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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 83)
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
you don't. you watch for price action at support/resistance, it seriously works very very very well. there's no doubt that people that are moving the markets are aware of them. i made money on the bounce up today in the SPY, caught like 70% of the move.
check out this guys videos http://www.youtube.com/user/SnP500Trader |
I'm not psychologically comfortable with trying to gauge the psychological sentiment of the market. Even with charts and indicators and all that stuff. I'm horrible at gauging other people's emotions and I think that translates into how I view the stock market. I guess that's why I'm a pure fundamentals investor. The only thing I use technicals for is to find the best possible price for an investment. |
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| mndeg |
how do you plan on making money going long in the next 2 years? do you do short etfs? because this is seriously going to get much much worse. from financial credit crunch to consumer defaults. some college students can't even get student loans anymore. no college...
bear sterns was worth 80-90 book value/share and they got taken over for $2.50 a share.
| quote: | | I'm not psychologically comfortable with trying to gauge the psychological sentiment of the market. Even with charts and indicators and all that stuff. I'm horrible at gauging other people's emotions and I think that translates into how I view the stock market. I guess that's why I'm a pure fundamentals investor. The only thing I use technicals for is to find the best possible price for an investment. |
there's no emotion in it, it's all very mechanical. at least when done right it is.
right now i'm wondering how bernanke and paulson can prop up the markets any longer, they seriously don't have anything left. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
how do you plan on making money going long in the next 2 years? do you do short etfs? because this is seriously going to get much much worse. from financial credit crunch to consumer defaults. some college students can't even get student loans anymore. no college...
bear sterns was worth 80-90 book value/share and they got taken over for $2.50 a share.
there's no emotion in it, it's all very mechanical. at least when done right it is. |
There's always a bull even in a bear market. For example, when credit and real estate were blowing up, I switched to commodities. Now commodities are blowing, and now I'm looking at technology. That's how I do it. I let the fundamentals tell me where to go.. |
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| mndeg |
tech is not looking very good right now. at least consumer tech. but they will nosedive along with the entire market when it does. broadcom and qualcomm are the only decent ones I can think of.
btw POT got destroyed today! do you know why commodities are going down? demand destruction is really all that great? |
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| Groundhog Boy |
Anyone with thoughts on the brutal assing that natural gas and all nat gas companies have taken in the past month? I have one oil/gas company so I haven't really been hit with the losses related to gas, but I'm just trying to find a bottom to make up for the screwing that I took with other commodity-related names through July. Why is a relatively cleaner fuel that politicians seem to speak favorably of getting beaten more than coal and oil? They were trading it at almost $14/MMbtu at the beginning of July, now it's $8.65. Chesapeake and Noble have just been killed, down over 39% and 30%, respectively, on good earnings and growth
I guess i just need someone to beat it into my head as to why this is happening when demand for oil is easier cut by consumers than gas. It's not like people are shutting off their cooking, electricity, etc. like they're cutting their mileage. You can't get together with your neighbors to cook dinner (at least most won't), heat/cool your home, and run your power. |
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| mndeg |
markets are not logical and never have been. I guess they simply aren't in favor right now, typically nat gas as a commodity picks up when winter comes.
UNG dropped 7.5% today! |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
btw POT got destroyed today! do you know why commodities are going down? demand destruction is really all that great? |
Yeah, I don't have enough whiskey for today's results. It seemed like every time I checked my portfolio, I'd lost another .25-.5% overall. You get used to the volatility of these stocks, but the 14+% beating that EXM took today, coupled with the 8+% on Friday was brutal. I was thinking of selling an 8% rise in that name since I bought it when it was up on Thursday, now it's all gone and more. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
tech is not looking very good right now. at least consumer tech. but they will nosedive along with the entire market when it does. broadcom and qualcomm are the only decent ones I can think of.
btw POT got destroyed today! do you know why commodities are going down? demand destruction is really all that great? |
Well, take a look at AUO, TKC, GLW, NVDA, VMW, HIMX.
As for the destruction of the commodities sector? Well, commodities exploded, in large part, as a flight to safety from the financial/banking/retail sectors. I believe commodities prices became disconnected from their fundamental values, and thus, a bubble came around. That overvaluation is now reverting back to the average which is more correlated to fundamental values. I see over reaction after overreaction though. The market over reacted by overvaluing commodity assets, and now is over reacting by under valuing commodity assets.
| quote: | Anyone with thoughts on the brutal assing that natural gas and all nat gas companies have taken in the past month? I have one oil/gas company so I haven't really been hit with the losses related to gas, but I'm just trying to find a bottom to make up for the screwing that I took with other commodity-related names through July. Why is a relatively cleaner fuel that politicians seem to speak favorably of getting beaten more than coal and oil? They were trading it at almost $14/MMbtu at the beginning of July, now it's $8.65. Chesapeake and Noble have just been killed, down over 39% and 30%, respectively, on good earnings and growth
I guess i just need someone to beat it into my head as to why this is happening when demand for oil is easier cut by consumers than gas. It's not like people are shutting off their cooking, electricity, etc. like they're cutting their mileage. You can't get together with your neighbors to cook dinner (at least most won't), heat/cool your home, and run your power. |
See above post.. The commodities bubble has burst. |
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| mndeg |
love the double digit inflation and gold going down.
seeeccttooor rotation
check this out. gives you a view on sector rotation
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Do you ever use it?
I've got 16 different formulas for intrinsic value, with only two DCF formulas out of that 16. I'm scouring finance textbooks, Aswath Damodaran's website, wikipedia, investopedia for any valuation formulas I can find. I'm going to buy "Financial Modeling" from amazon..see what's in their. I'm surprised at the amount of books on financial modeling available these days.. |
I don't do a lot of valuation work per se. However, when I see that an analyst has used DCF to come up with his price target, I just take it with a grain of salt. It's pretty commonplace though. It's just too easy to tweak your assumptions to justify your results, IMO. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
I don't do a lot of valuation work per se. However, when I see that an analyst has used DCF to come up with his price target, I just take it with a grain of salt. It's pretty commonplace though. It's just too easy to tweak your assumptions to justify your results, IMO. |
I agree, which is why I try to use as many formulas as possible so I can get an average. I'm looking for a "margin of safety", so if the average gives me a 30-40%+ intrinsic value to market value, I'de consider that a pretty accurate indicator of the equity's undervaluation of the market. |
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| mndeg |
S&P 500 up 2.79% today! no news from FOMC that wasn't priced in.
USO down 2% |
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