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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 59)
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| mndeg |
| quote: | | An unimpeded anti-business, anti market agenda with Obama = bad for stocks. |
is this based on anything he said? I've only heard Hillary talk about exxon mobil's windfall profits. never heard anything anti-big business from Obama. If you look at Obama's voting history it's not anti-big business at all. It IS anti-corruption. |
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| Capitalizt |
How are Obama's policies going to hurt the economy? Well it's fairly simple, and it all boils down to supply and demand. There is a universal law of economics that says when something costs more, demand will go down. When you tax something, you get less of it. More taxes and regulations increase the COST of doing business. They increase the risk of investment, so consequently you get less of those things. Obama has said he intends to increase the capital gains tax rate significantly (100%+)..and given that investment capital is the building block of all new businesses, this can't be good for job creation..
And your point about government spending... The problem with taxing and spending is that the government rarely uses the people's money as productively as they would had they been allowed to keep it. Obviously certain things like roads/courts/defense are not profitable ventures, and the government needs to take care of them. I agree with you that government spending is very beneficial in those areas..but for virtually everything else in the economy, there is a net loss of wealth when the government gets involved. Even if you ignore the fact that a huge chunk of tax money is lost in the bureaucracy before it is spent on it's desired purpose, the problem with government spending is that it lacks the feedback mechanism that the private sector has...profit and loss.
There are no real consequences for foolish government spending. There are no penalties for stupid behavior. If a private company makes horrible investments and loses money, they go bankrupt and are finished. If the government wastes money, they simply print more or tax more to make up for it. They have no real incentive to be careful or efficient with their dollars the way you do, your family does, or the way every private business does. For that reason, I say when in doubt it is always better to trust the judgement of individuals. Leave the power in their hands instead of ceding it to the feds.
The democrats and other lefties around the world don't seem to realize that you can't create prosperity on a wave of government spending, because the government itself doesn't create wealth. I repeat: THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT CREATE WEALTH! It only lives off that wealth which has already been created by the private sector...and the larger government grows, the more it smothers the productive part of the economy.
Socialism is strangling the goose that laid the golden egg. |
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| mndeg |
| quote: | http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...lenews_barrons
"WELCOME TO OBAMA-NOMICS 101. If you're wondering how the young candidate would impact Wall Street if he wins the presidential marathon in November, here's the bottom line: He would hike most rates on dividends and capital gains from their current top of 15% to between 24% and 25% in order to generate new revenue and pay for middle-class tax simplification. So says Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago professor who advises Obama on economic matters.
"That's less than the 28% rate under Ronald Reagan, and more than the 20% rate under Bill Clinton," Goolsbee told us last week. And raging bull markets occurred during both their presidencies."
"TO INSURE AGAINST A NEGATIVE impact on innovation and new business formation, Obama would have a zero rate on capital gains for entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and small-business owners forming new enterprises."
Hmmm. I wonder how this would play out.
"As for ordinary income, Obama would allow the top marginal rates to return to the Clinton era's 39.6% versus 35% today. Obama would also eliminate all tax shelters and loopholes, Goolsbee says.
For moderate wage earners who take the standard deductions, tax filing would be simplified. The Internal Revenue Service would figure out their taxes for them and send them a one-page form to sign, reducing preparation costs."
"Goolsbee's written extensively on the effects tax rates have on the behavior of the wealthy. He believes that the negative effects of raising taxes on the very rich have been exaggerated." |
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| Capitalizt |
I was mistaken..I thought Obama wanted the capital gains tax rate increased to the top income tax rate of 35% or so..
Still...a 10% increase in the top tax rate (that every small business pays) plus a 60% hike in the capital gains tax rate..
Pretty bad...pretty bad. |
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| Krypton |
From May 7, 2008...
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
The Microsoft-Yahoo deal just fell thru' because they could not agree on the price....
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9935209-7.html
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I did my own analysis on what I thought Yahoo was worth as a company. I came to the conclusion that YHOO was worth in the range $34 - $35. So in my opinion...YHOO's asking price was too expensive...and MSFT's bid was too low. Both company failed at the deal, and both should take the blame... |
Well...
