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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 93)
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
NVDA up 12% today. 20% capital gain in just 2 days for me.
I called HANS in June at $35. It fell to the low 20's but bounced back with a vengeance from its low. If I were playing this, I would have waited for a support level and/or averaging this one down, then riding it on its way back up... |
HANS is basically up because Neslon Peltz disclosed a large stake today. Energy drinks are still a fad IMO. There's been a lot more downside than upside in HANS. Value investing often misses things like this without careful fundamental thought--just look at CROX or HLYS. If you're a quick trader you can certainly make good money, however you seem like a long-term buy and hold guy Krypt, so I'd just be careful. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
HANS is basically up because Neslon Peltz disclosed a large stake today. Energy drinks are still a fad IMO. There's been a lot more downside than upside in HANS. Value investing often misses things like this without careful fundamental thought--just look at CROX or HLYS. If you're a quick trader you can certainly make good money, however you seem like a long-term buy and hold guy Krypt, so I'd just be careful. |
When the fundamentals or valuations erode, I sell. I'm not putting real money in HANS. My real money stocks remain TNH, TKC, GLW. I also like AUO, but AUO and GLW are too similar. |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
While there would be some price increases under gold, they would be much more closely tied to population growth than anything else. The natural course of things in the developed world is for the price of goods and services to go DOWN as productivity increases year after year. |
that's not true when the good or service is derived from a scarce resource, which is true for most goods and services, especially energy sources (which we all know is a major component of prices). Since energy sources and other scarce commodities are price inputs, when the population increases prices will increase despite productivity advances.
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
We should be paying record low prices for housing, automobiles, etc since these things take much less effort to produce than they did a few generations ago...but we aren't. Despite the recent correction prices are still near all time highs and it is largely due to monetary inflation. The amount of paper money across the globe has grown much faster than world population or GDP growth, so naturally the value of that money has gone down. This would be ok if wage increases kept up with the devaluation but they haven't. Just today in the US, news on CPI and wages were released that showed prices were up something like .8% and wages up .2%
Inflation > wages = lower standard of living. |
housing prices will never fall because of productivity for several reason, (i) housing stock is mainly composes of existing homes, and (ii) a major component of housing cost is the value of the real estate, and people can't just easily create new real estate.
Wages can't keep up with CPI when there is a sharp increase in energy prices over a short period as there is now. It takes a longer period for employees to demand higher salaries. When inflation softens then wages will increase to match the increase in inflation so that over a longer period there was either a net gain in wages or at least no net loss in wages. |
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| Shakka |
Latest commentary from David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch (he's been bearish, but more importantly, has been right). Time will tell whether he continues to be correct or not.
| quote: | We aren't past the halfway point of this recession
My sense is that we probably aren't even past the halfway point yet of this recession, the credit losses or the house price deflation. Looking at whether equities may have bottomed or not on an intermediate basis, maybe the recent action to the negative side was an important inflection. In terms of what I do, which is trying to tie the macro into the markets, I have a very tough time believing that we have reached anything close to a fundamental low, either in the S&P 500 or in the long-bond yield, for that matter.
300-point rallies in the Dow happen in bear markets
We're in a very confusing atmosphere. People didn't really know what to make of a 300-point rally in the Dow the other day, but my main message was that 300-point rallies from the Dow don't happen in bull markets. In fact, they never happened in the bull market from October '02 to October '07, but it has happened 6 times in this bear market and happened 12 times in the last bear market. You don't get moves like that in bull markets. As Rich Bernstein has said time and again, "This is the hallmark of a recession and a hallmark of a bear market."
How can there be recession with GDP still positive?
We are at a crossroad in the economy. The 2Q GDP numbers recently came in at plus 1.9%. The details of the number left a little to be desired, but it was still a positive number. Turn on CNBC, and everybody says, "How can there possibly be a recession with GDP positive?"
Employment has been down seven months in a row
The very next day we got nonfarm payrolls. It prints down 51,000 and frankly, it doesn't matter whether it was below or above Wall Street expectations. The bottom line is that employment is down seven months in a row. In 60 years of sifting through the data here, that's never happened before without the economy being in a classic recession.
