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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 85)
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| Krypton |
Sorry guys, this took so long. Mongoos, and Capitalizt, your picks are here..
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| Capitalizt |
hmm..PVX gamma value of $5100, while the stock is only $10.00 Looks good to me. lol ;)
Thanks |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
hmm..PVX gamma value of $5100, while the stock is only $10.00 Looks good to me. lol ;)
Thanks |
lol, nono. That's in Chilean Pesos!
5100 Chilean Pesos = $10
The company reports earnings in Chilean Pesos, which means I have to do my analysis in Chilean Pesos..;)
The gamma is .98, which basically means it's slightly overvalued, but basically the market price is really close to what the company is actually worth, according to the gamma measure. |
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| mndeg |
i will predict the future
imax exceeds expected earnings tomorrow on open
FNM, HPT tank tomorrow
XLF down over 1%
SPY down over 1%
WFMI down
POT (and industry) up
MER down huge? |
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| Krypton |
New revised data shows speculators controlled nearly half of NYMEX oil futures. ONE TRADER controlled 460 million barrels by himself!!
| quote: | Revised data show speculators controlled nearly half of NYMEX oil futures
CFTC data also reveals one trader controlled 10% of oil futures on exchange
August 5, 2008
(Reuters)—A quiet data revision that has boosted by nearly 25% the number of oil futures contracts U.S. regulators think are held by speculators. And that revelation is raising eyebrows in the energy trading community.
The revision means that speculators controlled 48% of the open interest in NYMEX crude oil futures and options as of July 15—compared with just over 38% under the previous classification.
“That’s huge when you look at the numbers,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago.
“It changes the whole way you look at the recent moves in this market.”
The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission announced on July 18 that it was reclassifying some trading positions that it had reported as commercial hedging positions as noncommercial speculative positions.
The data revision converted approximately 327,000 long and 330,000 short NYMEX crude oil futures and options positions into mostly spreading positions held by speculators.
The big shift is all the more surprising, oil traders and analysts said, since the CFTC reclassified only one unidentified oil trader at the same time as the data revision.
“There may have been multiple ‘positions’ which were reclassified ... but they all appear to have been held by just one trader, and this was a very special trader, with an enormous concentration of positions in crude oil amounting to perhaps 460 million barrels, and not much interest in anything else,” noted John Kemp of RBS Sempra Commodities.
A CFTC spokeswoman declined to elaborate on the move or to identify the trader that had been reclassified as a speculator.
The reclassification comes amid the collapse of energy trader SemGroup LP, which filed for bankruptcy on July 22 after suffering $3.2 billion in losses on oil futures and derivatives.
SemGroup has blamed its collapse on unauthorized speculative oil trading by its co-founder and former chief executive, according to a court filing by a SemGroup lender.
The SemGroup collapse coincided with a sharp fall in oil futures from their peak over $147 a barrel in mid-July. However a person familiar with SemGroup’s trading position said Monday the trader’s position was not concentrated in any one month and was more focused on intermonth spread positions.
“This was no Amaranth or Motherrock,” said the person familiar with SemGroup’s futures trading book, referring to two energy hedge funds whose multibillion dollar failures roiled futures markets.
SemGroup began the process of transferring its NYMEX trading book to Barclays on July 11 after drawing down a $54 million line of credit to place a deposit with the British bank, according to bankruptcy court testimony.
SemGroup completed the transfer of its trading book to Barclays on July 16.
The transfer of SemGroup’s NYMEX trading position was instigated by the exchange itself, according to a source familiar with the NYMEX’s activities.
SemGroup’s financial difficulties were first disclosed by its publicly traded subsidiary SemGroup Energy Partners LP on July 17, three days after its parent hired The Blackstone Groupto advise it on restructuring and two days after a conference call with its lenders where it told them it had run out of cash.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Justice Department are investigating SemGroup Energy Partners’ disclosure practices. |
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| mndeg |
it was fairly apparent that crude was being manipulated when all these IB's were reporting earnings and they made a TON of money from trading commodities
noooooooo wrong on imax but right about everything else so far.
looks like the majority of people that bought/wrote options were wrong
"i will predict the future
imax exceeds expected earnings tomorrow on open
FNM, HPT tank tomorrow
XLF down over 1%
SPY down over 1%
WFMI down
POT (and industry) up
MER down huge?"
