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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 114)
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm seriously looking at GE, INTC, and CSCO for the long run..
opinions? |
i second the GE pickup. The PE ratio is simply too low for GE (a phenomenal company). It's a huge bargain in my opinion. |
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| Shakka |
| I am really praying that we found a bottom today (One that will probably need to be retested in time). Watching the market action this week, particularly the last 2 days, and even the last hour today, was one of the craziest things I have ever seen. VIX 77 is where we held our ground...unheard of levels of fear and panic. My next license plate will read "VIX 7694". If only the folks on CBNC would be more bearish and hopeless I'd feel better about the call, but I'm feeling pretty good, tbh. I also picked up some GE today. And some KO. I am in buying mode right now, but it is a very cautious buying mode. |
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| spdandpwr |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
I am really praying that we found a bottom today (One that will probably need to be retested in time). I also picked up some GE today. And some KO. I am in buying mode right now, but it is a very cautious buying mode. |
yea, KO looks like a really good deal, i don't know why the sudden spike in volume, but the fact that its at its lowest price in over 5 years makes it worthwhile.
Also, can you explain why coke's beta is so low, shouldn't it be closer to 1 as it seems to move more with the general trend of the market. |
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| mndeg |
No chance of a market bottom. Not even close. A g7 meeting that did not result in anything substantial is hardly a catalyst for a bottom.
Real (market) bottom when all banks that are insolvent actually go BK , housing becomes affordable, and real wages rise (almost the entire american economy IS the consumer as it should be). There's no way around it. You can't take taxpayer money to give to banks to lend to taxpayers. LOL. Giving money to banks won't revive the credit market either. Banks will horde all the money they can get.
Market bottoms happen when people stop calling bottoms.
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm seriously looking at GE, INTC, and CSCO for the long run..
opinions? |
these companies are nothing without consumers. and essentially all stocks trade along with the entire market (S&P500/DJ).
GE relies a lot on borrowing money short term. plus they have exposure to subprime. the market is not as illogical as you think.
it's time for a change of mindset. a lot of the valuations we've seen in the recent past were a bubble fueled by a decade of cheap credit and imaginary wealth. |
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| spdandpwr |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I am currently doing an analysis on my watchlist, which will take a few days, but here is a screenshot of my last analysis of the Dow Jones Index, about a month ago. From this index, I'de say the best companies are CAT, VZ, and DD...according to the n-multiple...a measure named after myself...:D
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is that a variation of excel that you are using? anyway we can get it, or get the forumals for the cells at least? |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by spdandpwr
is that a variation of excel that you are using? anyway we can get it, or get the forumals for the cells at least? |
It's OpenOffice.org Calc program. It's free. But I was able to get Microsoft Office Ultimate for a 90% student discount, so now I use good ole Excel again. This spreadsheet is mostly results. The real calculations are done on the other sheets. I'm afraid I can't give you those formulas, but I'de be more than happy to do an analysis on any company your interested in. |
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| spdandpwr |
| Thanks for offering to look up a company...i won't take you up on your offer...at least not yet, but if i may ask, are you able to explain the terms on row 1 (not the formulas, but what do they mean). More specifically, the nathan multiple and the intrinsic value. Thanks again! |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by spdandpwr
Thanks for offering to look up a company...i won't take you up on your offer...at least not yet, but if i may ask, are you able to explain the terms on row 1 (not the formulas, but what do they mean). More specifically, the nathan multiple and the intrinsic value. Thanks again! |
oh sure.. I thought you meant you wanted the excel formulas. I'll give the you formulas themselves.
Market Value = The current stock price at the moment I created this chart.
Intrinsic Value = What I have calculated the stock's value to be worth.
Intrinsic Discount = The discount of the market price from the intrinsic value.
Gamma = A ratio whereby a stock rating on a scale of 1-100 is divided by the relative strength (the % of the market the stock has outperformed) of the stock. A gamma ratio of below 1 indicates an over priced stock. A gamma ratio of above 1 indicates an under priced stock.
Inverse Gamma = The inverse of the game. (1/Gamma) = Inverse Gamma.
PEG = A ratio which measures the value of a stock's expected profit growth. A PEG of below 1 indicates the stock's expected profit growth is under valued. A PEG of above 1 indicates a stocks' expected profit is over valued.
EPS Growth Estimate = What I have calculated the Earnings per Share (EPS) growth rate will be from the beginning of this year to the beginning of next year. The term earnings is just another word for profit and they are used interchangably.
EPS Change in Estimated Growth From Last Year to Future Estimate = This is the percentage change of the EPS growth rate from last year and the estimated EPS growth rate for this year. For example, stock A had an EPS growth rate of 10% last year. This year, I have estimated it is going to be 15%. The change in estimated growth from last to future estimate is therefore, 15-10 = 5%
Nathan Multiple = This measures the value of a stock's fundamentals, expected profit growth, and the increase in expected profit growth from last year. The theory behind this multiple, is that a stock's most valuable when it's under priced by the market, and is expected to increase profit growth. A stock with an n-multiple below 1 means the stock's fundamentals value, and expected profit growth, are under priced by the market. This metric is named after myself! |
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| we_R_DNA |
Is this still going or did it end?
and is it to late to join? |
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| Funkesthesiac69 |
Can anyone say ETFs LIKE FXF (betting that the partially gold backed swiss franc currency will appreciate with respect to the dollar)?
GLD perhaps? |
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