Originally posted by philliez
So when do you think ACH's price will fall?
I think its impossible to try to time the markets, so all I can tell you is that ACH is worth less than it is trading at now. My belief is that market are not efficient. Meaning, I don't believe that the stock price has all information known priced into the stock. Which means stocks can be mis-priced, which is the basis for my entire strategy.
So what I can tell you is wait for the drop in aluminum spot prices to make an effect on the industry or this company. With my own money, I would not start buying until ACH got within the range $40-45. I mean everything indicates the stock is over priced. Relative strength is 99-100 which means it has outperformed 100% of the market. Anything over 70 is considered highly priced. PE, PB, PS, and P/CF are all above either industry or market averages, another indication of overvaluation.
And I don't know how they can continue this rate of growth for long, especially when aluminum prices have fallen. That will dip into their profits. It's a good company. Just wait for the pullback from the peak. Gotta be patient with it. Could happen next month, in 4 months, or at the beginning of next year. I can't tell you exactly.
mndeg
what websites/software do you guys use to keep track of stocks on a watchlist?
like say you have 20 stocks you want to get in but you're waiting for a pullback
Krypton
I use Yahoo Finance. I'll enter in all the stocks I want to watch, then I input the price I think each stock is worth.
1. I enter ticker symbols.
2. In the "price paid" section I enter the prices I think the stock is worth, NOT a price paid.
When I look at the list, the gains column becomes the % at which the stock is under or over valued. SO, if the gains are negative red, the stock is undervalued, if the gains are positive green, the stock is overvalued. I wait until the gains say -10%, which means the stock price is 10% BELOW the price I think its worth, so I'll buy a position, and sell when the gains become 0 again.
atbell
quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
My belief is that market are not efficient. Meaning, I don't believe that the stock price has all information known priced into the stock.
Markets are fairly close to perfectly efficient, you're running into problems because you are assuming that people are rational.
atbell
Just had the first look at my motly collection of stocks on Marketocracy, it looks like I'm almost back at even.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Goldman (GS) are holding me back with big losses. Microsoft, Shell, and BP are also loosers. But the metals have gained on thier initial position.
Then there's dirty Haliburton, up 12% since the start.
I'm expecting to do much better longer term. I think Brookfield might be set to recover because it's heavy in green power and the canceled bid to buy CP is well in the past.
Krypton
quote:
Originally posted by atbell
Markets are fairly close to perfectly efficient, you're running into problems because you are assuming that people are rational.
An efficient market requires rational people, not the other way around.
I believe the markets are not efficient, so therefore, the people in it are not rational, otherwise I could not capitalize on the differences in value between stock price and intrinsic value...
As Warrent Buffet said, "If markets were efficient, I'de be out of a job." ;)
quote:
Just had the first look at my motly collection of stocks on Marketocracy, it looks like I'm almost back at even.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Goldman (GS) are holding me back with big losses. Microsoft, Shell, and BP are also loosers. But the metals have gained on thier initial position.
Then there's dirty Haliburton, up 12% since the start.
I'm expecting to do much better longer term. I think Brookfield might be set to recover because it's heavy in green power and the canceled bid to buy CP is well in the past.
I got into GS when it was below $180:p
Krypton
I GOT MONEY IN THE BANK:toothless
Krypton
My largest gainer EXM remains a buy and its sector of dry-bulk shipping is expected continue reaching record highs... Buy it or not, this is just a little tip..
quote:
Sector Snap: Drybulk Shippers
OffSector Glance: Major Web Co.'s Mostly Up
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of drybulk shippers soared Monday as spot charter rates for the vessels hit yet another all-time high, and a Jefferies & Co. analyst said he sees the market remaining robust at least through 2008.
Analyst Douglas J. Mavrinac said he continues to see drybulk charter rates hitting all-time highs through the end of the year. Mavrinac reiterated his "Buy" rating on Diana Shipping Inc., citing the Greek carrier's increased "financial flexibility" following a 10 million share public offering on Friday, with proceeds estimated at about $250 million.
The company also has an "attractive mix" of long-term time charter contracts, Mavrinac said, and strong exposure to the spot market, where rates continue to soar.
The Baltic Dry Index, which covers drybulk shipping rates and is managed by the Baltic Exchange in London, jumped 126 points Monday to close at an all-time high of 9082, after setting consecutive all-time highs both Thursday and Friday.
The index measures rates on 40 shipping routes on a time charter and voyage basis.
Meanwhile, Mavrinac raised his price target on shares of DryShips Inc. to $100 per share after the stock hit the analyst's $80 price target Friday. Mavrinac noted it's likely the company will raise its earnings per share estimates as it continues to benefit from the ever-bullish drybulk market.
In midday trading, shares of Diana Shipping rose $1.33, or 5 percent, to $28.10 in midday trading, after changing hands as high as $28.27 earlier in the session. The all-time high for the stock is $29.68.
