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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 28)
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
The problem with fundamentals is if the market saggs everything gets hit. Or, to say it differently, if the fundamentals of the US economy are weak (which I think they are) all of the stocks suffer.
My top 4 picks are ones that don't have many ties to the US economy. RTP (Rio Tinto), Microsoft, BHP Bilton, and (for shame) Haliburton are all performing well. I think it's because thier sucess is based on the performance of the world not simply the US.
BAM (Brookfeild asset management) is still dragging me down but I have faith that thier holdings are profitable and that the management is competent.
Completely clueless about why RDS.B (Shell) and BP (BP) are doing so badly. I must have bought them at a high. |
I find myself in the same boat. My multinational foreign stocks are outperforming US stocks.
But in regards to the fundamentals. You know my mantra is follow the fundamentals. If the market falls, GREAT! That's good. It's the time to buy. It's a Christmas sale everytime there is correction. Like with the correction of the last two weeks. It's basically Christmas shopping in my book.
So if you have a fundamentally great stock, and the market drags it down. Buy more. Use "dollar cost averaging" and your losses will be averaged out. Who cares what the market is doing!! Bottom-up analysis is what I do. Forget about the rest of the market. They are your competitors!! Don't do what your competitors do or you'll lose. Start your analysis at the business level on up. If you buy an excellent business like microsoft or wal-mart and hold them, buying on the market downturns, you will compound your investment until your head explodes, you'll make a gazillion bucks!!:p:p
I stress having quality companies though, or the system won't work. Looking at credit ratings helps a lot and also knowing the fundamental strength and gamma metrics. I can tell you the FS and gamma of any stocks you want and explain what it all means. |
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| venomX |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
this thread is amusing. |
Want to chip in then? I don't think anyone here claims to be an expert. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by venomX
Want to chip in then? I don't think anyone here claims to be an expert. |
Nah. This is hard as hell--I do it for a living. I don't think my insights are any more or less valuable than most. I just find all of the back and forth to be amusing. |
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| Krypton |
THE ALGORITHM HAS SPOKEN...
For more in-depth analysis, click ---->>> OFFICIAL Q4 STOCK REPORT (FS & GAMMA)
On January 1, 2008, I will post the performance results of these companies, and update for the Q1-2008 stock report. Understand that this is my own personal research, and while VERY thorough, these lists do not serve any advisory function whatsoever. Had to announce that because the SEC outlaws stock advice from non-accredited people.
Here are my buys for the 4th Quarter 2007... (SELLS Below)
BUYS
EGY
FCX
RIO
XTO
BXP
PCU
AB
COH
TGA
CNQ
ABP
ESV
TMX
NE
ACAS
MSFT
SU
ANF
CRDN
CVX
PTEN
UNT
RES
DVN
GS
SAFM
TSP
BHI
OSG
SELL THESE BIATCHeS
AXR
GME
PETD
MDR
TOL
CUZ
DAC
T
PNC
USB
WYNN
VMW |
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| Krypton |
I looked at the 30 stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Index and this is my result...We'll see how good they do by next quarter Q1 2008...More HERE
The stocks I would buy stock or call options from the DJIX as of Q4 2007...
Stock- FS- Gamma
INTC - 84 - 1.13
JNJ - 81 - 1.11
MMM - 78 - 1.44
JPM - 71 - 1.84
BA - 71 - 1.41
IBM - 70 - 1.15
The stocks of the DJIX I would consider to short sell or buy option puts as of Q4 2007...
Stock- FS- GAMMA
MCD - 31 - 0.36
HON - 31 - 0.47
HPQ - 38 - 0.49
AA - 31 - 0.5
GM - 22 - 0.58
UTX - 52 - 0.75
GE - 48 - 0.78
VZ - 56 - 0.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For Quarter 4...
The 10 cheapest stocks...
Stock - Gamma
C - 4.5
AIG - 2.4
HD - 1.95
JPM - 1.84
PFE - 1.55
MMM - 1.44
BA - 1.41
AXP - 1.3
F - 1.19
IBM - 1.15
The 10 strongest stocks...
Stock- FS
INTC - 84
MSFT - 83
JNJ - 81
MMM - 78
XOM - 78
MRK - 72
JPM - 71
BA - 71
IBM - 70
T - 66
The 10 most expensive stocks...
Stock- Gamma
MCD - 0.36
HON - 0.47
HPQ - 0.49
AA - 0.5
GM - 0.58
PG - 0.72
UTX - 0.75
KO - 0.76
GE - 0.78
VZ - 0.8
The 10 weakest stocks...
Stock- FS
GM - 22
AA - 31
HON - 31
MCD - 31
HPQ - 38
GE - 48
DIS - 50
UTX - 52
HD - 54
VZ - 56 |
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| venomX |
| Im recovering nicely from the hit a couple of weeks ago. Up to 9.88 today from a low of 8.95 last week. Many of my stocks are performing excellently posting good gains. Some are just in recovery from last week. I've been looking recently at some Korean stocks, namely KB and SHG. My best performing stocks this week are REGN, IBN, STD and to up until today when it took a bit of a dive LDK. How are you guys doing after the last couple of weeks? |
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| Krypton |
| I fell from the 11.90's in October to the 10.60's in November. Now I'm comfortably up above 11.00. Made some mistakes, quickly took care of them, and will never happen again. Strategy has been tweated. psiweaver, watch out with your 3 stocks. |
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| Krypton |
One should never be completely out of stocks. The subprime market is only 1.8% of the entire mortgage market, with less than 1% who are in foreclosure. It's being completely overblown to make it seem like it's the apocalypse. It's not THAT bad, really.
I'de go in 10% bond/silver/gold, 90% stock right now. |
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| venomX |
A bunch of the things he mentions have been reversing. Oil is going down, jobs have been unexpectedly higher. For every down and gloom article about the US economy you can find one saying the opposite. Truth is there might be a recession next year, but that doesn't mean that all sectors of the US economy will be affected. Not only that, you would be foolish to think that US equity is the only place to put your money. Many ADR's have been performing excellently, even during this whole 'crisis'. I think you might be being a bit pessimistic. |
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| Krypton |
You guys should check out the Motley Fool CAPS. Basically, you make stock picks based on your opinion of whether the stock will underperform or outperform the S&P500, and you get ranked and scored based on how much your picks made and how many you were correct on.
Check out mine, and start your own, then add me FUNDAMENTALGAMMA, as a favorite...
http://caps.fool.com/MyPlayer.aspx?...fltnvsnv0000001 |
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| venomX |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
You guys should check out the Motley Fool CAPS. Basically, you make stock picks based on your opinion of whether the stock will underperform or outperform the S&P500, and you get ranked and scored based on how much your picks made and how many you were correct on.
Check out mine, and start your own, then add me FUNDAMENTALGAMMA, as a favorite...
http://caps.fool.com/MyPlayer.aspx?...fltnvsnv0000001 |
Been looking at the Motley fool for a while now, they have fairly sound advice. Too bad you have to pay for any substantial information though. CAPS is a very interesting tool, haven't really played around with it much.I've found that stocks are way too distracting when I'm trying to study, I spend too much time evaluating different ones and planning out a strategy, talk about the ultimate procrastination :p |
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