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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 177)
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| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
For your reading pleasure, here is a copy of Steve Eisman's speech at last week's Ira Sohn conference (this is an annual meeting where smart fund managers pitch their best ideas). If you don't know who Steve Eisman is, you should. He is featured prominently in Michael Lewis' latest book, The Big Short. |
A good article from what I had time to read (hope to get back to it later).
I read a study about Canadian post-secondary schooling which had similar conclusions. It had a list of the schools where loan defaults were highest and all of them were 'non-traditional' types of schools that weren't associated with the government (aka, near unregulated).
It's not surprising that these problems have come up. Culturally 'education' has been sold as the way to climb the social and economic ladder. This has been sold to those who aren't really in a position to be able to deterimen that 'education' doesn't just mean going to a random school, it means working hard to improve your intelectual capabilities ... or reading, writing and doing math.
Learning a trade is ok, but one really needs to first evaluate the supply and demand for people with the skills being taught. All kinds of these 'trades' which are being taught in non-government institutions seem to be hitting labour markets that are way way over supplied.
Getting back to the US, here's a map from the NY Fed which covers, county by county, where delinquient student loans are concentrated:
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditionsmap/
(it also has mortgage, credit card, and car payment deliquency rates) |
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| Comrade Stalin |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
Sounds pretty high risk, I personally can't stand loans though.
Have you thought of trying some sales positions to build up some quick capital?
Big ticket sales people can make coin pretty fast if the economy is right. I'm thinking cars, real estate, and electronics as industries with decent commisions.
I'm also warry of trading in such short periods because they are so prone to sentiment based volitility. Clearly from what I remember of your models (didn't realize you'd changed screen names) you've probably got a better handle on this then me. |
Really, it's not high risk, because my turnover is so high. If I could get someone to loan me $5,000 or $10,000 I could pay them back within 1 or 2 months with a 12% APY. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Comrade Stalin
Really, it's not high risk, because my turnover is so high. If I could get someone to loan me $5,000 or $10,000 I could pay them back within 1 or 2 months with a 12% APY. |
So why can't you use those sites I mentioned? I'm sure you can find a willing investor for 12%. |
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| Comrade Stalin |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
So why can't you use those sites I mentioned? I'm sure you can find a willing investor for 12%. |
Because they require a minimum credit score, which I don't have :P |
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| Comrade Stalin |
| CSKI - I'm getting huge numbers for this Chinese company. Low price, great fundamentals. I will have a report ready tomorrow on it. |
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| Comrade Stalin |
| Shakka, what is your favorite time to expiration on your options? 2 months? 6 months? 1 year? The less time, the more time decay, so do you pay attention to that buy more long-dated options like say, December 2010, instead of July 2010? I am also following a 30-day to expiration rule, where I sell my option positions 30 days to expiration because of that accelerating time decay. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Comrade Stalin
Shakka, what is your favorite time to expiration on your options? 2 months? 6 months? 1 year? The less time, the more time decay, so do you pay attention to that buy more long-dated options like say, December 2010, instead of July 2010? I am also following a 30-day to expiration rule, where I sell my option positions 30 days to expiration because of that accelerating time decay. |
Depends on the premium and my expected timing of a potential catalyst. Shorter dated stuff has the most beta, so for market calls, I'm usually more short-term oriented (~2 months). That said, I've purchased options on stocks with close to 1 year expiration, knowing that I'm going to give up a lot of time value. |
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| Comrade Stalin |
| I'm paper trading SPY options. Overweight on put options, so I have a net negative delta. How far to expiration would you choose? I'm stuck between July 2010 and December 2010. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Comrade Stalin
I'm paper trading SPY options. Overweight on put options, so I have a net negative delta. How far to expiration would you choose? I'm stuck between July 2010 and December 2010. |
I can't answer that for you. Everyone has their own investment style. Do what is comfortable for you and what you think is right. They're about to begin trading index options on a weekly expiration schedule (which I think is completely nuts and moronic as it is only going to add to the already extreme volatility). |
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| Chairman Meow |
| I know everyone has their own style. I'm just looking for a place to start. I know you're a professional trader so I would naturally look up to you for a benchmark on formulating my own strategies for the first time. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by Chairman Meow
I know everyone has their own style. I'm just looking for a place to start. I know you're a professional trader so I would naturally look up to you for a benchmark on formulating my own strategies for the first time. |
What's a delta? |
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| Chairman Meow |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
What's a delta? |
Calls .7
Puts -.318 |
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