IMAX - was wrong on this one, looks like a lot of people lost money
on calls. however, not the worst miss and decent guidance. -2.81%
fnm - down 12.59% right now
hpt - up 1.08% it'll probably tank later
XLF - -3.09%
SPY - .58% down, was 1% at open but recovered some, we'll see by end of day
WFMI -4.59%
POT - couldn't hold it's gains today, went from positive to -1.69%
MER -7% |
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| Krypton |
| I seem to do the opposite of the market. I'm up today in almost every fund, while the market is down. |
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| mndeg |
what does your actual portfolio based off of?
i think the real test will be tomorrow, likely a even bigger down day. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
what does your actual portfolio based off of?
i think the real test will be tomorrow, likely a even bigger down day. |
Fundamentals. I could care less what the market is doing, or what the Fed sets interest rates at, or what the trade deficit is. I care to know, but macroeconomics plays no part in my investment philosophy.
Oh, but my #1 sector is technology, as I said before, there's always a bull in all business cycles. I moved from commodities to technology, and once technology blows up, I move on to the next sector. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
...but macroeconomics plays no part in my investment philosophy. |
A shame. But as a value investor it is not surprising. I look at the famed value investors like Marty Whitman and Bill Miller who are getting their asses handed to them. They care not about the macro and it shows. Even Buffet is getting clocked this year (Berkshire is down about 26% from its peak late last year). Even if they are "long-term" investors, look at how much money they're leaving on the table by ignoring the macro that is staring them in the face. Whitman is going to lose a boatload on beaten down financials on their way to zero in the name of value investing. Sad. Knowing the macro can help you be early (though definitely too early at times). However I'd rather be early than late personally. Fundamentals can show you the light, but they can't carry your portfolio alone. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
A shame. But as a value investor it is not surprising. I look at the famed value investors like Marty Whitman and Bill Miller who are getting their asses handed to them. They care not about the macro and it shows. Even Buffet is getting clocked this year (Berkshire is down about 26% from its peak late last year). Even if they are "long-term" investors, look at how much money they're leaving on the table by ignoring the macro that is staring them in the face. Whitman is going to lose a boatload on beaten down financials on their way to zero in the name of value investing. Sad. Knowing the macro can help you be early (though definitely too early at times). However I'd rather be early than late personally. Fundamentals can show you the light, but they can't carry your portfolio alone. |
I view an investment as owning the business. If you owned a business, would you sell it just because the market wasn't doing so good? I don't think so..but that's because you think of the securities you trade as stocks, instruments, vehicles, something to be traded. I try to put that philosophy completely out of mind. Because if I don't, I'll lose my mind watching the market's ups and downs. By the way, having a negative year does not spell "run for the hills". Over the long-term, I believe a focused value portfolio beats 99% of all growth strategies handily. So what if there is a negative year? All business owners have negative years sometimes during their existence. It's nothing to be afraid of. |
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| mndeg |
but the upside of owning a stock is that it's liquid, you can get rid of it any time you want. a corporation has assets that are highly illiquid, and even if you did get rid of it most likely it would be sold at fire sale prices. imagine of warren buffet employed a simple rule like only buy fundamentally strong stocks that have moved above their 200 ma. he would be MUCH MUCH MUCH richer. I've read one of his books. He often talks about double baggers, triple baggers, etc. A simple move above the 200 MA in a bear market would only mean missing a small part of the move. I also have a book by peter lynch. Read em both can't remember the titles.
These guys picked great companies that were sold off in bear markets and rode them through bull markets. Buy low, sell high, seems like a great idea - common sense. But Buffets ignorance toward market timing brushing it off as an impossible task is somewhat shocking.
I heard the majority of trading going on is program trading, simply trading off algorithms. And most likely they are profitable or else they wouldn't be running. |
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