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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 15)
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| Krypton |
Let me be the mod for the business forum!!!:cool: :cool:
My Fundamentals Fund has in the first week of inception given me 3 stocks with over 10% gains.
TBSI has risen 30% in the past week and has added nicely to my appreciation. Industrials Sector.
EXM is a shipping company that has given me 11%.
TSP is a telecommunications company in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Brazel has a population numbering in the hundreds of millions and it is a huge market. Brazil is also a fast growing economy (emerging market) and TSP does pass my fundamentals test. TSP has given me 13%. |
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| Trancer-X |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
pump..pump...pump...dilute...dilute...dilute..
http://www.breitbart.com/article.ph...&show_article=1
If it weren't for the fed printing dollars like crazy, this market would be in the toilet right now. There is every reason to be bearish, but since the feds are intervening to keep the markets up, it's hard to bet against it. I'm not going long, but I AM shorting this piece of crap called the US dollar ;) |
Someone just plopped down $2 BILLION on Call options for SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) :nervous:
So yeah, shorting might be a good idea for the month of September. :( |
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| Trancer-X |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
Can I just ask a question to people in this thread - is buying stocks and shares something that everyone (most or lots) does in America, almost like a hobby? I have no idea whatsoever about any of the terminology you're using and none of my friends would either, but it seems like everyone here's a mini wall street trader! Is this part of American culture and pretty wide-spread? It's very very rare in the UK (in my experience anyway) for people to be interested in this or pay that much attention to markets (like they might be interested in the news for example) My dad has some shares but these are investments rather than him keeping an eye on the market and selling/buying when the market moves |
Do many people in the U.K. know about the City of London Corporation?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_London_Corporation
You have to love the Knights Templar cross on their shield with the dragons flanking it. And their motto, hahaha. Their motto, Domine Dirige Nos, meaning "Lord, guide us." I tend to think that their "Lord" is the f***ing devil.
| quote: | "He seized the dragon, that ancient serpent, who is the devil, or Satan, and bound him for a thousand years."
- Revelations 20:2 |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trancer-X
Do many people in the U.K. know about the City of London Corporation?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_London_Corporation
You have to love the Knights Templar cross on their shield with the dragons flanking it. And their motto, hahaha. Their motto, Domine Dirige Nos, meaning "Lord, guide us." I tend to think that their "Lord" is the f***ing devil. |
Well I'm sure plenty of people know about it, but I've never heard of em, I think over here, this kind of knowledge comes with professional experience, rather than somethin people wanna find out about on their own |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | | "Nowadays, with its Lord Mayor, its Beadles, Sheriffs and Aldermen, its separate police force and its select electorate of freemen and liverymen, the City of London is an anachronism of the worst kind. The Corporation, which runs the City like a one-party mini-state, is an unreconstructed old boys' network whose medievalist pageantry camouflages the very real power and wealth which it holds." - pp110, Rough Guide to England, 2006 |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
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Seems really odd that something like that exists in England! Never heard of it myself, but then again, I'm a Northerner so keep my nose out of London lol! |
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| Krypton |
Here's a little treat from my own research...
Periodically, I'll post up stocks my research has shown have good fundamentals and are also undervalued which provides for opportunities to buy while the price is low.
Stocks for the Week:
Sunoco Inc. (SUN) - Sunoco's price has fallen along with the correction that market suffered the past 2 weeks. This should provide for an opportunity to buy at a low price.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman's stock is highly price around the $200 level, making it more expensive for retail investors to buy it, but for your mutual fund, Goldman stock is trading at a discount. This is because some of Goldman Sach's hedge funds went broke because they invested heavily in collateralized debt obligations (CDO's), in other words, they lost a lot of money investing in the sub-prime market. The stock price suffered. But we all know a giant like Goldman is not going anywhere. Now is a good time to buy.
TransGlobe Energy (TGA) - TransGlobe is a small cap pick of mine that is volatile and heavily influenced by oil prices. I also own shares of TGA which may influence what I say next. Besides my personal stake and the risk factor, I believe the reward more than offsets this risk. I've been listening to the conference calls, and management has a very good direction for the company. The company has been profitable for the last 7 years and returns for investors more than double, triple, even more for those invested for several years. The company also has instituted a buy-back. The share price has recently suffered with the market correction, but the fundamentals have not changed, and this company has no exposure (duh its oil) in the sub prime mess. I strongly suggest anyone interested to read over TGA's annual report on the company website, and their look at their fundamentals. |
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| Krypton |
| Capitalizt, your NAV has barely moved. What are you doing son!? I know you've got some short ETFs or something. Did you buy a money market security? Is your assets in fixed income? I know it is! Or its in cash. I'm watching you. |
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| Krypton |
I starting a spreadsheet in which I will be able to value stocks based on 4 different fundamental ratios. They are the Price/Equity ratio, Price/Sales ratio, PEG ratio, and the Price/Book ratio.
It took me about an hour to write out 4 essential formulas using these metrics to determine a stock price valuation. What the spreadsheet will do is place a current valuation on the stock, and also place a valuation for a time period in the future.
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The formulas are as follows...
Q = Stock Price
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1. PE Valuation
(PE)(EPS) = Stock Price or Q
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2. PS Valuation
(PS)(Sales! per Share) = Stock Price or Q
!Sales and revenue mean the same thing.
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3. PEG Valuation
Q = BEG; where Q = Stock Price, B = PEG ratio, E = EPS, G = estimated EPS growth rate by %
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4. PB Valuation
Q = [(PB)(X)] / A; where Q = Stock Price, PB = Price-to-Book, X = Shareholders Equity, A = Shares Outstanding.
