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so did McCain just blow it? (pg. 195)
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| Lebezniatnikov |
Oh, and the latest polls:
| quote: | Today's Polls, 10/14
Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll.
These are balanced by other results that show the race a hair tighter. Our model now projects that, were an election held today, Obama would win by 8.1 points. It also expects that the race is more likely than not to tighten some.
Nevertheless, we are a full month beyond the Lehman Brothers collapse in mid-September. Obama has enjoyed quite a remarkable run, turning a 2-point deficit into an 8-point advantage. What's especially remarkable about it is that Obama's lead has continued to increase with an eerily consistency. The collapse itself precipitated an almost immediate 3 or 4 point gain in Obama's poll numbers, moving him from a point or so down to a point or so ahead. But since then, Obama has won news cycle after news cycle, adding another two points or so to his national lead every week.
It's fairly unusual for a candidate to have such a sustained run of momentum so deep into the campaign cycle. And it does appear to be real momentum, with some real feedback loops: the worse McCain's poll numbers become, the more desperate his campaign looks, and the more desperate his campaign looks, the worse his poll numbers become.
McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama's lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory.
Let's look at the polls:
The state polls don't present a much brighter picture for McCain. In particular, the Quinnipiac set of polling, showing large leads for Obama in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, is bad news for him. Note that Quinnipiac conducted two separate sets of polling both before and after last week's debate, with the debate only seeming to consolidate Obama's advantage.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, where SurveyUSA has Obama sustaining a 15-point lead, may be joining Michigan as a state which is completely out of reach to McCain. Ohio is still within reach -- and the fact that it's lagging a couple of points behind Obama's national numbers is reason for McCain not to give the state especial concern -- but clearly now seems to lean toward Obama. The Suffolk result in Colorado is a little better for McCain than the Quinnipiac numbers, at least, and PPP has Obama moving slightly off his peak in North Carolina, although that may only be because McCain has finally started to invest resources there that he'd rather be spending everywhere else. The Tarheel State, in other words, has served its purpose for Obama, whether or not he ultimately wins it. |
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008...polls-1014.html
I almost wish this thing would tighten just so it would get interesting again... |
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| Amber Lee |
| What is the format/topic of the debates tomorrow? |
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| delobbo |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
McCain floated a trial balloon out this morning saying that Ayers "will definitely come up as a result of Obama thinking he [McCain] didn't have the courage to do it."
In other words, he's blaming Obama for making the smears national news. |
hmm. I think that would be a(nother) poor move on his part. People are tired of hearing about that stuff. We shall have to see. |
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| ritual |
I'm apprehensive about the election.,
Registered republican but I flipped to Obama.
Flopped to Palin.
Now just unsure.
But anyone is better than "W".:( |
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| woscar99 |
| quote: | Originally posted by ritual
But anyone is better than "W".:( |
Scaringly enough...that is not true :nervous:
Someone who will give Bush's policies continuity can successfully make the finally hit the fan. |
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| paulandrews |
| quote: | Originally posted by Amber Lee
What is the format/topic of the debates tomorrow? |
Alt genocide. |
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| TranceGiant |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
I almost wish this thing would tighten just so it would get interesting again... |
Careful what you wish for...
I'm convinced this will be a tight race. Three weeks times 24 hours is an infinite amount of time in presidential campaign terms. There's no doubt the Republicans have some final secret weapon stored waiting to be detonated. Not to mention Bradley, reverse-Bradley, reverse-reverse-Bradley etc. I know, I know, all of these arguments have been rightfully countered, none of McCain's maneuvers have yet really succeeded. I actually believe the final battle will be inside the voting cabins, between the voters and themselves, their second thoughts, their skepticism, their possible prejudices, their unfounded fears. At that point Obama will have probably done his part of the job and can only HOPE for the best. |
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| delobbo |
Jon Stewart = genius.
er, everyone involved in producing bits like this. |
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| Groundhog Boy |
| quote: | Originally posted by ritual
I'm apprehensive about the election.,
Registered republican but I flipped to Obama.
Flopped to Palin.
Now just unsure.
But anyone is better than "W".:( |
Wait, you thought Palin was better than W? |
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| Alex |
| quote: | Originally posted by paulandrews
Alt genocide. |
:stongue:
You're a hero. |
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| Groundhog Boy |
How un-American, putting our national election ahead of baseball (not to mention it's a game that may never happen).
| quote: | (CNN) – The Republican National Committee took aim at Barack Obama Wednesday over the Illinois senator's half-hour ad buy that will delay the start of a World Series game by 18 minutes.
"It’s unfortunate that the World Series’ first pitch is being delayed for Obama’s political pitch," RNC spokesman Alex Conant said. "Not only is Obama putting politics before principle, he’s putting it before our national pastime.”
Major League Baseball has agreed to a request from Fox to delay the start time of Game 6 of the World Series (if a Game 6 is necessary) so the network can air the 30-minute Obama spot, a Fox spokesman confirms to CNN. The Illinois senator has also bought similar time on CBS and NBC, set to begin at 8 p.m.
“FOX will accommodate Senator Obama's desire to communicate with voters in this…format," Fox spokesman Scott Gorgin said. "We are pleased that Major League Baseball has agreed to delay the first pitch of World Series Game 6 for a few minutes in order for FOX to carry his program on October 29."
It's the first time a presidential candidate has bought that length of airtime on network television since Ross Perot purchased several 30 minute blocs in 1992.
"This is a big platform, this is a big megaphone, the interest level is clearly there and people will watch," Evan Tracey of Campaign Media Analysis Group, CNN's consultant on campaign advertising said.
The October 29 game will now start at 8:38 instead of 8:20.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ld-series-game/ |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
John McCain is using morse code while he blinks during Obama's answers... just watch him. It's hilarious.
(may require CSPAN to see the split screen, don't know if networks are carrying it) |
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