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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 53)
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| Krypton |
Click below to view my index funds...
Drybulk Shipping Fund
Steel & Iron Fund
Agricultural Chemicals Fund soon to come...
These funds are made when I run an industry analysis which results in a buy rating for the industry by my financial model. I've got dozens more industries to analyze, so way more is to come...;) |
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| guerra-monstru |
| Guys, I will give you a specualtive buy DVAX. It is expected to shoot up past 8 dollars pretty soon. |
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| Krypton |
The Microsoft-Yahoo deal just fell thru' because they could not agree on the price....
| quote: | Yahoo: Microsoft's price just wasn't right
Microsoft just wasn't willing to pay enough for Yahoo to make the deal worthwhile, the company said Saturday.
"From the beginning of this process, our independent board and our management have been steadfast in our belief that Microsoft's offer undervalued the company and we are pleased that so many of our shareholders joined us in expressing that view," Yahoo Chairman Roy Bostock said in a statement.
Microsoft withdrew its offer to acquire Yahoo after increasing its $31-per-share cash-and-stock bid to $33. Yahoo evidently thought that too low--Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said Yahoo wouldn't go below $37. |
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9935209-7.html
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I did my own analysis on what I thought Yahoo was worth as a company. I came to the conclusion that YHOO was worth in the range $34 - $35. So in my opinion...YHOO's asking price was too expensive...and MSFT's bid was too low. Both company failed at the deal, and both should take the blame...
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My two portfolios are currently skyrocketing to new highs.
FSF @ $12.58
ISF @ $11.54
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Drybulk shipping making new highs....
http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=GjDhElEnEiAfHjCdMaKiAbDf
Also...Steel & Iron going up too...
http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=GjDhElEnEiAfHjCdMaKiAbDf |
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| Capitalizt |
I found out why I'm always at 0% compliance. You need to have at least 65% of the account invested at all times, and I'm rarely over 40%. I just don't see anything appetizing out there at the moment except for gold and silver (GLD and SLV). I've got around 10% in each.
I sold out of my oil short out at a loss. I can't believe how high oil is going...$126+ today..zomg. $4 a gallon nationally is guaranteed now. The republicans are screwed. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I found out why I'm always at 0% compliance. You need to have at least 65% of the account invested at all times, and I'm rarely over 40%. I just don't see anything appetizing out there at the moment except for gold and silver (GLD and SLV). I've got around 10% in each.
I sold out of my oil short out at a loss. I can't believe how high oil is going...$126+ today..zomg. $4 a gallon nationally is guaranteed now. The republicans are screwed. |
I'm preparing my new stock list...You might find some good picks...You know they work......;) |
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| Krypton |
http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/Web...gMiPlKnMaKiAbDd
http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/Web...hPbHdOhMaKiAbDf
New highs...
FSF @ $12.96
ISF @ $11.94
It's the drybulk shipping sector I've been talking about which has gotten me this high.
Here is my FSF portfolio and it's allocation. FG is a formula I developed just today. It's called "fundamental gamma". This formula tells you how valuable a stock is by comparing yields, price ratios, and the fundamental strength. This portfolio is my FG test. We know the fundamental strength works spectacularly. But let's see if this formula can tell us more than just mere fundamental strength. I want valuation too. All in one formula. NOTE: DISREGARD THE NEGATIVE SIGNS
Stock -FG -Allocation %
TRMD -353.00 -10.54%
FRO -327.00 -9.76%
TNP -321.00 -9.58%
PBR -254.00 -7.58%
BOLT -222.00 -6.63%
CVX -191.00 -5.70%
MBT -182.00 -5.43%
ESEA -157.00 -4.69%
APA -153.00 -4.57%
COH -151.00 -4.51%
DSX -142.00 -4.24%
EXM -142.00 -4.24%
NE -138.00 -4.12%
UNT -137.00 -4.09%
ESV -122.00 -3.64%
EGY -120.00 -3.58%
XTO -119.00 -3.55%
FCX -118.00 -3.52%
Next is the ISF. The "intrinsic strength" combines two fundamental strength algorithms (1 compares companies to the DOW JONES 30 & the other to S&P500) and the marketgrader.com algorithm. So it's 3 analysis algorithms in 1 rating. This next portfolio though is going to test the "intrinsic gamma" formula. Similar to the fundamental gamma, but uses the intrinsic strength in it, instead of the fundamental strength. NOTE: DISREGARD THE NEGATIVE SIGNS
Stock -IG -Allocation %
EPAX -189.00 -9.65%
CVX -180.00 -9.19%
DRYS -168.00 -8.58%
STO -154.00 -7.87%
COH -139.00 -7.10%
APA -137.00 -7.00%
TNH -136.00 -6.95%
CEO -134.00 -6.84%
NE -128.00 -6.54%
TRA -127.00 -6.49%
EXM -126.00 -6.44%
ESV -114.00 -5.82%
PCU -114.00 -5.82%
RIG -112.00 -5.72%
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If you any of you use my picks with marketocracy or real money, let me know, so I can know how you did. |
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| atbell |
Good work on the shipping gains.
