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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 68)
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
what about bill clintons socialism? i don't think todays action is because of the pricing in of obamas victory in the general elections, that would be very very random. |
Despite what the right wingers will say, Bill Clinton was one of the most conservative presidents in US history. He grew government spending by a mere 4% annually compared to Dubya's 8-10% growth. He was also very serious about paying down the debt, unlike any of the candidates running in 08. |
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| mndeg |
| quote: | | some of the best stock/option plays are the most obvious ones. such as shorting homebuilders or luxury goods in a stagflation type recession or just poor companies in general like circuit city |
CC fell 50% since i said that in another forum
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even utilities and materials are down in this market, haha.
consumption in the world is slowing down. the american perpetual spending machine is slowing down. anyone know of a website with convenient stock information such as when earnings will report? |
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| Krypton |
| Taxes may go up, but not for those who make under something like $200,000 a year. The focus is on the wealthiest in our economy. Also, if Warren Buffet, the richest man in the world, says he should be paying more taxes, I will take him at his word. He also supports Obama. So all this right-wing rhetoric about taxes being raised and the economy is going to suffer, etc. etc., is nothing but crap. Under Bill Clinton, the 1990's, proved to be a very prosperous decade. The right only seems to worry about his personal life. |
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| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm almost certain that stocks are pricing in an Obama presidency now.. Wall Street knows Obama is going to win, and they need to price in the coming income tax hike, as well as the hike in capital gains taxes from 15% to 28%. This is going to be a HUGE blow to the market and the smart money knows it. I think we may see a small bounce from here for purely technical reasons...but my "gut" feeling says in order to be fairly valued for 8 years of liberalism/socialism, we still need a 20-25% haircut across the board. It doesn't matter how strong the fundamentals are...All companies are going to be effected by bad government policies, and their prices must reflect that. |
Nope, the economy is just in plain crap shape. Oil isn't going down and everyone knows it. People just can't quite understand what it means to have to actually think before turning the key in the ignition.
It's going to take a year or two of sustained income draining oil prices before people actually figure out how to use thier cars efficiently. That wouldn't be such a problem if the debt levels weren't so high already, this means there is no slack for people to go into debt as they adjust thier spending.
The companies have already been effected by bad government policies. All of the problems are the result of the Bush administration, not an expectation on future changes. The lacks oversight, the in ability to confront foreign policy concerns, environmental problems, or manageable debt stem from the administrations 8 years of incompetence. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Taxes may go up, but not for those who make under something like $200,000 a year. The focus is on the wealthiest in our economy. Also, if Warren Buffet, the richest man in the world, says he should be paying more taxes, I will take him at his word. He also supports Obama. So all this right-wing rhetoric about taxes being raised and the economy is going to suffer, etc. etc., is nothing but crap. Under Bill Clinton, the 1990's, proved to be a very prosperous decade. The right only seems to worry about his personal life. |
Buffet is a fossil. If he wants to pay a 30% capital gains tax, nobody is stopping him. And come on man, I thought you knew about economics. You know it isn't just about hurting "the rich". When you tax incomes above $200k, you are taxing the investors who provide capital for startups...You are taxing every small business in the country. When the capital gains penalty increases, people will seek alternatives with their money...either investing in things that don't provide a gain every year like art/real estate etc, or moving it overseas where they can hide it from greedy politicians. Higher taxes are never good for the economy. We survived in the 90's because of a once in a lifetime technology and internet boom that created millions of jobs and transformed our economy. We also had a responsible congress back then that kept spending in check. Now however we are now faced with huge government spending, huge tax increases, and emerging powers overseas that look very attractive to investors. It's going to get very ugly for the private sector in the USA. |
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| mndeg |
| Actually the true average tax rate for the rich is 15%, it's because of loopholes. The middle class pay the highest % of taxes relative to income. |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
When you tax incomes above $200k, you are taxing the investors who provide capital for startups...You are taxing every small business in the country. When the capital gains penalty increases, people will seek alternatives with their money...either investing in things that don't provide a gain every year like art/real estate etc, or moving it overseas where they can hide it from greedy politicians. |
capital gains penalty???? tell me, why should income earned from the performance of services be treated any differently than income earned by investments? the justification for disparate treatment is bull, and the real reason is so rich people can have a lower effective tax rate. income is income regardless of the form.
as for hiding money overseas, americans are taxed on income they earn regardless of where it is earned. have you ever heard of a PFIC or a CFC? They are mechanisms to prevent americans from parking money overseas in foreign companies they create in order to avoid paying taxes. While there are ways to invest overseas without the income being subject to tax, that money must be earned from an active business (meaning, not passive investments, and not servicing related persons). Unless someone is willing to break the law, it's not that easy to 'hide' money overseas. if they are willing to break the law to hide money, a 5% tax increase isn't the problem.
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Higher taxes are never good for the economy. |
prove it!
i can state a few reasons higher taxes are good for the economy: providing infrastructure to necessitate an efficient economy, providing education to teach the future of the economy, and providing money for research for technological advances. |
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| Capitalizt |
jerz, you really need to get past this class warfare nonsense with regard to taxes. If your goal is to help poor people succeed, then you need to create jobs and spur growth. To do this, you need capital for investment. Higher taxes are a deterrent to new investment. When you tax anything, you tend to get less of it. It is a very simple truth that has been proven time and again with foolish leftist schemes like "luxury" taxes etc..
