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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 39)
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Fundamental strength is a grade measured on a scale of 0-100. It is measured by comparing measurements in growth rates, price ratios, profit margins, investment returns, management efficiency, and financial condition of a company with its industry and a benchmark market (i.e. S&P500). Above 85 FS is like having a grade A, strong buy. 70 is buy. 60 is hold. 45 is sell, 30 is strong sell. Above 0 is consider short.
You might find this interesting. The page before this (page 37) has all my most recent data. I have an excel spreadsheet which uses my 52 week high formula. It's easy to use and has instructions. PM me your email and I'll send you the file. All you have to do is type in 2 numbers. The 52 week high and the FS. Also, I have a sister formula for MSN Money's ratings for the stocks. So you can have TWO estimates of a target price. Also the spreadsheet averages the two results. Remember the more data you have, the more precise your predictions can be. |
your box is full.
is this your formula? it would be interesting to see the exact inputs to determine the fundamental strength. |
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| Krypton |
DSX up 6.27% today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DSX
PEG = .62 which indicates the stock is cheap relative to the expected growth. I have looked at DSX's shipping rates, fleets, and contracts. Their about 20 ships all have contracts on them for the next few years to come. This gives DSX a steady income stream because each contract is legally binding for their terms. So even though a recession may be upon us, DSX will still have their ships making $50-150K a day guarenteed! |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Private loans for students may be more difficult to obtain
By: Jill Laster
Posted: 3/6/08
Students stressed about paying for college will probably have more to worry about next year if they rely on private loans.
Some private lenders for student loans have begun to either offer fewer loans or drop out of the business completely, said Meredith Robinson of the Kentucky Higher Education Assistance Authority and the Student Loan People.
"Some lenders have already pulled out because they have looked in their crystal ball and have seen they can't afford it," said Robinson, a marketing support manager.
KHEAA and the Student Loan People are state-run sister agencies that guarantee loans for students from private lenders such as banks. The agency has already seen 10 of its 200 lenders drop from the program since August, Robinson said.
"I know 10 seems like a small number, but this looks like just the beginning," Robinson said.
Beginning in late 2006, the housing bubble burst when demand for homes dropped. The poor housing market meant lenders had less money to give out as loans, making them much more selective about giving loans to students.
Because of the poor market, a lender could notify UK that it will not be providing student loans for the next school year as late as the day before school starts, Robinson said. The student would then have to find another lender to cover costs.
UK Student Financial Aid Director Lynda George recommended applying for federally funded loans like Pell Grants or Stafford Loans before going to private companies to get money for college. Federal loans have lower interest rates than private loans, George said, and every student can at least get an unsubsidized loan, where the student has to pay interest.
Federal loans are more stable than private loans and should not be affected by economic woes, said Larry Warder, acting chief operating officer of Federal Student Aid.
"We understand that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the current economic environment," Warder said. "... Thus far, we have not encountered any situation in which an eligible school did not have access to federal student loans."
George estimated that about 95 percent of students apply for federal loans before they apply for private loans. That means that the decrease in available private loans should not add strain to the federal system.
However, state agencies across the country have been reporting they have had problems finding private lenders for student loan debt. Michigan, Mississippi and Montana have either shut down or slimmed down their programs because of lack of available lenders.
"It's been a rollercoaster ride so far," Robinson said.
Another disadvantage of federal loans is that they have pre-set limits, whereas private loans do not. The limits and the continuing rising cost of education made UK student Margaret Bard nervous when she returned to school to get a second degree.
Bard uses federal loans. Her son had to supplement federal loans with loans from private companies, which she said he is still paying back years after graduating.
"Back when I got my other degree, tuition was so low," said Bard, a dietetics senior. "Now, I don't see how students even make it."
In 2006, about 29 percent of students left UK in debt and the average amount they owed was $18,758, according to the Project on Student Debt.
Tuition is increasing each year and UK President Lee Todd has said UK cannot guarantee tuition increases under 10 percent if state government does not fully fund UK's Top 20 Business Plan. Gov. Steve Beshear recommended budget cuts for higher education of 12 percent for the 2008-10 biennium, on top of a 3 percent cut already in place.
Kentucky's budget will be determined by the state legislature in April.
