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TranceAddict Investors Club @ Marketocracy (pg. 56)
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| Moongoose |
So i decided to join in on this game also. But since i dont know much about anything at the moment i decided to play it safe for ym first fund and go for a sector that as a geek i should know something about.
Less than a week since i started, so no real data on it yet, but still here it is.
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Moongoose
So i decided to join in on this game also. But since i dont know much about anything at the moment i decided to play it safe for ym first fund and go for a sector that as a geek i should know something about.
Less than a week since i started, so no real data on it yet, but still here it is.
Click |
I sent you an invite...;)
18 members...We're doing good..:gsmile: |
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| Krypton |
I've got a stock I think everyone should take a long hard look at...
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) $10.21
www.crocs.com
I like Crocs for several reasons.
1. Excellent product line (look on their website)...
2. EXTREMELY low market value.
3. EXTREMELY high valuation.
4. Great fundamentals.
Here is my fundamental analysis...
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 85%
GRADE: B
RATING: BUY
INTRINSIC VALUE: $70-72
TAKE-OVER VALUE: $88-90
The stock has great fundamentals. But what struck me about CROX was how cheap it is. I can not understand CROX being at $10.21. Sure their inventory is up. But look at the product line. Looks great to me! This is my new premier stock. It's not without risk and volatility. BUT, my research tells me the risk is WAY WORTH IT!! I'm estimating 500-700% gains. I'm putting down a lot of my portfolio in it too. FGF will get 17.5% in CROX...:D
Look how cheap CROX is chart-wise...
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I've got a stock I think everyone should take a long hard look at...
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) $10.21
www.crocs.com
I like Crocs for several reasons.
1. Excellent product line (look on their website)...
2. EXTREMELY low market value.
3. EXTREMELY high valuation.
4. Great fundamentals.
Here is my fundamental analysis...
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 85%
GRADE: A-
RATING: STRONG BUY
INTRINSIC VALUE: $70-72
TAKE-OVER VALUE: $88-90
The stock has great fundamentals. But what struck me about CROX was how cheap it is. I can not understand CROX being at $10.21. Sure their inventory is up. But look at the product line. Looks great to me! This is my new premier stock. It's not without risk and volatility. BUT, my research tells me the risk is WAY WORTH IT!! I'm estimating 500-700% gains. I'm putting down a lot of my portfolio in it too. FGF will get 17.5% in CROX...:D
Look how cheap CROX is chart-wise...
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They missed earnings last quarter even if you disregard the one time losses and tanked like 25% that day. They had a loss of .05/share, or .09/share profit when disregarding the one-time charges. The estimate was .10.
It is cheap and it's been fairly flat since the miss. It will be hard for it to fall much more, but I'd wait until a more positive earnings report before dipping my feet in the water. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
They missed earnings last quarter even if you disregard the one time losses and tanked like 25% that day. They had a loss of .05/share, or .09/share profit when disregarding the one-time charges. The estimate was .10.
It is cheap and it's been fairly flat since the miss. It will be hard for it to fall much more, but I'd wait until a more positive earnings report before dipping my feet in the water. |
I'm going to be going along the lines of...
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
* Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Chairman's Letter
This is my attempt to buy a stock at the lowest possible price that I think will skyrocket many fold. I'm bettin a lot of money on it... |
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| mndeg |
| what about the product line? i just thought it was those shoes. i looked on their website and it just seems like the same shoes but with different patterns. the fad is over is what the missed earnings meant. with a company that's all about a trendy product if they start to slow down it's time to bail out. check out the stock for heely's (HLYS) same thing. drop and it's over |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by mndeg
what about the product line? i just thought it was those shoes. i looked on their website and it just seems like the same shoes but with different patterns. the fad is over is what the missed earnings meant. with a company that's all about a trendy product if they start to slow down it's time to bail out. check out the stock for heely's (HLYS) same thing. drop and it's over |
Look closer. They're not all about the sandals with the holes in them anymore. They are diversifying their product line to include new shoe/sandal designs, clothing apparel, etc. Yes, the holey sandals fad may be somewhat over, but I believe they will survive and continue innovating their product line. At $10 a share, I believe CROX is selling at pennies on the dollar. Far too low of a market value in my opinion. |
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| Krypton |
I just changed my rating scale. 85% is no longer an A or STRONG BUY. Here is my new scale...
0.00 - 20% = Possible Short Sell = UTTER FAILURE!!!
20.00 - 45% = Strong Sell = F
45.00 - 60% = Sell =D
60.00 - 75% = Hold = C
75.00 - 90% = Buy = B
90.00% & higher = Strong Buy = A
I talked about CROX earlier and this scale would prevent me investing in CROX. Why? Because I only invest in strong buy's. CROX now is just BUY, whereas before it would have been a strong buy. That is according my fundamental strength algorithm. But I extended this scale across all my algorithms. I want my system to as stringent as possible. Research with my algorithms are like panning for gold in a river. The algorithms are the screen which sift out the gold from the dirt and rocks. Making my scale more stringent is akin to making my sieve much more fine. My STRONG BUY's are in my opinion, the best of the best out of all the thousands of stocks I have looked at. According to my Intrinsic Strength financial model, only 8 stocks are STRONG BUY's. In the last couple months, I have screened through hundreds of stocks. Only to come out with 8 which are the best of the best. 3 other of my algorithms gives me 29, 17, and 21 STRONG BUY's respectively. |
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| mndeg |
| anyone have stock positions based on the idea that america is going to attack iran? it seems kind of inevitable like the war on iraq before 9/11 even happened not that iraq has anything to do with 9/11. |
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| Capitalizt |
It's only inevitable if Mccain wins. In that case, I think America's security will be greatly REDUCED because of the unbelievable hatred another war in the middle east will cause against us. A Mccain presidency will make future terrorist attacks against us much more likely, and I think stocks will be a bad place to be in that situation.
If Obama wins, again I think the general stock market is a bad place to be. We will have a super democratic majority in all branches of government, and the dems just can't wait to raise taxes on investment and businesses, along with increased regulations and controls on their behavior. This will also be very painful for stock market..
We have two huge government parties in Washington...one intent on bankrupting us with military/war spending, and the other that wants to bankrupt us with record entitlement spending and social programs. In either case, the debt will be passing $10 trillion mark over the next 2 years. Our already shaky economy is going to become even more shaky if taxes are increased or we get stuck in another war, so I think the dollar is going to fall off a cliff either way. My advice: If you want to invest, invest in hard assets and companies that HOLD hard assets (commodities)...things that hold value regardless of where the dollar goes.
Oil will soar if Mccain attacks Iran, and gold & silver will soar regardless of who wins, because government spending is never going to stop growing, and there is absolutely no way to pay off a $10 trillion++ debt without debasing the currency and printing money like there's no tomorrow. |
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| mndeg |
Obama has been on the offensive with Iran in his speeches too, not sure if he's doing it to appease the average american or if he's serious about it (You can't be "weak" against terrorism and get elected). He's also signed some house petition or whatever on china's dealing with tibet.
I think it's unfair to label the democrat's stance on the economy as simply tax & spend, I've read articles discussing the candidates and their economic policies and it's more complex than that.
I've wanted to get back into stocks & options but I want my currency to be in australian dollars, still trying to figure out how I'm going to do that. I think most Americans don't realize that they are losing money every year through inflation. Even with your money in a savings account you're still losing money as everything gets more expensive. |
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| Krypton |
| McCain couldn't declare war on Iran because the democratically elected Congress wouldn't allow it. |
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