I haven't heard back about the random call I got to do work so I'm guessing things have settled a bit in that area.
I've been reading a lot about Exchange Traded Funds and I think it'll be where my focus will shift to in time. My reading leads me to be able to understand industries and countries much better then specific companies.
Is there a dry bulk / oil shipping ETF? Might be a good one.
I've also got comodity reading in general as a part of my "to do" list. I'd like to have a handle on grains because they are related to the raw material trade through demand for bulk shipping tonnage and also to political stability through the stomacs of populations.
Last one to do is water. I wonder if / when it will be traded in bulk ships. |
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| Krypton |
Two more industries I consider BUY opportunities. All industries I have highlighted are so far doing pretty well...
Agricultural Chemicals
70.15% - B - Buy
CLICK
Energy Products & Services
Industries:
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration = 77.11% - B - Buy
Integrated Oil & Gas = 75.01% - B - Buy
CLICK
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| quote: | | I've been reading a lot about Exchange Traded Funds and I think it'll be where my focus will shift to in time. My reading leads me to be able to understand industries and countries much better then specific companies. |
I start from the bottom up. I only want the best of the best companies in my portfolio. And I allocate according to which of those A+ stocks are the cheapest. ETFs are nice but for me, I want complete control over each and every stock in my portfolio.
| quote: | | Is there a dry bulk / oil shipping ETF? Might be a good one. |
Search "shipping". I wouldn't know any specific ETFs by heart because I rarely use them. The best way i think of searching for ETFs is by searching by the country or industry.
Some ones I suggest you search...
1. Integrated Oil & Gas
2. Agricultural Chemicals
3. Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration
4. Steel & Iron
| quote: | | Last one to do is water. I wonder if / when it will be traded in bulk ships. |
Already happening...
Climb down the stony banks of the massive Sau reservoir in the mountains above Barcelona and you get a real sense of why this famous city is so short of water that it's resorted to bringing in emergency supplies - by ship.
CLICK |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
You missed out on EXM's rise this past week. |
My girlfriend got it at $28.70 1.5 months ago. She owes me a nice dinner. :p |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
My girlfriend got it at $28.70 1.5 months ago. She owes me a nice dinner. :p |
Did you get EXM from me??:happy2: |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Did you get EXM from me??:happy2: |
I don't remember if I got it from you or if your comments reinforced. I think you'd mentioned DSX and how much you like the shipping sector and upon further investigation, it seemed like a good sector given the ties to energy and basic materials.
I do remember pointing at your analysis when she was considering selling because it had moved down slightly after she bought and being new to trading, losing money isn't really pleasant. Either way, thanks. If you're in NYC, she'll buy you dinner. :)
I'm holding NM from the same sector, which is up 30% since I bought it after a trip down to 9.xx after I bought in. I also looked at DSX for awhile and still might get some, it's just tough to pull together the money all the time and I like to buy at least $1K at a time. Otherwise what's making 10% if 20+% of your return is going to commissions? I had a few grand laying around, plus just put more than 1/2 of my refund into my trading account, so we both decided to step into the water. It seems like a good time since the market seems to be recovering. Plus both of us have office jobs where we can babysit if need be.
Currently holding NM, MRK, CXO, and OESX. I screwed up with V and sold after getting it at $60 and selling when it stagnated at $66. 10% wasn't bad, but now, I'm kicking myself. I just don't get how there are 4x as many shares outstanding compared with MA, yet it was trading at a premium to MA. To be fair, MA has shot up since then, too and one still can't complain with 10%, plus it was monopolizing my portfolio.
She's got EXM, ACI, MOS, MRK, SGP, DAR, & JDSU. I know nothing about the latter two and she located those on her own.
She also had ATN from $32 to $42 and sold right before earnings after I pointed out that they'd missed 2 quarters in a row and had that weird SEC filing that they rescinded which discouraged me going into earnings. They were thinking of diluting by giving another public offering, which I see today that they decided to do and sunk the share value after hours.
So far she's been doing great and is probably up 15-20% in 1.5 months in the market, even though she missed most of Mosaic's huge gains. She got SGP and MRK right after the Vytorin fallout and SGP is up about 35% since, plus the EXM. I wish I could say the same, but I'm only up a few percent. I'm still pleased with what I've got, although OESX's CEO shoots shareholders in the foot on the conference calls. Thank god I wasn't in at the IPO of $19. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
I don't remember if I got it from you or if your comments reinforced. I think you'd mentioned DSX and how much you like the shipping sector and upon further investigation, it seemed like a good sector given the ties to energy and basic materials.
I do remember pointing at your analysis when she was considering selling because it had moved down slightly after she bought and being new to trading, losing money isn't really pleasant. Either way, thanks. If you're in NYC, she'll buy you dinner. :) |
I'm just asking because I appreciate when my advice brings success to people...;-)
Keep in mind the margins for drybulk shipper are huge. They charge upwards of $100k a day per ship. The ships only cost maybe $10k to operate. That right there is a 90% margin. It's also recession proof because trade is still kicking even in times of recession. I am not saying this is a perfect sector becase not sector is perfect. But the fundamentals are very much in line with the huge gains they've been making. |
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