|
TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 96)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
So a 150% return... lets say youve earn that in 15 months, so thats a return of approx.10% monthly right? not bad! |
Spread evenly out, yes, but there were months when my $800 was only worth $600, -30% losses. I was invested in oil before it shot up above $100. When I bought EGY, oil was around $70-80 per barrel. Then in 2008, it shot up to $140 per barrel, and with that, my investments shot up 50-100%.
I made a post about EGY in August 2007... CLICK...I sold when it reached $8. |
|
|
| mndeg |
| quote: | From the Financial Times:
We all make mistakes, even if our names are Buffett or Soros. But when great investors such as Warren Buffett and George Soros make a mistake, the lessons for the rest of us are so much more interesting.
Both get far more decisions right than wrong. Buffett took over as the world’s richest man this year with a fortune of $62bn, according to Forbes, while Soros managed to pull in $2.9bn as a hedge fund manager last year, according to Alpha. But new books cast light on some mistakes.
Vahan Jahigian’s forthcoming Even Buffett Isn’t Perfect does not quite live up to the iconoclastic promise of its title. He concludes that Buffett is “one of the greatest investors – if not the greatest – of all time”.
But he identifies one recurring problem with Buffett’s approach. He holds on to stocks too long. “Regardless of price,” Buffett once said in a letter, “we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns.” He even said he was “very reluctant to sell sub-par businesses” if they were at least producing some cash and had decent labour relations.
For Buffett, his investments are almost like a marriage. Meanwhile, Jahigian prompts him with the old adage, “never marry a stock”. These attitudes can be reconciled because Buffett views all investment decisions as though he is buying a business, rather than simply buying a stock, and takes very large stakes. Once invested, he is married to the business, not merely the stock.
For most of us, it probably does not. If a very good business has become overpriced, we should consider selling it. The emerging discipline of behavioural finance – which uses experimental psychology to explore investment decisions – suggests far more mistakes are made in deciding when to sell a stock than in the much more widely discussed arena of deciding when to buy.
One of Buffett’s great stock picks was Coca-Cola, which he rode all the way up to its brief stint as the world’s largest company by market value, a distinction it reached a little more than a decade ago. But he still holds it, even though Coke has been outperformed by many rivals since then. For Buffett, this might make sense; the rest of us should develop a selling discipline. When a stock has become overpriced, we should sell.
As for Soros’s mistakes, he has been honest enough to tell us about them himself, in real time. His forthcoming book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, on the causes of the credit crisis includes an investment diary that started at the beginning of this year. Soros gave his prognosis for 2008 and explained his investment strategy to capitalise on it. He then updated it every few weeks. The timing was fortunate: Soros’s diary took him through until the Bear Stearns fire sale last month.
Soros was the first great “global macro” fund manager, making big asset allocation bets. Most famously, he wagered that sterling would have to devalue in September 1992, forcing the UK government to leave the exchange rate mechanism.
Macro funds did well in the first quarter of this year, making an average of about 10 per cent while many other investors lost serious money. But Soros reveals in his diary that he was only flat for the period.
He failed to make money even though he was exactly correct in the way he called the global markets. In January, he predicted that the credit crisis was severe but that the acute phase would be contained because central banks would provide temporary liquidity – exactly what happened. He also saw a bubble in China. So he started the year betting on the dollar, and US and European stocks, to fall – all correct calls.
How did he fail to make money? Timing was part of it. He was heavily invested in India and China on the theory that the bubble was in its early stages. But Indian stocks fell 20 per cent in a few weeks during January, while the Shanghai Composite is now at half its level from its peak last October.
Then there was Bear Stearns. His overall prediction on US financial services was uncannily correct. But on Friday, March 14, he bought Bear Stearns stock, which closed that day at $54. The Federal Reserve had announced emergency funding and he assumed that Bear would be auctioned off to the highest bidder over the weekend.
Instead, Bear was forced into the arms of JPMorgan for $2 a share. “We forgot to take into account that Bear is disliked by the establishment,” said Soros. “The Fed would ... deal with moral hazard by punishing shareholders.”
Soros could have fared very much worse – his Bear shares were well hedged in the credit market. But by March 20,his fund was “under water for the year”, albeit to a much lesser degree than many others.
There is a belief that times of turbulence are times of greatest opportunity for those who see the big picture. But that perfectly describes George Soros. If even he can fail to make money owing to slight errors in timing and slight misreadings of individual situations, the lesson for the rest of us is sobering.
Turbulence creates risks as well as opportunities. Those of us not called Soros of Buffett should probably leave well alone. |
|
|
|
| Krypton |
| Cap, your $200 fund sucks ass!:gsmile: |
|
|
| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Cap, your $200 fund sucks ass!:gsmile: |
hmm...I wonder, if I make the fund compliant next quarter, will they want to start paying me? I'm sure it's the highest valued fund at Marketocracy.. Whadayathink?
