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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 14)
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| philliez |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
This is the ultimate test of whether my fundamentals spreadsheet that took me 6 months to develop really works. |
I really hope it does. That will be one very valuable xls file! :D
TSO looks nice. Definitely kicking its industry's ass.
But hey... why is it that the chart I see under [Strat. Sector] is different from the one on my public page?? |
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| Shakka |
Nobody likes unsolicited advice, particularly in a crap-shoot like stock market investing. But in any event, 2 things: 1)Don't rely on a chart to convince you the fundamentals are sound, rather use the chart to try to better time the execution of a trade where you have already studied the fundamentals. 2)As much as I despise the guy, Cramer (and many others) make a good point about trying to focus on owning "best-of-breed" type companies. That said, refining has been in a huge bull market for years given the huge run-up in energy costs and theories like "peak-oil", natural disasters and the like aiding and abetting the situation. Energy stocks can be incredibly volatile (particularly when the underlying commodity is volatile (like crude and natural gas), so invest at your own peril.
That said, an interesting article from the other day...
| quote: | Refiners' Boom Time May Be Near End
Higher Crude-Oil Prices,
Greater Fuel Supplies
Might Squeeze Profits
By ANA CAMPOY
August 10, 2007; Page A12
One of the most profitable periods ever for the refining industry may be coming to an end.
An increasing number of troubled refineries are coming back to full capacity at a time when greater supplies of gasoline and other fuels are coming from overseas. As a result, U.S. consumers have seen fuel prices ease.
| quote: | • Reversing the Flow: After posting record profits in the first half of the year, refiners are seeing their margins squeezed by lower fuel prices and higher oil prices.
• Investment Opportunity: Refiners are using the cash they made when times were good to better manage volatility in the oil and fuel markets.
• Deceptive Calm? Analysts warn that any glitch in the refining system could drive prices higher again. |
At the same time, crude-oil prices are at higher levels since the beginning of the year, though they have fallen from a new record reached just last week. The two market trends have squeezed the profit that refiners get from turning oil into gasoline, diesel or heating oil.
Lower gasoline prices mean good news for American consumers, who face uncertainty from a weakening housing market. But the shifts underscore the roller-coaster nature of the refining industry, which for years suffered from low margins and a lack of investment in aging facilities.
Refining margins -- or the difference between the price of the crude oil that refiners buy and the price of the products that they make from it -- remain higher than their historical average, giving refiners more cash to manage the ups and downs. Still, narrowing margins could put to the test their recent efforts to make their systems more flexible to better adapt to the whims of the market.
In the second quarter, lower imports and an unusually high number of maintenance projects decreased gasoline inventories, generating plump earnings for refiners. Valero Energy Corp., the country's largest refiner by crude capacity, posted second-quarter earnings of $2.25 billion, beating analysts' expectations. Profit at Tesoro Corp. jumped 36%, while Sunoco Inc.'s earnings rose 19%.
Major integrated oil companies also benefited from the refining bonanza. Chevron Corp's overall earnings were boosted by a 41% increase in the profit of its U.S. refining operations. ConocoPhillips saw its refining earnings in the U.S. go up by 31%.
Earlier this week, Oppenheimer & Co. downgraded some refiners to neutral from buy. Amid a broadly lower market, Valero was at $67.55 a share in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange, up 26 cents but down from a 52-week high of $78.58 reached last month. Also on the Big Board, Sunoco finished at $63.58, down $1.28 and down from a 52-week high of $86.40 reached in June.
The benchmark refining margin, which measures the difference between West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude and products refined in the Gulf Coast, went from $23.58 a barrel in the second quarter to $7.84 currently, according to Oppenheimer. Oil finished yesterday at $71.59 a barrel in New York Mercantile Exchange trade, up 17% so far this year.
The average retail price of a gallon of regular gasoline is $2.81, according to AAA, down from $3.23 on May 24.
Imports of gasoline and blending components, which averaged less than one million barrels a day from February to April, averaged 1.3 million in June, as refiners around the world shipped product to the U.S. to take advantage of higher prices.
With the cash generated in the first half of the year, Tesoro has been paying down its debt at a faster rate than it had predicted. "Because of the high margins, we're in a better position," said Otto Schwethelm, chief financial officer of Tesoro.
Several companies, including Sunoco and Tesoro, have also used the extra cash to modify their machinery to process heavier crudes, which trade at a discount to lighter ones. A barrel of WTI currently costs about $10 more than a barrel of the heavier Maya.