This year, about 7,200 of UK's 27,000 students received an average of $10,833 in federal financial aid, George said. About 1,200 students received an average of $9,900 in private loans.
English junior Rummana Amin is one of about 7,200 UK students to receive federal financial aid. The limited amount of money for federal loans and news of a state budget that may lead to a jump in tuition has Amin worried about whether she can afford school.
"I hope (tuition) doesn't increase too much so I'm not in debt the rest of my life," she said.
The federal government offers both subsidized and unsubsidized Stafford Loans based on financial need determined by the Free Application for Federal Student Aid form, due April 1 for UK students.
With unsubsidized loans, students will amount interest while in school. With subsidized loans, the government pays the interest while the student is in school. For next year, the interest rate will be 6 percent, down from 6.8 percent for the 2007-08 school year. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
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You were right. FMD dropped right back to the 52 week low. I would pick up a small position, but that's it. It's a risk in which if I were to invest in it, I would only use funds I could afford to lose.
I loaded up on DSX, another volatile stock, but a high yielding dividend payer with PLENTY of cash on the balance sheet, AND a safe revenue stream because their ships are contracted for years. I'm going to let this one bounce around, collect the dividends, and wait for the long-term recovery of the market. I'm still very confident in China's boom, and the commodities boom, so I sleep very well at night with DSX, even if I'm down 5%. |
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| Capitalizt |
the main the DSX has going for it is the weak dollar.
Weak dollar = great for US exports
US exports = great for DSX |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
the main the DSX has going for it is the weak dollar.
Weak dollar = great for US exports
US exports = great for DSX |
Great way to diversify away from the dollar. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
You were right. FMD dropped right back to the 52 week low. I would pick up a small position, but that's it. It's a risk in which if I were to invest in it, I would only use funds I could afford to lose.
I loaded up on DSX, another volatile stock, but a high yielding dividend payer with PLENTY of cash on the balance sheet, AND a safe revenue stream because their ships are contracted for years. I'm going to let this one bounce around, collect the dividends, and wait for the long-term recovery of the market. I'm still very confident in China's boom, and the commodities boom, so I sleep very well at night with DSX, even if I'm down 5%. |
I like that secular story. For a long term play, I think the odds are clearly in your favor. I have a very smart contact that's recommended a couple of dry-shipping names lately, though I can't recall the ticker for the one he liked in particular. I view these a lot like energy 7-8 years ago. You could almost call it a fat pitch. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
I like that secular story. For a long term play, I think the odds are clearly in your favor. I have a very smart contact that's recommended a couple of dry-shipping names lately, though I can't recall the ticker for the one he liked in particular. I view these a lot like energy 7-8 years ago. You could almost call it a fat pitch. |
Have you ever been to Brazil? I was in Sao Paulo about 3 years ago playing soccer on the beach. And out about 3/4 of a mile out and farther were cargo ships, bulk ships, and maybe other ships sitting offshore because the port was full. I didn't think much of it then, but now that I think about it, that was the best evidence of the strong demand for shipping that I don't think will taper off any time soon. |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Have you ever been to Brazil? I was in Sao Paulo about 3 years ago playing soccer on the beach. And out about 3/4 of a mile out and farther were cargo ships, bulk ships, and maybe other ships sitting offshore because the port was full. I didn't think much of it then, but now that I think about it, that was the best evidence of the strong demand for shipping that I don't think will taper off any time soon. |
don't fall too in love with your own ideas. you may think that these shipping companies are great. but you may not consider things you can't openly discover. A great company on paper one year doesn't always translate into a great company in real life and in the future. There are ways to hide flaw in the balance sheet. Furthermore, a good company can make bad decisions that quickly deteriorate the financials. A bad acquisition in year 2, increased future costs of capital (because of external factors), litigation, or increased fuel costs are all things that could harm a shipping company.
I remember you saying that contracts were already signed for years out. That's great, but what if the other party breaches the contract and is insolvent? Also, since they are locked into contracts i assume prices are fixed, fuel costs can increase eating into profits. there are so many variables that you don't know about so be careful about keeping a strong allegiance to a particular stock. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
don't fall too in love with your own ideas. you may think that these shipping companies are great. but you may not consider things you can't openly discover. A great company on paper one year doesn't always translate into a great company in real life and in the future. There are ways to hide flaw in the balance sheet. Furthermore, a good company can make bad decisions that quickly deteriorate the financials. A bad acquisition in year 2, increased future costs of capital (because of external factors), litigation, or increased fuel costs are all things that could harm a shipping company.
