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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 126)
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
No offense against Capitalizt, but believing a deflationary economy is a good thing really is an ignorant view. |
ah krypt..you had so much potential, what happened man? ;) And why haven't you understood any of my posts? I've said about 4 times in the past week that I dont' mind a little inflation..but today's policies are pushing us down the path to hyperinflation. I simply want to hit the brakes and restore a tiny bit of fiscal sanity. As a market man, you should want the same thing.
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
lol. capitalism is one of the most coercive structures ever created by man. |
Orly? Coercion involves the threat of physical violence. Only government has a monopoly on that. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
hyperinflation. |
that's total bull, lol.
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Coercion involves the threat of physical violence. |
its not all about using violence. its about power.
| quote: |
Coercion (/ko(ʊ)ˈɝ.ʒ(ə)n/) is the practice of compelling a person or manipulating them to behave in an involuntary way (whether through action or inaction) by use of threats, intimidation, trickery, or some other form of pressure or force. |
wiki. |
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| Capitalizt |
| threats..intimidation..pressure..force.. All backed by the threat of violence. No company no matter how greedy has the right to put a gun to your head or detain you against your will. Try not paying your taxes and refusing to leave your house when the feds try to sieze it. See what happens. ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
threats..intimidation..pressure..force.. All backed by the threat of violence. No company no matter how greedy has the right to put a gun to your head or detain you against your will. Try not paying your taxes and refusing to leave your house when the feds try to sieze it. See what happens. ;) |
Coercion does not necessarily require the use of force. I can threaten to fire you for not working 12 hours a day 7 days a week. If I am some peasant immigrant with nothing else, I have no choice. |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Coercion does not necessarily require the use of force. I can threaten to fire you for not working 12 hours a day 7 days a week. If I am some peasant immigrant with nothing else, I have no choice. |
Not the same thing..and not nearly as bad as the true coercion that government does. In any case, situations like you mentioned never last long in any free market. Competitors and alternatives always spring up over time that will attract more workers. I'm not saying all businessmen are benevolent and out to help society before they help themselves..but compared to busybodies in government, they certainly are the lesser of two evils. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Not the same thing..and not nearly as bad as the true coercion that government does. In any case, situations like you mentioned never last long in any free market. Competitors and alternatives always spring up over time that will attract more workers. I'm not saying all businessmen are benevolent and out to help society before they help themselves..but compared to busybodies in government, they certainly are the lesser of two evils. |
I wish I could live in capitalizt's fantasy land. He and the socialists live on different sides of the same coin. |
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| Joss Weatherby |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
I wish I could live in capitalizt's fantasy land. He and the socialists live on different sides of the same coin. |
You know what is great about Australia? All the crazy totalitarianism and iron-fisted rule of a communist "socialist" government, but none of those awesome (if somewhat flawed) social programs. :) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
Not the same thing..and not nearly as bad as the true coercion that government does. In any case, situations like you mentioned never last long in any free market. Competitors and alternatives always spring up over time that will attract more workers. I'm not saying all businessmen are benevolent and out to help society before they help themselves..but compared to busybodies in government, they certainly are the lesser of two evils. |
A companies sole purpose is to profit, no matter the material or human cost. Do you actually think the market will regulate itself, protect worker's rights? I'm with PKC on this one, it's fantasy land. And that's why a mixed system is the best system. |
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| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
if you have huge student debt, say 200K, a well paying job that will keep pace with inflation (tax lawyer), inflation in the range of 6-8% is actually a good thing. If my wages keep pace I hope we have a few years of inflation. |
There's no way wages will keep pace.
The rest of the world is very aware of that the US has the option of inflating away the debts and I'm certain that the major holders of US debt will do what they can so that that doesn't happen in any substantial way. |
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| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
A companies sole purpose is to profit, no matter the material or human cost. Do you actually think the market will regulate itself, protect worker's rights? I'm with PKC on this one, it's fantasy land. And that's why a mixed system is the best system. |
+1
A mixed system is without a doubt optimal, finding the right mix is the difficult part. |
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| Krypton |
I'v been working on the macro side of my financial model and this is what I'v got. I have developed 4 formulas based on slope intercept form which estimate the value of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and 10-Year Treasury Note for any given time. Here they are...
NOTE: y = present value at given time (t); t = time value
1) Dow Jones Industrial Index
y(t) = 96.04t + 318
where t(0) = 1929
2) S&P 500 Index
y(t) = 13.71t + 17
where t(0) = 1950
3) NASDAQ Composite Index
y(t) = 37.7t + 119
where t(0) = 1972
4) 10-Year Treasury Bond
y(t) = -.03t + 4.1
where t(0) = 1962
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Now I'v created an algorithm where all I have to do is enter in the time value for any given year that I want and it will return to me the future/present value of the index I'm looking at. When I enter in the time value for 2010 (next year), this is what I get...
So according to my calculations, the 3 major indexes of the US market are at equilibrium, and thus, technically not cheap. This really irks me because I believe the markets are extremely cheap. The ratio between dividend/earnings yields to the 10-Year Treasury Yield is hugely in favor of a cheap market and expensive bond.
Any thoughts? |
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| Capitalizt |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I have developed 4 formulas based on slope intercept form which estimate the value of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and 10-Year Treasury Note for any given time. |
Your forumula making skills will eventually make you rich in another area krypt, but I personally think forumlas are pointless when determining stuff like this. The market is influenced by constantly changing fundamentals, outside forces, and unpredictable human behavior. No formula can accurately predict this stuff.
If you can create a forumula first, THEN backtest it and find it to be historically accurate, I might take a second look. It's probably impossible though. Markets aren't 100% logical. |
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