Through a project at its Philadelphia refinery, Sunoco is able to transform residual fuel oil, the heavy material that remains after the refining process, into more valuable products, like gasoline and diesel, says Gerald Davis, a company spokesman.
Refiners are also spending money to improve their ability to receive, store and transport crude. Tesoro, for example, just finished a project at its Martinez, Calif., refinery that added more tanks, bigger pipelines and stronger pumps. This will allow the company to receive all the crude the refinery needs by boat.
Most refiners are also counting on margins going back up soon. The lower fuel prices will attract fewer imports and reduce inventories, which will in turn result in higher prices, they say. Current inventory levels, although plumper than at the beginning of the year, remain at historical lows. This means that any disruption, from a malfunction at a refinery to a hurricane, would send prices higher and increase margins, says Ann Kohler, managing director of energy research at Caris & Co.
Write to Ana Campoy at [email protected]1 |
/end of unsolicited, likely incorrect advice. ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by philliez
I really hope it does. That will be one very valuable xls file! :D
TSO looks nice. Definitely kicking its industry's ass.
But hey... why is it that the chart I see under [Strat. Sector] is different from the one on my public page?? |
I wouldn't know.
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Most of the market expects a Fed rate cut next month. Best be ready for it when it comes. |
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| philliez |
nevermind... it just takes longer to update the public page.
I'm probably going to try to put together another fund that focuses more on natural resources. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by philliez
nevermind... it just takes longer to update the public page.
I'm probably going to try to put together another fund that focuses more on natural resources. |
I made 4...
CVAF - Is my attempt to beat the market with a few specially selected stocks.
CVDF - This portfolio is my diversified portfolio with bonds, ETFs, and stocks at about a 1/3 allocation for each type.
CVFF - My Fundamentals Fund! Any company I view as having a good balance sheet, goes into this fund.
CVHYF - This fund has 14 of the highest dividend yielding Dow Jones stocks. Consider this a Dogs of the Dow strategy. |
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| Swamper |
| I wonder if there is enough demand on TA for an investors / finance / money forum? |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Swamper
I wonder if there is enough demand on TA for an investors / finance / money forum? |
Probably, but then again, it's probably just as suitable to leave it in here (and maybe broaden the description of the forum to include business, since they are all tied together). How about Politics/Business Discussion/Debate? |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
Probably, but then again, it's probably just as suitable to leave it in here (and maybe broaden the description of the forum to include business, since they are all tied together). How about Politics/Business Discussion/Debate? |
+1 |
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| Capitalizt |
pump..pump...pump...dilute...dilute...dilute..
http://www.breitbart.com/article.ph...&show_article=1
If it weren't for the fed printing dollars like crazy, this market would be in the toilet right now. There is every reason to be bearish, but since the feds are intervening to keep the markets up, it's hard to bet against it. I'm not going long, but I AM shorting this piece of crap called the US dollar ;) |
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| George Smiley |
| Can I just ask a question to people in this thread - is buying stocks and shares something that everyone (most or lots) does in America, almost like a hobby? I have no idea whatsoever about any of the terminology you're using and none of my friends would either, but it seems like everyone here's a mini wall street trader! Is this part of American culture and pretty wide-spread? It's very very rare in the UK (in my experience anyway) for people to be interested in this or pay that much attention to markets (like they might be interested in the news for example) My dad has some shares but these are investments rather than him keeping an eye on the market and selling/buying when the market moves |
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| Capitalizt |
No, must people don't "trade", but around 65% of Americans do own stocks in retirement plans.
I'd say less than 10% of the public are "active traders". |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
Can I just ask a question to people in this thread - is buying stocks and shares something that everyone (most or lots) does in America, almost like a hobby? I have no idea whatsoever about any of the terminology you're using and none of my friends would either, but it seems like everyone here's a mini wall street trader! Is this part of American culture and pretty wide-spread? It's very very rare in the UK (in my experience anyway) for people to be interested in this or pay that much attention to markets (like they might be interested in the news for example) My dad has some shares but these are investments rather than him keeping an eye on the market and selling/buying when the market moves |
More of the entreprenuers are into the active research in the stock market. Stocks are the highest returning asset anyone can own. Higher than even real estate. Knowledge isn't wide-spread, which is why the rich get richer, and the middle just toils at their day jobs. They have no clue where the money is really at. It's in owning equity in business and homes. Until someone learns this and the concept of compounding and cash flow, they become millionaires. |
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