My analysis of YHOO with my algorithm model just got a affirmed by billionaire investor Carl Icahn. He wants YHOO to sell for approximately what I want it to sell for. WOOHOO, my model works!!
More on YHOO...
FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTH = 64%
GRADE = C
RATING = HOLD
INTRINSIC VALUE = $24.38
TAKE-OVER VALUE = $35.32
CARL ICAHN'S VALUATION OF YHOO: $35.36
My estimated take-over value of $35.32 per share, when multiplied by Yahoo's 1.4 billion shares outstanding equals $49,446,823,878.00 or $49.4 billion. Carl Icahn has initiated an activist shareholder campaign to get YHOO to accept a deal with Microsoft for $49.5 billion. My estimations are clearly in line with Carl Icahn's estimation of YHOO's takeover value. This further solidifies the usefulness of my algorithm model as a calculator of financial quality and valuation of any publicly traded US company.
For more information on Icahn's YHOO valuation... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606..._te/yahoo_icahn |
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| jonSun |
| I did pretty good today with USO. I have 200 shares & it went up a little over $4 a share yesterday & $8 a share today. A total of $2400 in 2 days time. :) |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by jonSun
I did pretty good today with USO. I have 200 shares & it went up a little over $4 a share yesterday & $8 a share today. A total of $2400 in 2 days time. :) |
I went ultrashort oil again today with DUG. :wtf:
I'm probably crazy, but this is just a short term bet... The spike up was just insane.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...how/3108567.cms |
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| Krypton |
June 06, 2008 funds report for (tranc3)krypton
FGF
* Name: Fundamental Gamma Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $13.14
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: -0.74%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 5.48%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
IGF
* Name: Intrinsic Gamma Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $11.64
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: -1.61%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 2.83%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
SIF
* Name: Steel & Iron Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $11.21
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 0.56%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 8.81%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
DSF
* Name: Drybulk Shipping Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $11.00
* Compliant: No
* This past week
+ Return: -2.60%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): NO
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: -0.07%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): NO
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
EPSF
* Name: Energy Products & Services Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $10.57
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: -0.76%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 3.59%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
ACF
* Name: Agricultural Chemicals Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $10.60
* Compliant: No
* This past week
+ Return: 3.13%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 6.05%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES
IDOWF
* Name: Intrinsic Dow 10 Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $9.65
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: -2.00%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.83%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.91%): NO
o Dow Jones (return of -3.39%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: -2.29%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -2.29%): NO
o NASDAQ (return of 1.48%): NO
o Dow Jones (return of -4.72%): YES |
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| Krypton |
Just wanted to let you guys know that me and few other investing enthusiasts just started a new investment forum called PROFOUND INVESTOR @ www.profoundinvestor.com
Check it out and join us! It's just like this thread, but instead of just a couple people who know in depth investing, there are about a dozen gurus on there, so far...and I'm one of them!
Check out the screen names "FundamentalGamma" and "Corey". We are the quant algorithms guys. He's got his own quant model and I have mine, both are secret, but we share ideas. |
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| Kinezi |
Oil is turning out to be a holy grail.. not many retail investors have access to it, neither many retailers bother invest in oil.. and oil has been on a predictible and most vocal publicised uptrend since years... just buy oil anytime, double check that taxi drivers/housewives in japan have not started investing in oil.. do not over leverage.. preferable buy at technical junctures... and you will make money.. holy grail. |
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| Kinezi |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Just wanted to let you guys know that me and few other investing enthusiasts just started a new investment forum called PROFOUND INVESTOR @ www.profoundinvestor.com
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You need to include commodity and forex section. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Kinezi
Oil is turning out to be a holy grail.. not many retail investors have access to it, neither many retailers bother invest in oil.. and oil has been on a predictible and most vocal publicised uptrend since years... just buy oil anytime, double check that taxi drivers/housewives in japan have not started investing in oil.. do not over leverage.. preferable buy at technical junctures... and you will make money.. holy grail. |
This is precisely the kind of commentary you look for near and around market tops. The question is, will it be different this time? Dangerous last words. |
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