|
TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 121)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| spdandpwr |
| i don't think his pessimistic outlook is a true reflection of whats going on out there. sure he knows more and is more exposed to the markets than me, but third quarter economic indicators, for the most part, turned out to be better than projected. |
|
|
| Moongoose |
| Totally forgot to announce it here, but i scored a job as a stock broker a few weeks ago, and so far im loving it. The only thing wrong with it is that i cant lie on my ass all day long and play fallout as much as i want to (figures i would get a time consuming job at the time when a game that i have been waiting to come out for nearly a decade finally arrives). Finally ive stepped on the correct path towards that nice house, a bmw and a boat :p |
|
|
| spdandpwr |
| CONGRATULATIONS!!! Don't leverage yourself too much now. by the way, what were some answers in your interview that helped you stand-out? I have been to third round interviews but for some reason can't make it passed that....sucks... |
|
|
| Krypton |
Here is my analysis of the 3rd quarter of 2008 financial statements. This is my watch list plus a few requests. The Dow Jones is in there too. My watch list entails the best of the best stocks I have found in my 2 years of doing this analysis. It's just my personal favorites based on my analysis.
If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask.
*Disclaimer: I am not giving any financial advice whatsoever. You do with your money what you want. I will only tell you what I would do.
 |
|
|
| Shakka |
I hear this guy's still looking for a job. Great book pal.
We actually keep a copy of this book in our office just as a pleasant reminder of the irrational exuberance of the late '90's. |
|
|
| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
I hear this guy's still looking for a job. Great book pal.
We actually keep a copy of this book in our office just as a pleasant reminder of the irrational exuberance of the late '90's. |
Haha
| quote: | | At the heart of Glassman and Hassett's argument is the idea that stocks have been undervalued for decades and that, for the next few years, investors can expect a dramatic one-time upward adjustment in stock prices. |
| quote: | | Many will dismiss this kind of thinking as wishful, but they're probably the same Chicken Littles who have been calling the market overpriced for years (think back to January 1993, when the Dow was hovering around 3,300). |
|
|
|
| atbell |
I don't like any of these 'explanations', they seem like reading tea leaves. If I cared more I'd actually get into the math of it but my intuition says it's a waste of time.
I'd venture that everything can be explained with supply and demand on a basic level. Things get complicated because there are just so many different relationships to figure out.
Trend spotting would probably be best done by studying psycology and sociology. Thow in some economics, cultural studies, and a tad of political science and you'll probably get a good idea of what's going on.
Another possibility is that these formula are just the brain child of accademics with to much time on thier hands. |
|
|
| atbell |
Haven't posted in here or looked at my fake port folio in a while.
Looks like the people who haven't touched it for ages are doing the best :toothless
How are those shipping stock Krypton? I hope you got out when I blasted them ;)
Luckly I'm still holding a wad of virtual cash, ready to buy....
Probably in a couple of months, I don't want to touch things until I see how late Jan / early Feb turn out. |
|
|
| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
I don't like any of these 'explanations', they seem like reading tea leaves. If I cared more I'd actually get into the math of it but my intuition says it's a waste of time.
I'd venture that everything can be explained with supply and demand on a basic level. Things get complicated because there are just so many different relationships to figure out.
Trend spotting would probably be best done by studying psycology and sociology. Thow in some economics, cultural studies, and a tad of political science and you'll probably get a good idea of what's going on.
Another possibility is that these formula are just the brain child of accademics with to much time on thier hands. |
I agree that the results do seem a bit vague at best, but the graph is not pure chaos, it does have some order... |
|
|
| Krypton |
Just thought I'd share this. According to these formulas, the market is very VERY under priced. What does this mean? The perfect time to buy. Buy low, sell high, right? Well, it's low. These just simple formulas based on the 10-year treasury yield, earnings yield, and dividend yield. If you can yield more on a treasury bill than the earnings or dividend yield, the market is over priced. If opposite is true, the market under priced. Currently, both the earnings and dividend yields of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are substantially higher than the 10Y-Treasury yield which indicates it makes much more sense to be buying stocks now rather than treasury bills.
NOTE: I omitted General Motors (GM) from the earnings yield average because it's earnings yield is like -1800% which would completely throw off the average. |
|
|
| Capitalizt |
The market might be undervalued if the earnings estimates stick...but the trouble is many companies are going to be losing LOTS more money than they previously expected.. Things are worse than most people anticipated, so old earnings estimates are largely meaningless.
Drop those estimates 20-25% and see what your model says then Krypt. I think the market is fairly valued, or even slightly overvalued given current fundamentals. |
|
|
|
|
