|
TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 76)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| mndeg |
agriculture has REAL demand unlike financials. same with oil. in fact right now in the world the total production is lower than total consumption.
POT will be a good buy soon. not yet though.
tomorrow is a pivotal day in terms of technicals. oil should bounce, financials should be down.
"Wells Fargo actually changed the definition of ‘default’ from 120 days to 180 days to push out defaults further and hides losses."
and STILL reported terrible earnings. |
|
|
| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
POT will be a good buy soon. not yet though.
|
Pot is always a good buy.  |
|
|
| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
So who thinks that the Ag, Energy, and Steel sectors topped out?
I'm still holding MTL (2nd worst drop in the sector behind AK Steel because of Russian govt. intervention) and 2 of the big ag names and I feel violated lately.
Any thoughts on taking a loss on one of the Ags and picking up CHK down where it is? Aubrey bought more last Friday and it's down almost $8 since. Historically, this doesn't usually happen on his big buys.
As an aside, I'm fairly pissed about the US govt. intervention with the financials. Just great that FRE has tripled in less than 10 trading days and FNM has more than doubled. Everyone sucked their money out of the sectors that have been providing returns and dumped them into the holes that helped cause this whole mess. True reward for good behavior. Doesn't help that I'm kicking myself since I was close to picking up BAC or C down where they were a few weeks ago when I dumped more into my account. Not now... |
I made almost 200% on my MTL, before selling. Too bad it was one of my smallest holdings...:(
I generally believe the commodities sector has topped out for now. That includes precious metals, agriculture, energy. But only for the near term.
POT, or pot, I like em both!:p |
|
|
| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I made almost 200% on my MTL, before selling. Too bad it was one of my smallest holdings...:(
I generally believe the commodities sector has topped out for now. That includes precious metals, agriculture, energy. But only for the near term.
POT, or pot, I like em both!:p |
I made money playing MTL between 50-55 for the couple of bounces where it did that. Then I bought in at $50 again and it's never returned.
I have MOS and it sunk 10% today alone. I've been steering a lot of expendables into the market lately, so I can only add on every 2-4 weeks, max $1K when OT is high. I'd like to add now, but I had to diversify more an picked up SGP on the big drop the other day from the SEAS conference data that put an, imo, unnecessary emphasis on this the statistically insignificant cancer numbers that came out of nowhere. I should have dumped it after getting at $19 in the morning and it hit $21.5 before that mention in the report. Up over 10% in hours, I should have known better (I was even on the phone with my g/f entertaining the idea when the news announced, then it plummeted and my webfeed of the conference wasn't working, so I didn't know what happened to cause the drop). I could have bought back an hour later at the morning price and taken the 2.25/share rise.
POT isn't one of my 2, but if their earnings suck tomorrow, I'm ed. I'm hoping that today's kick in the balls can only mean a flatline tomorrow with bad news and and upward rocket of 10+% on good news. Today killed Monday's gains and more.
I will add that the ags and steel volatility is enough to make one want to puke on one day and buy bottles of champagne on another. The problem is when they break through a few resistance points even if you believe they're valued higher.
So thoughts on CHK down here?... |
|
|
| Krypton |
Based on a study of charts, this is my conclusion on my Gamma Quant roundup..
Right time to buy for...
AUO
CRDN
ESEA
GLW
TKC
Wait for bottom support level to be established...
APA
CVX
E
HIMX
TNH
XOM
All of these except HIMX and TNH are oil/energy companies. TNH is an agricultural chemicals company. So they are mostly commodities, and as we know, commodities is falling. But I say way for them to fall, reach a level of chart support, then go in and buy, and hold. HIMX is a semiconductor/technology company, so if you want a play in technology, this company has great fundamentals and is underpriced by the market. Just wait for it to bottom out. |
|
|
| Krypton |
I'm setting up a new fund based on a book I just read called, "The Warren Buffet Portfolio". In it, is advocates an extremely focused value approach to investment. Only 3-15 stocks, and each stock should be extremely well-researched, and bought at under priced values. My new fund will consist of just 3 stocks.
I have a question some of you experts might be able to answer. How should I diversify my 3 stocks. By sector or by industry.
I have 3 picks...
AUO
GLW
TKC
All are in the technology sector, but each are in different industries. So I am diversified industry-wise, but not sector-wise. Should I be diversified by sector? |
|
|
| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
AUO
GLW
|
These two are too LCD based from what i know, thus not different enough.
GLW would be my pick of the two. |
|
|
| Krypton |
| I like them both so much, I can't let go of either one. So instead of choosing one or the other, I am going to add another stock from another industry. In fact, before I buy anything, I have got about 138 stocks to look at. Once I whittle them down to the very best, then I'll start my focus portfolio. |
|
|
| Moongoose |
OK Capitalizt explain how you did that, and more importantly can you do it again, and if you can, can i put some real money down on that. I just might scrounge up a few extra grand if i could expect that kind of a return :D
 |
|
|
| Capitalizt |
ho ho ho! Damn I'm good ;)
Krypton just PMed me asking the same thing. It was actually a temporary mistake on the stock exchange. I didn't mean to do it.
I bought DOY (an oil short) a few days ago at $20, and after noticing it close near $21, I placed a sell order before the market opened to lock in profits. Due to some freak of nature, the stock opened around $121,000 per share, instead of $21 per share. My fund was sitting at $14.10 that morning. I only owned a few thousand shares...less than 3% of my fund, but they sold at this price during the first minute of trading, and it was enough to knock my fund up to $200.
The price mistake was corrected quickly and I imagine the person in charge of matching trades that morning was fired on the spot. He probably cost the market maker a few million bucks. But the damage was done in my Marketocracy account. The shares opened and executed at that price. Too bad it wasn't real money. |
|
|
| mndeg |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
agriculture has REAL demand unlike financials. same with oil. in fact right now in the world the total production is lower than total consumption.
POT will be a good buy soon. not yet though.
tomorrow is a pivotal day in terms of technicals. oil should bounce, financials should be down.
"Wells Fargo actually changed the definition of ‘default’ from 120 days to 180 days to push out defaults further and hides losses."
and STILL reported terrible earnings. |
oh wow. today with a poor housing number. it's so weird that fundamental timing occurs the same time as technical timing.
WM tanking again today, interesting. the people who shorted that are ballsy considering WFC reported terrible earnings and gained 30% in two days. also WM was UP afterhours after reporting earnings.
is anyone waiting for a bounce on natural gas? it's extremely beat down. ticker symbol UNG
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4XKXwxUR5nA&refer=home
UYG (financials index) down 7.1% so far |
|
|
| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
oh wow. today with a poor housing number. it's so weird that fundamental timing occurs the same time as technical timing. |
I can't tell you how many times I've thought the same thing!
I just got off the phone with Herb Greenberg. Neato! |
|
|
|
|
