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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 74)
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| mndeg |
| quote: | | Earlier in the day, rival Wachovia Corp. (WB: Wachovia Corp News, chart, profile, more Last: 16.79+3.61+27.39% 4:00pm 07/22/2008 Delayed quote data Add to portfolio Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: WB 16.79, +3.61, +27.4%) swung to a $8.66 billion loss, cut its dividend and said that it will sell assets and layoff thousands of workers. The dismal results stem in part from write-downs for bad investments related to the mortgage and credit crises. See full story. |
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| mndeg |
just in. massive loss for washington mutual (WM)
I bet it goes up. that seems to be the pattern here. LOL
"WaMu Reports Significant Build-Up of Reserves Contributing to Second Quarter Net Loss of $3.3 Billion"
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080722/20080722006359.html?.v=1
Stock is up .91% today right now afterhours.
Now it's up 13%
14%
bizzaro world
| quote: | For the April-to-June period, the Seattle-based bank says it lost $3.33 billion, or $6.58 per share, which compares with a profit of $830 million, or 92 cents per share in the year-ago period. Results include a previously disclosed, one-time reduction of $3.24 per share related to the company's capital raising in April.
Thomson Financial says analysts, on average, were expecting a loss of $1.05 per share. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Swamper
Nice work. Looks like you're a value investor ;)
I'm wondering, with your debt ratio figures, do you factor in the last few years/quarters and whether it's increasing/decreasing or do you just take the ratio most recent year/quarter? |
For debt ratios, I use the most current quarterly results. I then compare those results to a benchmark market, which are the S&P500 for the fundamental strength I, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index for the fundamental strength II. For the intrinsic value calculations, that's where I use data from the past 5 years, and decide whether they are increasing/decreasing, etc. Then I can decide whether I can expect the stock price to increase/decrease, based on past historical data.
| quote: | Originally posted by Moongoose
Krypton if you have time, could you run NVDA trough those algorithms of yours, to see if its worth putting any money into it. |
Great company with a HUGE amount of value.
NVDA - $11.38 - as of 4PM EST today
NVIDIA Corporation (NVIDIA) is engaged in the provision of programmable graphics processor technologies. The Company’s products are designed to generate realistic, interactive graphics on consumer and professional computing devices. It serves the entertainment and consumer market with its GeForce products, the professional design and visualization market with its Quadro products, and the computing market with its Tesla products. It has four product-line segments: the GPU Business, the professional solutions business (PSB), the media and communications processor (MCP), business, and the consumer products business (CPB). Its GPU business consists of its GeForce products that support desktop and notebook personal computers (PCs), plus memory products. Its PSB consists of its NVIDIA Quadro professional workstation products and other professional graphics products, including its NVIDIA Tesla computing products.
INTRINSIC STRENGTH = 82% = B = BUY
GAMMA = 6.84 = EXTREMELY UNDERPRICED
INTRINSIC VALUE = $32.74 = 190% DISCOUNTED BY MARKET
NVDA is a good company. What is so striking is how discounted their stock is by the market. The company and stock are worth, in my estimation close to 200% more than it is right now. I would definitely feel confidant about buying now and holding for several years. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
For debt ratios, I use the most current quarterly results. I then compare those results to a benchmark market, which are the S&P500 for the fundamental strength I, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index for the fundamental strength II. For the intrinsic value calculations, that's where I use data from the past 5 years, and decide whether they are increasing/decreasing, etc. Then I can decide whether I can expect the stock price to increase/decrease, based on past historical data.
Great company with a HUGE amount of value.
NVDA - $11.38 - as of 4PM EST today
NVIDIA Corporation (NVIDIA) is engaged in the provision of programmable graphics processor technologies. The Company’s products are designed to generate realistic, interactive graphics on consumer and professional computing devices. It serves the entertainment and consumer market with its GeForce products, the professional design and visualization market with its Quadro products, and the computing market with its Tesla products. It has four product-line segments: the GPU Business, the professional solutions business (PSB), the media and communications processor (MCP), business, and the consumer products business (CPB). Its GPU business consists of its GeForce products that support desktop and notebook personal computers (PCs), plus memory products. Its PSB consists of its NVIDIA Quadro professional workstation products and other professional graphics products, including its NVIDIA Tesla computing products.
INTRINSIC STRENGTH = 82% = B = BUY
GAMMA = 6.84 = EXTREMELY UNDERPRICED
INTRINSIC VALUE = $32.74 = 190% DISCOUNTED BY MARKET
NVDA is a good company. What is so striking is how discounted their stock is by the market. The company and stock are worth, in my estimation close to 200% more than it is right now. I would definitely feel confidant about buying now and holding for several years. |
Several of the major problems with NVDA as I've understood it is that they're in a fiercely competitive, virtual duopoly business against AMD/ATI, which requires intensive capex and involves very short product cycles. Maybe now that AMD is burying themselves NVDA can gain a foothold, but it's been a huge disappointment since it peaked last year.