GDP is useful but it has its limitations
I think the point that has to be made as an economist talking to a group of portfolio managers or FAs or investors, it is important to convey to clients that there is a lot of noise out there. GDP is useful, but it has its limitations. First, GDP is going to get revised. We thought we had a plus 0.6 in the fourth quarter; all of a sudden, it's minus 0.2. Twenty percent of GDP is government. So, you really can't fully concentrate on GDP when a fifth of it is state, local and federal government, unless you're trading defense stocks.
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| Krypton |
| GKK, down 8% yesterday, up 6% today. A lot of volatility with this one. Couple this with NVDA's 6% rise today, and my speculation fund is up 6% today. My speculation fund combines hugely under valued stocks with average fundamentals, and maximum allocation. MY speculation fund has only two positions, which are NVDA, and GKK, and they take 90% of the portfolio. The goal of this portfolio is to acquire the maximum possible gains I can possibly try to get, hence, I speculate, though my speculation is based on quantitative analysis, not just gut feelings. |
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| Moongoose |
| How do you feel about VMW? It dropped quite a bit in the last two monts. I put a small portion of my MMF fund into it hoping that it could regain some of its former glory and not plummet and further. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Moongoose
How do you feel about VMW? It dropped quite a bit in the last two monts. I put a small portion of my MMF fund into it hoping that it could regain some of its former glory and not plummet and further. |
I've got a HOLD rating, but the stock is in my top 5 most under priced stocks I have analyzed, which says a lot, because I've looked through about 1000 stocks in the last 3-4 months. I believe it's fundamentals are trading at a huge bargain, and my current estimates value the stock at more than $100. But it has a very short history. My valuations rely on data going back all the way to 2003 (Past 5 years). VMW went public only 1 year ago, and financial statements go back only to 2005. The margin of safety I put on it is 200%+. Now I consider this a less accurate calculate based on incomplete historical data, but because the margin of safety is so gigantic, I think that offsets the risks associated with such a young company. Don't make it your dominant position in your portfolio, but I see no problem with a minority position of VMW.
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Take your profits on NVDA krypt. I keep up with technology prices and there is a major war going on in the video card market. Prices have been plummeting on all Nvidia cards. I saw an 8800GT-overclocked edition on sale for $110 with no rebates a few days ago...70% below where it was last year. It is quite easy to find a high end video card for $120-130 these days, and these cards are powerful enough to last any gamer a good 3-4 years before upgrading. I doubt Nvidia will be able to keep sales growth on a good pace into 2009. The growth estimates seem wildly optimistic to me. |
Nvidia has a much broader product line than video cards. I can't sell a company whose got no debt, is worth 180% more than its current value, with great products, great sales and profit growth the last 5 years, etc., etc. I look at Nvidia as if I am buying the actual business. I can't just sell it because of short-term market effects. 1-3 years, I'm betting NVDA will be much higher than when i bought it at $11. |
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| mndeg |
I'm waiting for retailers and real estate to collapse. Screw financials. Btw what happened to the SEC no naked short rule?
I have a 8800 GT, runs 1920x1200 pretty well. Can't really complain. Video card value destroys consoles right now |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Nvidia has a much broader product line than video cards. I can't sell a company whose got no debt, is worth 180% more than its current value, with great products, great sales and profit growth the last 5 years, etc., etc. I look at Nvidia as if I am buying the actual business. I can't just sell it because of short-term market effects. 1-3 years, I'm betting NVDA will be much higher than when i bought it at $11. |
Don't you at least use a stop-loss point? |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Moongoose
How do you feel about VMW? It dropped quite a bit in the last two monts. I put a small portion of my MMF fund into it hoping that it could regain some of its former glory and not plummet and further. |
This looks like a good call today, though I don't really know why it's up so much. I think Stifel Nicolaus might be pimping it today. |
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| Kapedano |
| What are the predictions with Oil? How much is it expected to go down? |
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