;) |
|
|
| Moongoose |
Now you get to be on the front page and write articles instead of that McDuff guy with a puny 110$ NAV :D
Man, woudnt it be awesome if that was actually real money.
EDIT: I think i just made a trade to put that 205$ NAV to shame :p
 |
|
|
| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
hmm...I wonder, if I make the fund compliant next quarter, will they want to start paying me? I'm sure it's the highest valued fund at Marketocracy.. Whadayathink?
;) |
It doesn't count how much you have made. It counts the performance AFTER you have been compliant for at least 50% of the quarter. If you were compliant during the at $200 rise, they'de definitely want to pay you, or they'de found out how you made $200 so fast and figure out it was a mistake.. |
|
|
| mndeg |
im short hd
short sndk (told you this would turnover)
long gdx (only because it bounced off support) if it gaps down tomorrow I'm out |
|
|
| Krypton |
You guys should join the Motley Fool CAPS website. All you do is register and then you pick stock and rate them as outperform or underperform. You picks are graded according to how accurate you are and by how much your stock underperform or outperform the market. I started mine about 1 week ago, and my picks are already in the top 20% of the site which has about 60,000 people. I base my picks on in depth analysis and below are the stocks likely to outperform and underperform the market. So far, after 1 week, my accuracy is 60%. But I fully expect after perhaps 6 months to a year, my accuracy will rise dramatically, perhaps to 70%, maybe even close to 80%.
MNDEG, you might find this useful. The underperformers are very shortable stocks.
The stocks which I predict an outperform all have gammas far above 1. A gamma higher than 1 indicates the fundamentals of the stock are under priced by the market. The higher the gamma, the more under priced the stock is.
STOCKS LIKELY TO OUTPERFORM:
MTW
PTR
HANS
EXM
ESEA
GKK
TNE
SPAR
AUO
DWSN
CRH
COH
VMW
TNH
EPAX
PCR
TKC
NVDA
XOM
The underperformers are stocks with gamma's less than 1, but my maximum is .6 gamma. So stocks below .6 are REALLY over priced by perhaps 40% at least.
STOCKS LIKELY TO UNDERPERFORM:
FOLD
AIP
CFFN
ACOR
VRUS
TMTA
IDRA
VOCS
AUXL
STSI
CBRX
RIGL
REGN
PARL
RMG
PVA
IWA
UIS
TIV
HEV
MHO
LF
AIV
BXC
ZLC
HME
This is my CAPS page. http://caps.fool.com/MyPlayer.aspx?source=ifltnvsnv0000001
Unfortunately, to view it, you must be registered on CAPS. But trust me, CAPS is a great stock website and everyone here should join it. You will also be able to see my picks, my performance, accuracy, etc. My name is "FinancialModeler". |
|
|
| mndeg |
My trading style is too different. I exclusively use options and the options have to be liquid. I generally don't hold for more than a few days in this market if that long at all unless there's a general change of trend (right now it's chop). I try to have the market and sector in my favor and don't trade against it. I am always looking for turning points. Bouncing off resistance/support, a high volume break of resistance/support (RDN lately although I missed that even though it was on a watchlist of mine)
If I ever make enough money at the end of this bear market I'm going to buy a ton of cheap high dividend paying stocks and sell covered calls off of them. It's like renting a house except you don't have to deal with house stuff. |
|
|
| Krypton |
Fannie and Freddie may need a bail out. Well, I say "F*ck them"...
I sent my representative and senators a message...
| quote: | Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are on the verge of collapse. Rumors are flying that these two companies may have to be bailed out by the government. Don't you forget that it is these companies management who decided to ignore risk management. It is their fault they failed.
I ask you to protect your constituency and tax payers against these corrupt corporations. If they need a bailout, then the government should own them out right. Fire the CEO and board of directors, and throw away their severance packages.
I AM TIRED OF CORPORATIONS WHO PRIVATIZE PROFITS AND SOCIALIZE LOSES. I WILL NO LONG PAY FOR THE FAILURES OF CORRUPT CORPORATIONS!!
I have nothing against corporations. I plan to start one myself. I am against corporations who dump their failures on tax payers. |
|
|
|
| mndeg |
They WILL be socialized by the gov. It's just a matter of time.
The Great Consumer Crash of 2009
http://seekingalpha.com/article/908...opular_articles
I have a new charting program now. http://iqchart.com/
It is 9999999999999 times better than what IB gives you and a ton better than the java charts optionsxpress gives you. Very clean, easy to use interface, has all the options that I need, downside is that it only refreshes once per minute. A big positive is that you can look at different timeframes very quickly, there's no delay.
Tomorrow I'll be looking for FMD to turn over, it may take a few days or it could be right at the open. |
|
|
| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Fannie and Freddie may need a bail out. Well, I say "F*ck them"...
I sent my representative and senators a message... |
i'm having a hard time understanding your position on government intervention. recently you talk about nationalizing industries and now you say fannie and freddie. in reality, a bailout never comes cheap, so in effect, the company is being nationalized with government oversight and regulation. |
|
|
|
|