If 'fairness' is your main argument, you seem to forget that any money someone has to invest in a new project or business in hopes of earning a profit is money that has ALREADY BEEN TAXED at least once (when they earned it). They have already paid their share to uncle Sam, and are now trying to put it to productive use by investing it. Taxing that same money again and again is pure economic folly. The rest of the world is slowly realizing how foolish it is to tax capital gains while trying to grow their economies. Many places are lowering or abolishing their cap gains rates. Mexico..China..Russia...even some Scandanavian countries are abolishing the capital gains tax, or cutting it dramatically below the USA's level. They have realized how much it hurts business growth..and by extension, everyday workers. |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
If 'fairness' is your main argument, you seem to forget that any money someone has to invest in a new project or business in hopes of earning a profit is money that has ALREADY BEEN TAXED at least once (when they earned it). They have already paid their share to uncle Sam, and are now trying to put it to productive use by investing it. Taxing that same money again and again is pure economic folly. |
They're not taxing that money again. They're only taxing the profits that you make from investing that taxed money. For example, you have $10K, you make 20%, you're only taxed on the $2k that you earned from your investment. As such, you're paying absolutely no tax on income that you've paid tax on previously. |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
jerz, you really need to get past this class warfare nonsense with regard to taxes. If your goal is to help poor people succeed, then you need to create jobs and spur growth. To do this, you need capital for investment. Higher taxes are a deterrent to new investment. When you tax anything, you tend to get less of it. It is a very simple truth that has been proven time and again with foolish leftist schemes like "luxury" taxes etc..
If 'fairness' is your main argument, you seem to forget that any money someone has to invest in a new project or business in hopes of earning a profit is money that has ALREADY BEEN TAXED at least once (when they earned it). They have already paid their share to uncle Sam, and are now trying to put it to productive use by investing it. Taxing that same money again and again is pure economic folly. The rest of the world is slowly realizing how foolish it is to tax capital gains while trying to grow their economies. Many places are lowering or abolishing their cap gains rates. Mexico..China..Russia...even some Scandanavian countries are abolishing the capital gains tax, or cutting it dramatically below the USA's level. |
it's not class warfare, i'm pretty well off myself. i'm concerned that people are justifying low taxes under false pretenses: call it for what it is. low capital gains taxes are meant to lower the ETR for rich people because only the rich have the money to invest. it's that simple. i'm a tax lawyer, i see it all the time - almost no one making less than 100K a year benefits from the 5 or 15% capital gains tax.
I would address your comment about double taxing but GHB did it just fine.
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
They have realized how much it hurts business growth..and by extension, everyday workers. |
they have a VAT. would you like to adopt VAT to lower capital gains tax? VAT is much more harmful to growth; it adds to the cost of goods.
on top of that, the US already has one of the lowest capital gains taxes in the world: 5% or 15%. most countries are in the 20% to 30% range. including mexico and china. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
it's not class warfare, i'm pretty well off myself. i'm concerned that people are justifying low taxes under false pretenses: call it for what it is. low capital gains taxes are meant to lower the ETR for rich people because only the rich have the money to invest. it's that simple. i'm a tax lawyer, i see it all the time - almost no one making less than 100K a year benefits from the 5 or 15% capital gains tax.
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Yes, lower rates help rich people but that is NOT THE REASON people advocate them! The economic reasons for lowering the penalty on investment are clear...and it is NOT because we love the rich and want kiss their ass and shower them with gifts. It has nothing to do with trying to reward one group of people over another. It has everything to do with rewarding certain BEHAVIOR and encouraging economic activity that benefits everyone.| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
on top of that, the US already has one of the lowest capital gains taxes in the world: 5% or 15%. most countries are in the 20% to 30% range. including mexico and china. |
Do you have a source for that? Last I heard, the USA had one of the highest cap gains rates among developed countries...and as I was watching CNBC on Friday, someone mentioned that Mexico and Russia were going down to 0% rates.
I'd be interested to be proven wrong on this. I can't find much hard data about current rates through google. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Buffet is a fossil. If he wants to pay a 30% capital gains tax, nobody is stopping him. And come on man, I thought you knew about economics. You know it isn't just about hurting "the rich". When you tax incomes above $200k, you are taxing the investors who provide capital for startups...You are taxing every small business in the country. When the capital gains penalty increases, people will seek alternatives with their money...either investing in things that don't provide a gain every year like art/real estate etc, or moving it overseas where they can hide it from greedy politicians. Higher taxes are never good for the economy. We survived in the 90's because of a once in a lifetime technology and internet boom that created millions of jobs and transformed our economy. We also had a responsible congress back then that kept spending in check. Now however we are now faced with huge government spending, huge tax increases, and emerging powers overseas that look very attractive to investors. It's going to get very ugly for the private sector in the USA. |
Well, why pay higher taxes when you don't have to?
Right now, the middle classes pay a higher percentage of their taxes than do the wealthy. Think about it. Most of the money people like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates make are from their stock holdings, which they hold for years, and thus, don't pay any taxes on the capital gains. Higher taxes also serve to help lower our staggering government deficits, and curtail inflation. Obama would be raising taxes for the wealthiest individuals, which needs to happen, because the majority of the current tax burden is on the middle class. |
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