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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 54)
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| Krypton |
Capitalizt, it appears I have overtaken you for first place...;)
Fundamental Strength Fund @ $13.47
You thought you could run from me huh???:D
Soon my funds will no longer have strength in them. Strength will turn into "gamma" because of a new formula which now forms the basis of my portfolio allocation. |
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| Capitalizt |
| Don't let it go to your head krypt. ;) You've made some lucky calls on sectors recently but time will tell if your system is reliable over the long term. Oh and 75% invested in energy? zomg I see why you're winning. I heard the other day that Goldman Sachs predicted oil will hit $200 before pulling back. There is just no end in sight to the rally due to huge foreign demand. Your portfolio should be worth about $25 this time next year, lol Unfortunately the rest of the economy will tank, but at least you'll be rich ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Don't let it go to your head krypt. ;) You've made some lucky calls on sectors recently but time will tell if your system is reliable over the long term. Oh and 75% invested in energy? zomg I see why you're winning. I heard the other day that Goldman Sachs predicted oil will hit $200 before pulling back. There is just no end in sight to the rally due to huge foreign demand. Your portfolio should be worth about $25 this time next year, lol Unfortunately the rest of the economy will tank, but at least you'll be rich ;) |
Think of it this way. I've been panning for gold in a river. All I do is keep the gold and throw out the rocks. Energy is 70-75% of my gold. If the numbers tell me so I will go heavy into one sector. But most of my gains aren't from energy. They are from the dry bulk shipping...;) But with the high energy prices, expect the oil companies to continue making record profits. As long as that's happening, I don't mind going in 70% energy sector.
I read in the Wall Street Journal there are rumors of an oil bubble in works. It's just a rumor, but comparing the tech bubble and housing bubble to an oil price chart produces a pretty convincing case for an oil bubble. But the reality is no one 100% knows there is a bubble until it bursts. I don't think this theoretical oil bubble is going to burst any time this quarter (6 weeks). |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I'm just asking because I appreciate when my advice brings success to people...;-)
Keep in mind the margins for drybulk shipper are huge. They charge upwards of $100k a day per ship. The ships only cost maybe $10k to operate. That right there is a 90% margin. It's also recession proof because trade is still kicking even in times of recession. I am not saying this is a perfect sector becase not sector is perfect. But the fundamentals are very much in line with the huge gains they've been making. |
What do you make of the NM downgrade and how compared with EXM, DSX, and DRYS, it's lagging at only 30% up from my average price? I did get it before if fell into the 9.xx range, but would you swap out for one of the others? |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
What do you make of the NM downgrade and how compared with EXM, DSX, and DRYS, it's lagging at only 30% up from my average price? I did get it before if fell into the 9.xx range, but would you swap out for one of the others? |
I would keep NM. I would also buy EXM, DSX, and DRYS. I'de buy all 4 of them. Why? Fundamentals. I mean DAMN...3300% profit growth in one year for NM! All price ratios are below industry averages. NM is CHEAP. Below average debt. 51% return on equity! $1 million in profit PER EMPLOYEE. These numbers are ridiculous! Why would you want to sell? |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I would keep NM. I would also buy EXM, DSX, and DRYS. I'de buy all 4 of them. Why? Fundamentals. I mean DAMN...3300% profit growth in one year for NM! All price ratios are below industry averages. NM is CHEAP. Below average debt. 51% return on equity! $1 million in profit PER EMPLOYEE. These numbers are ridiculous! Why would you want to sell? |
Because I only have so much money. If I had $25K laying around, I could afford to take all 4, but I don't, so I've got to pick one, maybe 2. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
Because I only have so much money. If I had $25K laying around, I could afford to take all 4, but I don't, so I've got to pick one, maybe 2. |
My premier pair are DRYS and EXM. FRO and TRMD are another pair of drybulk shippers worth looking at.
If you're going to spend money on a stock, you might find it useful to know how much the stock is inherently worth before putting your money in it. Stocks are like cars, you never want to buy before not knowing its true value. I can value stocks using a pretty in depth algorithm which basically appraises stock value based on the performance of the underlying company over the past 5 years. If you would like to know what I would value a stock, let me know...;)
Example: Microsoft and Yahoo have been tangling over a buyout deal. MSFT wants to pay $33 per share, YHOO wants to get $37 per share. My algorithm values the company YHOO at $34.70 if they were bought out today. So, in my opinion, YHOO's asking price is much too high. But also MSFT's bid price is just a tad bit low. Fortunately, billionaire investor Carl Icahn just bought a huge stake in YHOO to force them to make a deal with MSFT. So, if I were a Yahoo exec, I'de be happy to sign a $35 per share buyout deal.
For an investor, knowing value is one of the best things you can know, especially when analyzing buyout deals, or just thinking about buying stock. |
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| Krypton |
May 16, 2008 funds report for Nathan Ramos (tranc3)
FSF
* Name: Fundamental Strength Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $13.48
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 7.29%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 16.78%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 4.44%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 7.61%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 2.91%): YES
ISF
* Name: Intrinsic Strength Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $12.57
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 8.54%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 20.02%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 4.44%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 7.61%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 2.91%): YES
SIF
* Name: Steel & Iron Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $11.29
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 7.69%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 12.23%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 4.44%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 7.61%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 2.91%): YES
DSF
* Name: Drybulk Shipping Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $11.85
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 7.95%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 17.03%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 4.44%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 7.61%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 2.91%): YES
EPSF
* Name: Energy Products & Services Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $10.70
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 3.96%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES
ACF
* Name: Agricultural Chemicals Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $10.42
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 3.02%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of 2.67%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 3.41%): NO
o Dow Jones (return of 1.89%): YES |
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| Shakka |
| Just got my copy of David Einhorn's Fooling Some of the People All of the Time. Recommended reading for any current or future investors. |
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| atbell |
Good idea setting up SIF, it's not good for short terms plays though cause I think it's just going up. This is great news for long term.
Despite oil stocks the iron ore compaines are doing the best. Partly because there are only 3 in the world worth noting, Rio Tinto, CVRD, and BHP Bilton. I added in MT which is a steel producer (makes iron ore into steel) and I'm thinking of adding Tata motors because they own the steel supply through Tata Steel. Of course the problem there might be that the base input (iron ore) is what is going up not so much the steel price. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
Good idea setting up SIF, it's not good for short terms plays though cause I think it's just going up. This is great news for long term.
Despite oil stocks the iron ore compaines are doing the best. Partly because there are only 3 in the world worth noting, Rio Tinto, CVRD, and BHP Bilton. I added in MT which is a steel producer (makes iron ore into steel) and I'm thinking of adding Tata motors because they own the steel supply through Tata Steel. Of course the problem there might be that the base input (iron ore) is what is going up not so much the steel price. |
Nice...Looks like your hopped on the commodities boom train...So am I...;) |
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| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Nice...Looks like your hopped on the commodities boom train...So am I...;) |
On it since '02.
I worked in the industry for 3 years.
This is why I don't think it's a bubble, like some have speculated. It's based mostly on demand, more so then oil.
While on the topic of bubble hunting, alternative energy is one I'm concerned about. Although the economist did speculate that the auto industry is a bubble that is popping after a very slow build. |
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