That said, they seem to generate free cash flow, have a pretty attractive balance sheet with minimal debt and are thus barely leveraged (a plus in today's environment).
I guess it depends on what side of the coin you look at. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
just in. massive loss for washington mutual (WM)
I bet it goes up. that seems to be the pattern here. LOL
"WaMu Reports Significant Build-Up of Reserves Contributing to Second Quarter Net Loss of $3.3 Billion"
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080722/20080722006359.html?.v=1
Stock is up .91% today right now afterhours.
Now it's up 13%
14%
bizzaro world
???? |
Drives you ing nuts, doesn't it? I think we're in the midst of a government-induced-bear-market-rally-short-squeeze. The question is, does it have legs/staying power? If not, how long does it last? There certainly hasn't been much good news among the regional banks (JPM, WFC, and BAC being the majors have been catalysts to the upside, though BAC swallwed CFC after their quarter end). There were several would-be nukes this morning with regional banks cutting their dividends left and right, BBT's largest shareholder selling 35M shares tonight, Wachovia's horrendous qtr., etc. RF was down 22% early in the day, only to close up ~10% on the day. The BKX index rallied 15% intraday trough-to-peak. This is utter madness, but this is the kind of bull we typically see in bear market rallies. If you ride the momentum up, just be careful. I'm on the sidelines for now. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
Several of the major problems with NVDA as I've understood it is that they're in a fiercely competitive, virtual duopoly business against AMD/ATI, which requires intensive capex and involves very short product cycles. Maybe now that AMD is burying themselves NVDA can gain a foothold, but it's been a huge disappointment since it peaked last year.
That said, they seem to generate free cash flow, have a pretty attractive balance sheet with minimal debt and are thus barely leveraged (a plus in today's environment).
I guess it depends on what side of the coin you look at. |
Technology is one hell of a fast-paced industry to be in. Very hard to predict. But you are right. They have basically ZERO long-term debt. High CAPEX. One thing I really do not like is how they continue diluting their shares outstanding by issuing more stock. That will surely continue to keep their stock price down. But then again, how else would they finance their CAPEX? I guess its better to issue more stock than to take on long-term debt.
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If anyone wants me to analyze some their stock picks, here are the rules.
1. 4 stock picks per person
2. 1 intrinsic value per person
So pick your 4 favorite stocks. And then pick the stock (out of the 4) you believe is worth the most. I can do foreign stocks (outside US), but not mutual funds, ETFs, index funds, etc. Only stocks. |
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| Krypton |
I just got some really awesome news about my "Fundamental Gamma Fund"
| quote: | | For the six month period ending June 30, 2008 your fund outperformed 97.9% of the other funds on our site. Your forum and other privileges are based on this ranking |
My 3 month ranking is 98.8%!! 1 month 85.7%! |
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| mndeg |
nvidia has a price war right now against ATI. just look at the prices of their video cards. Never in my life have they been this functional and powerful at the prices that they are today. For $150 dollars you can buy something that I would consider high end. You can play at 1600x1200 maxed out all settings, or even 1920x1200. For just $150. Before that would cost easily $400+.
| quote: | | Drives you ing nuts, doesn't it? I think we're in the midst of a government-induced-bear-market-rally-short-squeeze. The question is, does it have legs/staying power? If not, how long does it last? There certainly hasn't been much good news among the regional banks (JPM, WFC, and BAC being the majors have been catalysts to the upside, though BAC swallwed CFC after their quarter end). There were several would-be nukes this morning with regional banks cutting their dividends left and right, BBT's largest shareholder selling 35M shares tonight, Wachovia's horrendous qtr., etc. RF was down 22% early in the day, only to close up ~10% on the day. The BKX index rallied 15% intraday trough-to-peak. This is utter madness, but this is the kind of bull we typically see in bear market rallies. If you ride the momentum up, just be careful. I'm on the sidelines for now. |
I wonder how this is all going to end and how soon. |
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| mndeg |
| WM finally turns negative after oil threatens to go back up. Crazy. It's like what it reports doesn't really matter. They could say that they made -zillion dollars and it wouldn't move. |
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| Krypton |
| I think this has been a short covering rally. The shorts are thinking there's little to nowhere else to go but up, and they don't want to have their shorts anymore. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I think this has been a short covering rally. The shorts are thinking there's little to nowhere else to go but up, and they don't want to have their shorts anymore. |
Ya think? It's as if the SEC has all but outlawed shorting. (though they haven't, that seems to be the prevailing mentality). And if nobody can short, why bother selling? That means the only direction stocks can go is up up up! So much bull. You can't short financials and you can't buy oil or else you're just an evil person. |
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