inventory right now, just sitting around and it'll be increasing for the foreseeable future. And America has never seen a housing bubble of this magnitude fueled by bad monetary policy and greed on all levels so it'll probably be worse than the ones in the past.
For buy and holders you gotta protect capital at all costs. a 5% decline followed by a 5% gain will still leave you behind. |
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| mndeg |
| I believe I bought GDX somewhere near the bottom but sold it at a loss! D: |
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| mndeg |
Major reality disconnect today lead by financials and airlines.
Definitely not profitable industries. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
Major reality disconnect today lead by financials and airlines.
Definitely not profitable industries. |
This has been a week of total bull. Volume has been embarassingly light. From what I have read it has been nothing but program and algorithm trading which just continues to ride the momentum. i.e. an object in motion will stay in motion until rational investors return from vacation (if I am correct...). It's definitely inflicted plenty of pain.
And great news...Dell the bed tonight. BUY BUY BUY!!! What a joke. |
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| Krypton |
Here is my analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The "Nathan Multiple" is a formula I developed and named after myself to measure the value of expected earnings growth. If a stock is less than 1, it's expected earnings are cheap, and thus a good buy. The first picture are the fundamentals of the Dow Jones (Dow Jones starts at AA stock ticker). The second picture is the value of the Dow Jones and the stocks within it. This took me about 3 days to do.
According to this analysis, AIG is the most undervalued stock, but XOM, CVX, and MSFT are the strongest companies fundamentally. JNJ is also not far behind.
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| mndeg |
Lehman pump and dump again.
It seems odd that terrible stocks rise before they plunge. Look at Crox leading up to 7/24/08. Look at BSC before it's plunge.
I'm going to take a guess and say they won't be able to secure capital by mid September and will go under as they are obviously insolvent.
Even if they got rid of Neuberger it wouldn't keep them afloat for another quarter.
Yesterday Korea's financials plunged due to the threat of KDB taking on the liabilities of LEH.
Gonna sell my sndk puts today, better opportunities elsewhere. Still easy money to the downside though. |
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| Moongoose |
Oh man, today was a bad day for me on all fronts. Even the market decided to hit me when im down.
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| mndeg |
If anyone goes short FED here you can't go wrong.
Look at UNG totally collapsed.
LEH down afterhours bad news. |
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