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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 50)
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I don't think you understand the concept. |
i must not understand the concept. my impression was that you are taking the position that the distance from the 52 week high, in and of itself, somehow signals that the stock is undervalued. either i missed the discussion about evaluating another variable, or you didn't discuss that. i would actually like to hear it. so if you can direct me to that discussion i would certainly appreciate that.
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
It is an assumption based on the idea that most undervalued stocks are far below their 52 week high. Wouldn't you agree?
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yes i would....if a stock is currently undervalued, the stock necessarily has to be either below or at the 52 week high. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
i must not understand the concept. my impression was that you are taking the position that the distance from the 52 week high, in and of itself, somehow signals that the stock is undervalued. either i missed the discussion about evaluating another variable, or you didn't discuss that. i would actually like to hear it. so if you can direct me to that discussion i would certainly appreciate that. |
I think you may have thought that I was categorically stating that undervaluation equals the distance below the 52 week high. What I am really stating is that one of the conditions of a stock being undervalued is the distance from the 52 week high. But my model takes into account a myriad of other conditions for undervaluation. I was just using the 52 week high as a benchmark to test my top 5 stocks valuations to the lowest 5 stocks. As you could see, according to the distance from the 52 week high, my top 5 stocks are 5% more undervalued. The purpose of this was to test whether my model can discern valuation, of which it has passed this test. But the 52 week high benchmark is but one possible test that could be run. But for simplicities sake, this is what I chose to use...;) |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I think you may have thought that I was categorically stating that undervaluation equals the distance below the 52 week high. What I am really stating is that one of the conditions of a stock being undervalued is the distance from the 52 week high. But my model takes into account a myriad of other conditions for undervaluation. I was just using the 52 week high as a benchmark to test my top 5 stocks valuations to the lowest 5 stocks. As you could see, according to the distance from the 52 week high, my top 5 stocks are 5% more undervalued. The purpose of this was to test whether my model can discern valuation, of which it has passed this test. But the 52 week high benchmark is but one possible test that could be run. But for simplicities sake, this is what I chose to use...;) |
i read through that post again. now i see what you were doing. my bad. simply stated, you were saying that your FS analysis should pick undervalued stocks. the 52 week high analysis was just another test to see if it is undervalued. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Never pulled the trigger...;)
They are balancing on the edge, but there is still actually a good chance of a resurgence with FMD and TERI, more so than if they just flat out declared bankruptcy and collapsed. Private student loans are going nowhere in my opinion. The government is stuck throwing money away to Iraq and private contractors, so I'm not expecting them to help any college students. I don't need a bloody loan, I need a damn grant. |
Glad to hear it. My problem with FMD is that they don't actually provide any student loan funding per se. They are but a facilitator of higher-rate, private student loans and they are now operating with a broken business model--they are a gain-on-sale securitization machine. We'll see how much longer that can last. The company could hang around for a while but at this point, I'd think SLM is a better way to play student lending. Just my 2c.;) |
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| Groundhog Boy |
What a ty day. My portfolio was down around 3% after shooting way up last week. Expected, though. I cashed out my V earnings last week @ 65 because I can't justify the high ratio when comparing the market cap with MA. I'm expecting April 28th might piss a bunch of people off.
Good to see that Cramer bumped my MRK stock tonight during afterhours after I bought it during last week's sale. Not that it needed it, it was already so low that if you didn't realize, sorry. I'll even go so bold as to say that Citigroup is still on sale after last week's bump. If I had another couple grand to work with, I'd pick up 100 shares at the $23-24 rate it's trading at even now (was in the high teens a few weeks ago).
My girlfriend got that and SGP (she works there) after the fall. Neither could believe the over-reaction on the Vytorin study, especially since no one really read the report and looked at how bad off the subjects were in the first place.
I think Ag's kind of tapped for big gains now, MON, MOS, POT are just huge and I can't see them getting that much higher. I realize an ag crisis is going on in China (good for shipping, too), but all of them trading at $115-175 is a bit much. You'd think we're looking at profits/unit like you get with RIMM or Google. |
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| Shakka |
Goldman just pulled out majorly on FMD. They're toast. Residual writedowns coming, funding drying up. Just goes to show that you shouldn't catch a falling knife. It'll probably trade down to $1 or so and bounce around for months on rumors of capital injections, management changes, etc. Just like so many subprime mortgage companies and gain-on-sale securitizers that have no reason to exist.
Edit: The fact that the stock is getting bid up from its lows tells me that this market is truly irrational (particularly in light of what the retail sector is doing today). |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
Goldman just pulled out majorly on FMD. They're toast. Residual writedowns coming, funding drying up. Just goes to show that you shouldn't catch a falling knife. It'll probably trade down to $1 or so and bounce around for months on rumors of capital injections, management changes, etc. Just like so many subprime mortgage companies and gain-on-sale securitizers that have no reason to exist.
Edit: The fact that the stock is getting bid up from its lows tells me that this market is truly irrational (particularly in light of what the retail sector is doing today). |
They've still got $350 million. Let's see how long it lasts. For TERI to become bankrupt, their insured bonds have to fall in value $93 million out of $16.2 billion in total bonds which could default. I'de estimate most student loans to be around $40,000. So...
(Bonds insured $) / (average student loan estimate) = Number of loans outstanding
(16.2 x 10^9) / (4 x 10^4) = 4.05 x 10^5
(Number of loans outstanding) / (Bonds insured $) = Y / ($ left @ TERI) ........ Y = Number of defaulted loans until TERI goes bankrupt
(4.05 x 10^5) / (16.2 x 10^9) = Y / (9.3 x 10^7)
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37.7 x 10^12 = (16.2 x 10^9)Y
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(37.7 x 10^12) / (16.2 x 10^9) = Y
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Y = 2.3 x 10^3 or 2300
All TERI needs is APPROXIMATELY 2,300 loans out of about 400,000 to default for them to go bankrupt. That seems very edgy. I hope they don't go bankrupt. This is the kind of stuff that happens when education is neglected. The fact I need a loan to go to school is pathetic especially living in the richest nation on earth. |
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| Krypton |
| Looks like my fund has reached a resistance at $11.00... |
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| atbell |
I thought I might be able to pull away, still a chance though.
I shuffled up the holdings again. Heavily weighted in steel holding a lot of the three major iron ore producers who essentially make up the whole market. |
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| Capitalizt |
I bought GE today @$32.
3.88% dividend. :wtf: |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
I thought I might be able to pull away, still a chance though.
I shuffled up the holdings again. Heavily weighted in steel holding a lot of the three major iron ore producers who essentially make up the whole market. |
Excellent choice. I have found the steel & iron industry to be a pretty good buy. And this comes back around to my favorite sector, dry-bulk shipping which ships steel and iron around the world. |
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