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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 139)
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| gallantrybot |
It looks like I would have won with one single stock pick. lmao |
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| Capitalizt |
| Welcome back trancer ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Yeah I realize it will be a real storm if they collapsed krypt, believe me..but that's the price we must pay for our stupidity. Decades of excess can't be unwound without any pain.. We're going to have to take our medicine one day...and I'd just prefer to get it of the way now. Accept the pain and pick up the pieces when the dust clears..rather than propping up a crumbling edifice with endless amounts of debt. |
LOL, get it out of the way. With a 10 year depression. Smart;)
| quote: | | We are already more than $11 trillion in the hole and according to CBO estimates the debt will increase another $9 trillion over the next decade (this of course assumes the fed will be paid back every penny of the trillions it has lent out). This means we hit $20 trillion+ just as the majority of baby boomers retire and start draining the coffers of the treasury even further.. Something's gotta give. The government can't save everyone and everything today. We need to reign in our belt and start practicing a little fiscal sanity unless we want to be paying seniors with notes worth less than toilet paper. |
That's your thesis? We'r on our way to hyper-inflation. That would be a wrong assumption. And the Fed returns all profits to the Treasury. Can't believe we'r back on that one again. |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by gallantrybot
It looks like I would have won with one single stock pick. lmao |
Unless you made that pick a few weeks ago when it was $115, before it dropped to $75. These leveraged short ETFs are murder if you don't time them correctly. Just look at SKF or SRS. SKF was over $250 when Citi was at $1. Now it's $100 a few weeks later.
And believe me, I know, I've traded SRS a few times and lost more than once. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
LOL, get it out of the way. With a 10 year depression. Smart;)
That's your thesis? We'r on our way to hyper-inflation. That would be a wrong assumption. And the Fed returns all profits to the Treasury. Can't believe we'r back on that one again. |
Nah, I think the depression would be closer to 2-3 years max if we allowed nature to take it's course..very sharp and painful..but not doomsday. And no we aren't headed for hyper inflation (ala zimbabwae) but 10% annually is very feasible. And krypt, I know the fed returns profits to the treasury.. Problem is they share their losses too..lol |
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| gallantrybot |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
Unless you made that pick a few weeks ago when it was $115, before it dropped to $75. These leveraged short ETFs are murder if you don't time them correctly. Just look at SKF or SRS. SKF was over $250 when Citi was at $1. Now it's $100 a few weeks later.
And believe me, I know, I've traded SRS a few times and lost more than once. |
Or I could have bought and sold and then bought back in when it dipped.
Anyhow, you saw when I picked it and it definitely wasn't a few weeks ago. lol - it was when I was calling for the beginning of this recession/depression while you all were still trying to make your little value plays.
BTW - right now I'm bullish on Yamana Gold (AUY)
Let's see where that goes in the next six to eight months ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Nah, I think the depression would be closer to 2-3 years max if we allowed nature to take it's course..very sharp and painful..but not doomsday. And no we aren't headed for hyper inflation (ala zimbabwae) but 10% annually is very feasible. And krypt, I know the fed returns profits to the treasury.. Problem is they share their losses too..lol |
And what do you base this 2-3 years max figure on? |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
And what do you base this 2-3 years max figure on? |
Probably the same place you pulled the 10 year figure from ;)
Obviously we are speculating since we don't know what will happen if we adopted a laissez faire approach. It's never been done in a modern economy.. The closest we came was the 1921-23 recession/depression. It was a miserable contraction and government intervention was minimal (compared to today at least). The government allowed private wage rates to fall and companies to go under. Conditions were ugly but the economy reached a bottom and recovery began in in less than 3 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-WWI_recession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_recession |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Conditions were ugly but the economy reached a bottom and recovery began in in less than 3 years. |
well yeah, if we choose to ignore the thirties :rolleyes: |
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| Capitalizt |
| boom bust baby.. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
boom bust baby.. |
= capitalism. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
= capitalism. |
=
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