I remember you saying that contracts were already signed for years out. That's great, but what if the other party breaches the contract and is insolvent? Also, since they are locked into contracts i assume prices are fixed, fuel costs can increase eating into profits. there are so many variables that you don't know about so be careful about keeping a strong allegiance to a particular stock. |
Those are just risks that investors account for when they make their decision to pull the trigger. For some, the risks will outweigh the perceived reward. Could something bad happen? Of course. Will something bad happen? Nobody knows for sure. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
don't fall too in love with your own ideas. you may think that these shipping companies are great. but you may not consider things you can't openly discover. A great company on paper one year doesn't always translate into a great company in real life and in the future. There are ways to hide flaw in the balance sheet. Furthermore, a good company can make bad decisions that quickly deteriorate the financials. A bad acquisition in year 2, increased future costs of capital (because of external factors), litigation, or increased fuel costs are all things that could harm a shipping company.
I remember you saying that contracts were already signed for years out. That's great, but what if the other party breaches the contract and is insolvent? Also, since they are locked into contracts i assume prices are fixed, fuel costs can increase eating into profits. there are so many variables that you don't know about so be careful about keeping a strong allegiance to a particular stock. |
That's called "risk", and every company has it. My goal is to minimize risk. I do that by examining the financial statements of the company. If the company is hiding something on their books, then they should be prosecuted for accounting fraud. Now, assuming my company is not engaged in accounting fraud, financial statements are the best indication of a company's cash flow.
As for the contracts. They are fixed rates. Now that necessarily is not a bad thing. In today's economy, having such a steady revenue stream is harder to come by. Additionally, if the contracting party decides they do not want to honor the contract, then they should expect to be taken to court. Fuel costs are a concern obviously, but at a minimum day rate of $50,000 for the lowest contracts, even with fuel costs, the cost of maintaining each ship is still less than $10,000 a day.
You are correct in your concern about risk, but in anything you buy, from food, to clothes, to stocks, to homes, you take the risk that the product will not meet your expectations. Therefore, don't let risk paralyze your ability to invest. A set risk management strategy should calm your fears of losing your investment because of speculation or unforseen catastrophic events. |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
That's called "risk", and every company has it. My goal is to minimize risk. I do that by examining the financial statements of the company. If the company is hiding something on their books, then they should be prosecuted for accounting fraud. Now, assuming my company is not engaged in accounting fraud, financial statements are the best indication of a company's cash flow.
As for the contracts. They are fixed rates. Now that necessarily is not a bad thing. In today's economy, having such a steady revenue stream is harder to come by. Additionally, if the contracting party decides they do not want to honor the contract, then they should expect to be taken to court. Fuel costs are a concern obviously, but at a minimum day rate of $50,000 for the lowest contracts, even with fuel costs, the cost of maintaining each ship is still less than $10,000 a day.
You are correct in your concern about risk, but in anything you buy, from food, to clothes, to stocks, to homes, you take the risk that the product will not meet your expectations. Therefore, don't let risk paralyze your ability to invest. A set risk management strategy should calm your fears of losing your investment because of speculation or unforseen catastrophic events. |
you are absolutely correct, there is no disputing that. i actually contributed to the financials for a few public companies and you wouldn't believe how some companies treat items on the balance sheet and P/L. Sometimes they play tricks and hope the auditors don't catch it.
Accounting rules, which admittedly i don't fully understand, are so complicated and many are not intuitive. Look at the off balance sheet items, that investors had no idea about last year, that are now all being placed on the balance sheets of the investment banks which are causing huge liquidity problems and losses on the P/L. There was no way an investor could know the exact risk with that stuff because it's only now they are being place on the B/S because the banks are acting as backstops, and weren't required by the accounting rules to account for those items.
i only said that because it seems like you really love shipping stocks and loving an industry/companty too much is sometimes a bad thing. many times people don't realize this until it's too late. Many people get burned because they hold on too long because they really love one stock or one industry. All i was suggesting is that you don't do that because to me it sounds like you just love shipping. |
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