DryShips jumped $4.21, or 5.2 percent, to $85.86, after hitting an all-time high of $86.76 earlier in the session. The previous all-time high for the stock was $81.75.
Quintana Maritime Ltd. gained 8 cents to $19.33, after trading as high as $19.90 earlier in the session. The stock's all-time high is $20.20.
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. rose 43 cents, to 3.4 percent to $13.23, and Euroseas Ltd. added 21 cents to $15.01. Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. soared $3.81, or 7.5 percent, to $54.48, after hitting an all-time high of $54.89 earlier in the session. The previous all-time high was $50.74.
Shares of Genco Shipping & Trading rose 61 cents to $65.75.
quote:
The combination of strong global growth and weak dollar also set off a commodity grab, amid worries about pricier imports, rising raw-material costs and inflation. Crude oil rose 4.5% last week to $81.62 a barrel, near its highest since 1980. Gold climbed to a 27-year high above $734, and, proving it isn't merely a weak-dollar phenomenon, also rose in euro, yen, rupee and dinar terms.
With an accommodating Federal Reserve now largely factored into stock prices, what more can the bulls count on? It helps that market sentiment is hardly giddy, and bulls clearly hope for more cautious money to move off the sidelines if economic data improve and energy costs back off.
More mergers and buybacks also wouldn't hurt. Until then, the market will remain sensitive to economic news, and the option market's volatility forecast shouldn't fall much further after last week's conspicuous retreat.
On the other hand, stocks perched near record peaks aren't factoring in much more than a shallow economic slump, and any interference with that picture --painful earnings, job layoffs -- poses a threat. A weak economy also offers an easy opening for politicians to beat the protectionist drum.
For now, none of the worries appear daunting enough to stop investors from rejoining the ranks of the "fretfully invested." As one money manager candidly admits, he can afford a 10% correction suffered along with the rest of the market. But miss a 10% rally that others caught, and he might never eat lunch in this town again.
COMMODITY SHIPPERS HAVE RISEN above the choppy stock market with all the buoyancy of champagne cork -- thanks to the global commodity boom and investors' clamor for overseas revenue. Shares of Dryships (DRYS), for example, have soared 320% this year, and Excel Maritime (EXM) is up 222%.
Analysts expect the sector to keep chugging ahead, and it very well might. But at these prices, a lot of good news already is priced into the stocks -- well more than the potential downside from, say, any moderation in shipping rates or a letup in global growth.
Aegean Marine Petroleum (ANW) supplies fuel to ships both in port and at sea, and offers an alternative vehicle to ride the shipping boom. At 31.70, shares have jumped 40% since Jefferies analyst Douglas Mavrinac first flagged the stock on Sept. 14 but still lag behind the 42 target he says they ought to be worth.
With shipyards bursting with orders, Aegean should see increased demand for its services in the years to come. The task of schlepping fuel to ships, undertaken by oil companies decades ago, increasingly is falling to independent suppliers, and Aegean -- which already has service hubs in the Mediterranean, Singapore, Jamaica, United Arab Emirates and on the west coast of Africa -- should continue to snag market share from its smaller, regional peers.
A strong balance sheet with no net debt also gives Aegean financial flexibility and the option to buy smaller, undercapitalized companies. Aegean is expected to double the number of its service hubs and nearly triple its fleet by 2010, and Mavrinac expects sales volume to rise four-fold from 2.3 million metric tons of fuel in 2006 to 9.2 million by 2010. He expects earnings per share, at about 68 cents in 2007, to reach $1.72 in 2008, $3.22 in 2009 and $4.50 in 2010.
Another catalyst: The world's supply of bunkering tankers that can deliver heavy-grade marine fuel will fall off sharply after 2008, as single-hull oil tankers are phased out in accordance with an international rule aimed at reducing pollution in an accident. But Aegean's 16-strong fleet consists of 14 double-hull bunkering tankers. And it has orders for 28 new vessels.
Capitalizt
What the hell...I decided to short big today. No guts no glory! :wtf:
atbell
I finnally beat the indexes! Take that S&P:whip:
My gut tells me that the markets have figured out what has staying power and what is going to be hit by an economic slow down / sub-prime fall out. If I'm right I expect some significant gains and Capitalizt's short might pay off huge.
Krypton
quote:
Originally posted by atbell
I finnally beat the indexes! Take that S&P:whip:
My gut tells me that the markets have figured out what has staying power and what is going to be hit by an economic slow down / sub-prime fall out. If I'm right I expect some significant gains and Capitalizt's short might pay off huge.
I expect the Fed interest rate cuts to buoye stocks, so I would expect Capitalizts short to fail. I just don't like shorting entire markets, which is really all you can do in the marketocracy..
UNLESSSS, you make a short only mutual fund. Then you can short all the stocks you want. I'de only recommend shorting overvalued stocks with horrible fundamentals.
But, hey, this is me, and my strategy. Do what you guys want, I will still own you:p :p :p ..