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I'm going to develop this spreadsheet so by using metrics from the past 10 years, based on the formulas above, I will come out with a very accurate respresentation of what a companies stock is really worth. Each formula will have its own estimated stock price, but I'm going to average them all out to get a final stock price estimate. Currently, my valuations only use the PS ratio. Now that I've learned a lot more about the other metrics, I can incorporate them into my calculations. God, I love math. :p
Doing the valuations will be a bit quantitatively intensive with all the number crunching, but if you want to appraise a stock for its value, my method will be a pretty straight forward way of doing it. Once I make the spreadsheet, just follow my instructions, and it can be done by anyone who knows how to use excel.
I'm also going to continue looking for metrics I can turn into formulas to add to my spreadsheet calculations. I may add dividend and payout ratios and corresponding formulas for them tomorrow. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I starting a spreadsheet in which I will be able to value stocks based on 4 different fundamental ratios. They are the Price/Equity ratio, Price/Sales ratio, PEG ratio, and the Price/Book ratio.
It took me about an hour to write out 4 essential formulas using these metrics to determine a stock price valuation. What the spreadsheet will do is place a current valuation on the stock, and also place a valuation for a time period in the future.
---
The formulas are as follows...
Q = Stock Price
---
1. PE Valuation
(PE)(EPS) = Stock Price or Q
---
2. PS Valuation
(PS)(Sales! per Share) = Stock Price or Q
!Sales and revenue mean the same thing.
---
3. PEG Valuation
Q = BEG; where Q = Stock Price, B = PEG ratio, E = EPS, G = estimated EPS growth rate by %
---
4. PB Valuation
Q = [(PB)(X)] / A; where Q = Stock Price, PB = Price-to-Book, X = Shareholders Equity, A = Shares Outstanding.
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I'm going to develop this spreadsheet so by using metrics from the past 10 years, based on the formulas above, I will come out with a very accurate respresentation of what a companies stock is really worth. Each formula will have its own estimated stock price, but I'm going to average them all out to get a final stock price estimate. Currently, my valuations only use the PS ratio. Now that I've learned a lot more about the other metrics, I can incorporate them into my calculations. God, I love math. :p
Doing the valuations will be a bit quantitatively intensive with all the number crunching, but if you want to appraise a stock for its value, my method will be a pretty straight forward way of doing it. Once I make the spreadsheet, just follow my instructions, and it can be done by anyone who knows how to use excel.
I'm also going to continue looking for metrics I can turn into formulas to add to my spreadsheet calculations. I may add dividend and payout ratios and corresponding formulas for them tomorrow. |
BAM, the finished product.
The 6th formula was the 'Dividend Yield Valuation' formula and went like this...
Stock price = Dividend Rate / Dividend Yeild
This is only for dividend paying stocks only though.
I'm looking at other valuation metrics like price-to-cash flow but those are a bit harder to find.
With this spreadsheet, you enter all the metrics for each stock into each box . Each box is labelled so you know what information to put in. This baby uses 6 different formulas plus numerous algorithms to come up with one accurately estimated stock price. This is how an investor finds out if the price he is paying is high or low. If the estimate is more then 10% above the current trading price, then you have found yourself a good bargain and should buy. This spreadsheet requires 70 different metrics, but all of them can be retrieved through MSN's moneycentral. It's numbers crunching to the max, but this is what securities analysis is all about. |
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| Krypton |
Stock price analysis for Goldman Sachs (GS) as of Friday, August 31, 2007.
The 'Future Intrinsic Value' is what I think Goldman Sachs is really worth. According to this analysis, Goldman stock is worth around $220 or 26% more than it is trading at today. I already know Goldman's fundamentals are above the industry and market. The company's fundamentals are graded a B- by this other spreadsheet...
Goldman has taken a beating from this sub-prime meltdown, and the stock has suffered. Consider this the right time to buy. Goldman will recover, and when this credit crunch is finally behind us, the stock will come back.
The chart indicates to me, that Goldman may have reached its support or bottom line. If the subprime risk of Goldman is already priced into the stock, then I'de say all it can do is go up from there. But I don't know how much exposure Goldman has, so I can't say definitively that it has reached its low.
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If you look at the valuation spread, the PSR valuation is omitted from the final result because the formula just doesn't work for Goldman. This is a common as all formulas don't work for all companies. For example, I can't use the dividend yield formula if the company doesn't have a dividend. |
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| atbell |
I've been holding GS since the start, one of my worst performing stocks. Just read an economist article that pointed out they have a division that holds cash and is waiting on bargins to apear.
What's really confusing me is that the resource companies I picked are getting hit in the turmoil. Thier main customers are Chinese, which has had almost no shake up from the sub-prime drop. I'm expecting things to pick up in these sectors over the next month.
I've also done some reading from my old school text. I was cruising through the bookshelf when I realized Ben Bernake was one of the authors. An interesting note from the text is that it talked of over accounting for inflation in current statistical methods by 1-2%. That would explain Ben's response of intrest rate cuts and money printing (not to mention removing the M3 data release).
I'm betting on continued US$ slide because I don't like Ben's argument for the overstatement of inflation. In my reasoning that means that there is a doubling effect because 1. there are a lot of inflationary pressures (especially demand side), and 2. the Fed's response is going to consistently under account for inflation so long as Ben is at the wheel. |
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