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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 156)
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| Shakka |
| $550K, 6 hours to go. |
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| Krypton |
| Lots of buying in bonds lately. Could be a bearish signal. Keep watching. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Moongoose
BTW Krypton, i just remembered today something that ive been meaning to tell you for some time now and i just remembered today after looking up something on your site...just because you can show your buy/sell stock pics as a bmp file doesnt mean you should ;) Not that much of a problem when viewing the page on the computer, buy if you're checking the site on a mobile phone its damn annoying :) Anyway thats about it.
I finally have some time again to work on my marketocracy funds, ive left them alone for more than a month and it shows...i was beating the market while actively trading, but when left alone ive been constantly in the red. |
Ah, never expected people would be viewing the website on the phone.. |
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| Shakka |
| $800K+, 4 hours to go. Last year's winning bid was $2.1M. |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
question about acquistions.
I'm dealing with a comapny offering a .75 ratio of its shares to the company it will soon acquire.
new shares will be issued to replace the shares of the old compnay which will be canceled.
It seems that the main company's share value is about 5 percent higher then the one to be aqcuired. I was thinking if it would be a good idea to go in other company to be acquired at a discount so i can better capitalize on the situation.
I haven't really followed an acquisition closely but doesnt the acquirer usually drop a bit in share value immediately before the merger? hence on trading day i might get scewed with that ratio.
seems a bit risky to gamble on that discount if it can infact turn into a premium lol.
For general intrest the companies are the following
WTN:TO
CBM:LON
acquisition date is july 13th |
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| Shakka |
It's called merger arbitrage. There are companies and funds that make their living doing what you're talking about (or shorting the acquirer and buying the target company, shorting the common, buying convertible preferreds, etc.) Your major risk is that the deal is renegotiated at less favorable terms or falls through the cracks. As the merger/deal date approaches, the target company's price should gravitate towards the deal price.
Also, if the deal is an all stock deal, the target company's price is going to fluctuate relative to the stock price of the acquirer. All cash deals are easier to play in the scenario suggested above. Otherwise it can get a little exciting. |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
shareholders have already approved and basically wating on the courts to sort everything. IT looks pretty much like a go.
im weary about dealing with british currency as a variable as the canadian has been preforming quite strong.. its probably safer to just go in on the acquirer. unless i see significant range. |
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| saluyamo |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
ETFs are right up my ally for the skill set that I have which is macro level and DEFINATELY not company analysis.
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I'm the opposite, I understand fundamentals and I like to use them.
A lot of ETFs funds I've skimmed over have negative YoY returns, along with the fact they don't show as much information as shares I'm more hesitant in investing in them. This will probably change once I get more experience in tech analysis
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I feel a correction coming in my bones.. The market has been too complacent lately...moving steadily up up up..too much optimism IMO. "Something" is going to happen soon that sends stocks down a quick 15%. We have gone too long without any 'incidents'..I think we are overdue for one..just a hunch. |
I dont know how knowledgeable they are but the marketwatch community is very very bearish (as well as thinking that GS is the devil). |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
didnt we just have a huge drop last week.. the markets volatile lately
im losing my shirt. |
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| saluyamo |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
didnt we just have a huge drop last week.. the markets volatile lately
im losing my shirt. |
Actually the (US)market has been going mostly up. Last weeks drop was meant to be from the world bank releasing a report saying that global growth is expected to be lower than previous forcasts..
| quote: | | TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The global economy will shrink 2.9% this year, the World Bank said Monday, a steeper decline than the 1.7% contraction it predicted in March. The recovery is expected to be weak, with global growth of just 2% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011. Economies in Europe and Central Asia are expected to recover more slowly than China or the United States, the new forecast said. "The timing and strength of the eventual recovery in the global economy remain highly uncertain." Read more on the World Bank's Web site. The grim forecast helped weaken markets, traders said. Stocks and commodities were trading lower Monday. See Market Snapshot. However, one analyst said blaming the World Bank report was just an excuse. "I have never talked to an institution that has made a sale on stocks based upon the World Bank's opinion of what the global economy is going to look like," Tony Dwyer, equity market strategist at FTN Equity Capital Markets, told MarketWatch. Listen to the interview. The world has entered an era of slower growth that will require tighter and more effective oversight of the financial system, the World Bank said in a statement. "Unemployment is on the rise, and poverty is set to increase in developing economies, bringing with it a substantial deterioration in conditions for the world's poor and most vulnerable." Global trade volumes are projected to shrink 9.7% this year, putting many developing countries at risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. It also warned that international capital to developing nations will continue to slow, with flows projected to fall to $363 billion in 2009 from their peak of $1.2 trillion in 2007. Developing countries will grow by 1.2% in 2009, the World Bank indicated, down from 5.9% in 2008 and 8.1% in 2007. Excluding China and India, gross domestic product in developing countries is expected to contract 1.6%. The developed economies will contract 4.2% this year, including 6.8% in Japan, 4.5% in the euro zone and 3% in the United States. Both businesses and consumers have grown more cautious. Investment spending fell at a 16.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter in high-income economies, and at a 25% annual rate in developing economies. In March, the World Bank said the slowdown represents "nothing less than an emergency" for economic and social development in low-income countries. Last November, the bank said the global economy would probably grow 0.9% in 2009 and 3% in 2010. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by saluyamo
Actually the (US)market has been going mostly up. Last weeks drop was meant to be from the world bank releasing a report saying that global growth is expected to be lower than previous forcasts.. |
The market has run out of buyers at least until the 2nd quarter earnings reports come out. If you look at the main index charts, you'll see, for example, resistance in the 8500-9000 range of the Dow Jones Industrials. |
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| saluyamo |
| quote: | | Shares of American International Group Inc. were down more than 20% in premarket trading Wednesday after shareholders approved a proposal Tuesday to effect a 1-for-20 reverse stock split. Shareholders defeated a proposal to increase the number of AIG common shares at the company's annual meeting. AIG, the insurance giant that was bailed out by the government, also saw an overhaul of its board of directors at Tuesday's meeting |
If AIG stocks plummit (which seems like they probably will sooner or later) will we be looking at another massive drop similar to the one near the end of last year? |
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